Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

[terrier]

9 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Absolutely horrendous. You couldn’t pick a worst looking chart in high summer if we tried. Next week looks even worse with every model run at the moment.

[Derecho]

The OP is bottom of the barrel stuff for high summer. Only remote crumb of comfort is the ensembles still have no handle over the finer details for this weekend.

Though its more of a question of how bad will it be? Rather then whether it will be bad.

[northwestsnow]

GEM day 10

well at least we are seeing a reduction  in Greenland heights so there is that..

 

 

[IPredictASnowStorm]

The tiniest bit of green to sit on us July is cursed this month hopefully hottest august and September ever

[Guest]

Insanity is poring over every model operational every day expecting a change! The same posters every 6 hours lamenting on the dross on offer

July is written off folks. You win some, you lose some. Hopefully the distant FI charts can tease something better in the days to come, because you'll only see the green snot of doom in the reliable at the moment... The 18z... Tomorrow's 00z... etc

[Sweatyman]

36 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

wow take the Tut why don't it !

[Maz]

21 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

wow take the Tut why don't it !

Upper low and cool air across Canada in close proximity to the Upper high and “heat dome” in USA.  The differential charges up the jet stream which feeds our trough and in turn locks in heat to S Europe.

A persistent pattern.  In a year of persistent patterns.  When will it switch, or will it just merge into a changeable Autumn?  I hope not.

 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Maz said:

Upper low and cool air across Canada in close proximity to the Upper high and “heat dome” in USA.  The differential charges up the jet stream which feeds our trough and in turn locks in heat to S Europe.

A persistent pattern.  In a year of persistent patterns.  When will it switch, or will it just merge into a changeable Autumn?  I hope not.

 

It's a very durable pattern for sure..

I'm a firm believer in cycles though and we'll get an extended dry period in the next 3 months or so..

[Optimus Prime]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It's a very durable pattern for sure..

I'm a firm believer in cycles though and we'll get an extended dry period in the next 3 months or so..

But haven't we just left an extended dry period !!

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

But haven't we just left an extended dry period !!

Yes .

Ended around 4 to 5 weeks ago locally.

Actually about 3

Edited July 17, 2023 by northwestsnow

[cheese]

7 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Exactly this....... 2nd half of August is Autumnal.. not so much weather wise but in nature... swifts have gone, NLCs gone, harvest, longer nights... and as i said, my scented plants are in bloom NOW.
Summer for me isnt just about heat/sun, the banquet that is Summer has far more to offer .

If we end up getting an August like 1995, 2003 or 2022 then I’m sure the vast majority of people won’t care about any of that in the slightest. If anything, good weather during the summer holiday period will benefit more people as that’s when a lot of us have time off & have trips booked. I mean, when have you ever heard anyone say ‘I really can’t enjoy this warm, sunny August weather because the swifts have gone’? 

Can’t be that picky about when we get sunny, warm weather in a country renowned for the opposite. A warm, sunny August will be very welcome. 

Edited July 17, 2023 by cheese

[northwestsnow]

EC also breaking down Greenland heights at day 10...

[Man With Beard]

This may justifiably be called clutching at straws ... but I did have a bit of a "hold on a moment" with the T144 on the ECM

What if the developing trough to the west digs a bit further west than expected and separates from the trough in the North Sea, attracting euro heights just a touch further north?

The south-east, on the face of it, has got close to joining in the heat from Europe a couple of times in the past week, and I'm just wondering if a slight twist could happen to push the heat a bit closer before too long.

Unlikely, sure, but such things have happened before.

This current pattern is a bit anomalous, and anomalous patterns sometimes end a bit surprisingly - which is why I was a little surprised at the Met Office announcing "no heatwave for 4 weeks".

 

 

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, terrier said:

Absolutely horrendous. You couldn’t pick a worst looking chart in high summer if we tried. Next week looks even worse with every model run at the moment.

 Wouldn't mind that chart if changed to 25 Dec.. a potential snow maker.

Alas 25 July and not pleasant, almost a carbon copy of Saturday just gone.

 

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, cheese said:

. I mean, when have you ever heard anyone say ‘I really can’t enjoy this warm, sunny August weather because the swifts have gone’? 

 

Mitchelin star resturant or a maccy d's ?..... The point is thast yes we can enjoy the decent weather but i would enjoy it MORE, a lot more, when my scented summers flowers are out in full bloom like they are now. If you dont care about the others things that make a summer a summer, thats your choice.

Meanwhile things go from bad to worse... These charts have been bang on so far, and this latest suggests conditions get worse, not better as we approach August, but at least Spain cools down (removing the chances of any plume )

IF this chart is anywhere near accurate then theres no heat before the second week of August at the earliest.

[Bristawl Si]

Ties in with UK Meto latest.

[JayAlmeida]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

The Met Office announcing "no heatwave for 4 weeks".

