Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Have to say it but the start of September now doesn't look as good now as what it did yesterday on the GFS 12Z operational run in 8 days time.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

To me it looks like an undercutting low trying to interfere with the proceedings of the south atlantic and European ridges coming together.   

 

[terrier]

10 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Have to say it but the start of September now doesn't look as good now as what it did yesterday on the GFS 12Z operational run in 8 days time.   

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

To me it looks like an undercutting low trying to interfere with the proceedings of the south atlantic and European ridges coming together.   

 

To be honest I think tonight’s GFS12z looks a lot better than this mornings GFS output from around middle of next week things settle down with a high pressure building in for the end of next week and into the weekend of the 1st of September onwards.  

[Addicks Fan 1981]

6 minutes ago, terrier said:

To be honest I think tonight’s GFS12z looks a lot better than this mornings GFS output from around middle of next week things settle down with a high pressure building in for the end of next week and into the weekend of the 1st of September onwards.  

Thank you @terrier for that and it is good that I'm monitoring more the charts when I can.  According to NOAA prognostic discussion we need to be following the ECMWF 0Z ensemble mean at the moment as the best out there as things stand.    We also need @mushymanrobhere I feel currently to post the anomoly charts.    

[mushymanrob]

1 minute ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

.    We also need @mushymanrobhere I feel currently to post the anomoly charts.    

no you dont, they are freely available and most of you can read them! lol ... they are pointing towards a very ordinary average spell from next weekend onwards

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Cheers @mushymanrobfor that and I need to notice where they are and that.   Very average pretty much continues off from what we've had this summer, and on a broad scale as well.   

[ANYWEATHER]

Is that the Phantom Azores high

Better late than never!

Edited August 24, 2023 by ANYWEATHER

[Addicks Fan 1981]

2 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Is that the Phantom Azores high

Probably @ANYWEATHERand to be honest we need a good September so people can fit in some early autumn walks in.    

[stodge]

Evening all

Once again we move into that time of year when ex-tropical features can play their part (often indirectly) in our weather.

Frankin will become a Major Hurricane when it passes west of Bermuda and hile it's basically a fish storm it will get close to Newfoundland after the weekend and then head into the Atlantic as an extra-tropical LP putting some energy into the jet, lowering heights over Greenland and allowing the Azores HP to finally get its act together and ridge across us later next week.

From there, who knows? GFS 12Z OP transfers the Azores HP quickly into Scandinavia and then further east and the trough fills the gap. GEM, on the other hand, brings the remnants of Frankin for a visit.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

3 minutes ago, stodge said:

Evening all

Once again we move into that time of year when ex-tropical features can play their part (often indirectly) in our weather.

Frankin will become a Major Hurricane when it passes west of Bermuda and hile it's basically a fish storm it will get close to Newfoundland after the weekend and then head into the Atlantic as an extra-tropical LP putting some energy into the jet, lowering heights over Greenland and allowing the Azores HP to finally get its act together and ridge across us later next week.

From there, who knows? GFS 12Z OP transfers the Azores HP quickly into Scandinavia and then further east and the trough fills the gap. GEM, on the other hand, brings the remnants of Frankin for a visit.

Know what you are saying but apparently AAM is programmed to rise as well.   It feels as though we are in unknown territory with our warm Atlantic and el niño combination.   

[stodge]

Just now, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Know what you are saying but apparently AAM is programmed to rise as well.   It feels as though we are in unknown territory with our warm Atlantic and el niño combination.   

Indeed - my point is the models may well struggle with this unusual combination of factors in trying to come up with plausible evolutions.

If we aren't certain about how Franklin is going to play at T+168 we can't take too much notice of the rest of the output.

My personal view is the warmer SSTs may well encourage tropical development further north and east from what we might expect - we have seen, for instance, tropical features move to the Azores or even the Canaries and these serve to displace the usual HP systems further north but these in turn become more elongated as they interact with the jet stream.

I'm NOT suggesting we'll see hurricanes - we know of Medicanes for example - but what I am suggesting is tropical characteristics surviving longer over the warmer waters and the transitioning to more standard LP features happening later and nearer to our shores.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

The NAO going positive into September is a good sign of something a bit more settled.   

[Alderc 2.0]

7 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

The NAO going positive into September is a good sign of something a bit more settled.   

Lol been hearing this line of it getting more settled for two months now. 

20yrs of model watching tells when I see mass ensemble scatter like this the outcome is rarely settled.

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Well the Bank Holiday period is upon us...I can't promise you glorious conditions,but perhaps some usable weather at times! The bulk of the showers further North and West,with the South and SE drier and brighter...temps only around average at best for brighter locations and perhaps below for wetter locations.

Today's ECM ens do encourage me a tad...yes there's scatter which seems the normal these days...but the op becomes much warmer later...and the pressure charts also hint at drier more settled conditions....with I feel a growing cluster of ens moving in that direction.