 

 

A loosening of the current vice grip that low-pressure has on us would be a start and then take it from there. Maybe the Metoffice isn't too keen on the AAM rise impacting our weather in an overly positive way. They can be quite bullish trying to predict anything past 2 weeks anyway.

"Starting the period.... we have a low confidence of no certain pattern emerging but more showery especially in the North and West. Potentially locally hot in the South East....etc"

Edited July 17, 2023 by JayAlmeida

[Addicks Fan 1981]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

This may justifiably be called clutching at straws ... but I did have a bit of a "hold on a moment" with the T144 on the ECM

What if the developing trough to the west digs a bit further west than expected and separates from the trough in the North Sea, attracting euro heights just a touch further north?

The south-east, on the face of it, has got close to joining in the heat from Europe a couple of times in the past week, and I'm just wondering if a slight twist could happen to push the heat a bit closer before too long.

Unlikely, sure, but such things have happened before.

This current pattern is a bit anomalous, and anomalous patterns sometimes end a bit surprisingly - which is why I was a little surprised at the Met Office announcing "no heatwave for 4 weeks".

 

 

Think the met office aren't certain of anything and only have information in front of them from GLOSEA, EC monthly and CFS V2 weeklies to be honest, also I think they use JMA weekly too.   

[snowsummer]

10 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Think the met office aren't certain of anything and only have information in front of them from GLOSEA, EC monthly and CFS V2 weeklies to be honest, also I think they use JMA weekly too.   

What are you suggesting? That we have more information on here?!!!! 

[cheese]

39 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Mitchelin star resturant or a maccy d's ?..... The point is thast yes we can enjoy the decent weather but i would enjoy it MORE, a lot more, when my scented summers flowers are out in full bloom like they are now. If you dont care about the others things that make a summer a summer, thats your choice.
 

I have never associated July with blooming flowers so it’s irrelevant to me. May & June are the months I associate with that. July and August are for hot days, balmy summer nights & occasional thunderstorms (or at least they would be in an ideal world). 

But yes, the output still looks gash. 

Edited July 17, 2023 by cheese

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Exactly @JayAlmeidabut I think the UKMO need more evidence in front of them.  Currently they are playing it very safe and worried that low pressure could attack at any time.   This week was meant to be below average but got upgraded to around average.   

Shows that they are struggling to get a firm handle on things, sometimes I think they use backdated information, but eventually play catch up so the information eventually becomes more accurate.   

I did notice that the NAO is set to become neutral, the MJO more active and the AO to enter positive territory.   Also the PNA is in the positive area at the moment, now I'm not sure what that entails and @MattHmight help me with that.    

On a side note I thank him for his excellent post this morning.    

[alexisj9]

7 minutes ago, cheese said:

I have never associated July with blooming flowers so it’s irrelevant to me. May & June are the months I associate with that. 

I have plenty just coming up, probably cause if the cold may mind, I have some sort of small sun flower or big daisy flowering now, got something else that I don't know what it is, just budding now, things that normally flower in may, flowered in June plus my wild flower patch is only just starting to look how it should, will probably look better next year though. 

Edited July 17, 2023 by alexisj9

[Scorcher]

2 hours ago, cheese said:

If we end up getting an August like 1995, 2003 or 2022 then I’m sure the vast majority of people won’t care about any of that in the slightest. If anything, good weather during the summer holiday period will benefit more people as that’s when a lot of us have time off & have trips booked. I mean, when have you ever heard anyone say ‘I really can’t enjoy this warm, sunny August weather because the swifts have gone’? 

Can’t be that picky about when we get sunny, warm weather in a country renowned for the opposite. A warm, sunny August will be very welcome. 

Of course anyone would welcome a hot August- last August was superb.

I think the point Mushy is making is that July is true peak summer- in August the days gradually shorten and the sun gets lower- particularly in the 2nd half.

I know I would certainly choose a hot July over a hot August.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

39 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Mitchelin star resturant or a maccy d's ?..... The point is thast yes we can enjoy the decent weather but i would enjoy it MORE, a lot more, when my scented summers flowers are out in full bloom like they are now. If you dont care about the others things that make a summer a summer, thats your choice.

Meanwhile things go from bad to worse... These charts have been bang on so far, and this latest suggests conditions get worse, not better as we approach August, but at least Spain cools down (removing the chances of any plume )

IF this chart is anywhere near accurate then theres no heat before the second week of August at the earliest.

There does seem to be reluctance from NOAA to shift the goal posts as if it were, they are being incredibly cautious currently and seem worried about getting criticised if it all goes pear shaped.   

[cheese]

4 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Of course anyone would welcome a hot August- last August was superb.

I think the point Mushy is making is that July is true peak summer- in August the days gradually shorten and the sun gets lower- particularly in the 2nd half.

I know I would certainly choose a hot July over a hot August.

Yeah I’d take a hot July over a hot August, but I’d also take a hot August over a hot June. We had 5 days in a row above 30C last August - you’ll never get anything like that in June up here. 

Edited July 17, 2023 by cheese