I can't promise you a late Summer early Autumn heatwave...but perhaps something a tad more summary.

So I bid you all a fantastic holiday period and a safe and healthy one folks.

Let's hope for something better as we move into September,with the models hinting at it.

Or as Donald trumps mugshot picture shows...you better be not leading me up the bloody garden path again

Edited August 25, 2023 by MATTWOLVES 3

[northwestsnow]

Fingers crossed for improvements into Sept.

Personally I'm going to spend more time in the winter thread moving forward  ,its  late August its all about Winter now

[alexisj9]

58 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Well the Bank Holiday period is upon us...I can't promise you glorious conditions,but perhaps some usable weather at times! The bulk of the showers further North and West,with the South and SE drier and brighter...temps only around average at best for brighter locations and perhaps below for wetter locations.

Today's ECM ens do encourage me a tad...yes there's scatter which seems the normal these days...but the op becomes much warmer later...and the pressure charts also hint at drier more settled conditions....with I feel a growing cluster of ens moving in that direction.

I can't promise you a late Summer early Autumn heatwave...but perhaps something a tad more summary.

So I bid you all a fantastic holiday period and a safe and healthy one folks.

Let's hope for something better as we move into September,with the models hinting at it.

Or as Donald trumps mugshot picture shows...you better be not leading me up the bloody garden path again

Is looking like that in a mug shot a good idea, lol. I know it was more for what he's used it for, but really it kind of proves the prosecutor's case. Anyway, in the short to medium term those Ens are looking quite smooth for a change.

[sheikhy]

37 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Fingers crossed for improvements into Sept.

Personally I'm going to spend more time in the winter thread moving forward  ,its  late August its all about Winter now

I said the same thing 2 weeks ago buddy im done with the summer!temp wise it was okay around here but in terms of rain it was defo one of the worst summers ive had in the last few years!im gona save all my efforts and all the beast from the east charts and whinning for the winter thread !Our time is near northwest snow🌬!!!

[TSNWK]

12 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

I said the same thing 2 weeks ago buddy im done with the summer!temp wise it was okay around here but in terms of rain it was defo one of the worst summers ive had in the last few years!im gona save all my efforts and all the beast from the east charts and whinning for the winter thread !Our time is near northwest snow🌬!!!

Looking forward to exclamation marks @sheikhy

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Not a bad bank holiday at all according to the GFS 6Z, think the only subtle difference from the other days is that the winds are coming from a NW direction, but still with a mid Atlantic ridge and for that reason alone I'm not complaining.    

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

 

[legion_quest]

I'm really not seeing signs of anything more settled or summer like in the charts, just more of the same scatter that shows they aren't really sure what might come down on us, but at least the hope-casting keeps spirits up! 

[Ajsnowy]

Really hoping the models start showing some potential for stormy, windy and rainy autumn ahead.

[Scorcher]

It doesn't look at all like we're going to get the traditional pressure build for the kids going back to school- just more of the same rubbish we've been seeing for most of the last 7/8 weeks.

Hard to remember a more prolonged spell so devoid of interest in summer.

Even 2012 had a brief warm spell in early September and 2007 had plenty of settled weather. It's not looking likely we'll get that at all this year.

[Dorsetbred]

18 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

It doesn't look at all like we're going to get the traditional pressure build for the kids going back to school- just more of the same rubbish we've been seeing for most of the last 7/8 weeks.

Hard to remember a more prolonged spell so devoid of interest in summer.

I've seen this comment so many times, AND YET, back in 2013 Sky made this comment

Weather: 'Wet Summers To Last 10 More Years'

NEWS.SKY.COM

---

Britain could be in the middle of a long-term cycle of wet summers caused by a major warming of the North Atlantic ocean.

Maybe people remember  this and accept 2023 is not exceptional as an unsettled summer.

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, Dorsetbred said:

Maybe people remember  this and accept 2023 is not exceptional as an unsettled summer.

No...my point is it's been uninteresting...which it has. And in my part of the country it has been much much duller than average sunshine-wise since June. We scraped over 100 hours in July and we're still under 100 hours for August (up to yesterday).

Sunshine wise it has been very dull here- even for an unsettled summer. The stats speak for themselves.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Looking like an undercutting low developing here for the start of September according to GFS 12Z operational.    

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=6

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

It doesn't look at all like we're going to get the traditional pressure build for the kids going back to school- just more of the same rubbish we've been seeing for most of the last 7/8 weeks.

Only has a 50/50 success rate though anyway so I guess we’re in a run of years with less settled school returns. 
 

Still quite warm uppers around despite low pressure though so in brighter spells it’d undoubtedly feel nice, and possibly sunnier than if we had an anticyclone.

Personally I’d like to see some thundery activity. August normally brings a decent number of thunder days here but the weathers been so benign this year… nothing!