Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

[Derecho]

A few people here mentioning hurricane Lee, however the low to the SW of the Azores is tropical storm Margot (likely to become a hurricane). Initially this was due to curve much further east but the models have changed in recent days.

Hurricane Lee on the other hand could well become a cat 5 and will be further west then Margot. When this heads towards Newfoundland, there could be a fujiwara effect with Margot if the two storms get close.

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Until the models get a good handle of these two storms, confidence on next weeks weather will be very low. However it will turn cooler from Monday.

[Rain All Night]

6 hours ago, bryan629 said:

This one will be named Margot. 

Sounds like you were right 

[alexisj9]

48 minutes ago, Carl said:

100% with you. 

Do wish the weather forecasters on tv wouldn't editorialise and assume we're all "loving it". We're not all comfortable in these conditions.

Bring on some cold weather!

Some normal weather would do.

[Carl]

16 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Some normal weather would do.

Wonder if more extremes and a higher average temp is the new normal, certainly seems that way from recent trends and the global spread of these events.

Wondering also what effect the North Atlantic SST anomaly is going to have over autumn and winter.

Still off the charts!

 

[Don]

11 minutes ago, Carl said:

Wonder if more extremes and a higher average temp is the new normal, certainly seems that way from recent trends and the global spread of these events.

Wondering also what effect the North Atlantic SST anomaly is going to have over autumn and winter.

Still off the charts!

 

At this rate, companies who manufacturer wet suits will be getting rather worried!

As to what implications the North Atlantic SST's will have on winter, hopefully an Atlantic high ridging into Greenland!

[alexisj9]

28 minutes ago, Don said:

At this rate, companies who manufacturer wet suits will be getting rather worried!

As to what implications the North Atlantic SST's will have on winter, hopefully an Atlantic high ridging into Greenland!

I'm more worried about before winter, tbh. Still we'll see what happens. My thinking is the jet stream will pack a punch with its storms this year, 

[Mark wheeler]

Oh . Just for fun. Lets all go to Ben Nevis .

[Don]

Just now, Mark wheeler said:

Oh . Just for fun. Lets all go to Ben Nevis .

Beautiful charts, just a shame it's only 15 days away!

[raz.org.rain]

1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

Oh . Just for fun. Lets all go to Ben Nevis .

I'm sure they were churning out (likely outlier) charts a few weeks ago saying early September would see cold like this, they definitely got it pretty darned wrong there!

[WeatherWatchmanG]

10 minutes ago, Don said:

Beautiful charts, just a shame it's only 15 days away!

no thanks no just no we dont want that.

[Cheshire Freeze]

16 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Oh . Just for fun. Lets all go to Ben Nevis .

A Scottish air frost associated with that

Some lovely seasonal temperatures associated with it too

The first 528 DAM chart of the season too

We can dream 

 

Edited September 7, 2023 by Cheshire Freeze

[seb]

6 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

I'm more worried about before winter, tbh. Still we'll see what happens. My thinking is the jet stream will pack a punch with its storms this year, 

If the latest GFS is anything to go by, of course unlikely to verify as in deepest FI, then you might be on to something...

Storm #1 around the 18th

Storm #2 around the 23rd

Storm #3 looks like the same track a few days later

Gusts of 75mph along the South Coast, sustained 10m winds of 50mph and >200m of rain in some areas.

 

 

Edited September 8, 2023 by seb

[mb018538]

ARPEGE is showing a wide area of 34-35c on Sunday.....which looks incredibly optimistic. I think something closer to 33c in one or two spots, but an area that wide seeing above 34c just isn't going to happen.

[seb]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

ARPEGE is showing a wide area of 34-35c on Sunday.....which looks incredibly optimistic. I think something closer to 33c in one or two spots, but an area that wide seeing above 34c just isn't going to happen.

Not sure if overly optimistic. 32.6 was the official high temp yesterday. For a whole swathe of the SE there are no official stations but even here where we are always a degree or two lower due to a limited see breeze we reached an unofficial 32.1. By Sunday the ground will be even more dry, there's another push of hot air from the South.

Wouldn't write it off. It's only about 2.5 degrees more than yesterday.

[cheese]

6 hours ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

A Scottish air frost associated with that

Some lovely seasonal temperatures associated with it too

The first 528 DAM chart of the season too

We can dream 

 

Those maximum temperatures would be well below average for September though so I don’t think seasonal is the right word. 

[Weather-history]

Crikey, GFS 0z ends up an absolute  soaking

[mountain shadow]

A classicly zonal GFS 0z run there, with plenty of rain and strong winds.

 

[Gordon Webb]

38 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ARPEGE is showing a wide area of 34-35c on Sunday.....which looks incredibly optimistic. I think something closer to 33c in one or two spots, but an area that wide seeing above 34c just isn't going to happen.

it should be pointed out this is mainly E Midlands Eastwards & SE England and nowhere else

Edited September 8, 2023 by Gordon Webb

[mb018538]

A complete change from the UKV, which now shows cloud, showers and storms breaking out on Sunday....with 30c just squeaking out around the Sheffield area.
No 33-34c here! 

[mb018538]

ECM 00z also has these storms, but concentrates them more in the west and north - allowing the E/SE corner to really heat up. 33c showing on here, which in rality could mean a degree or so higher. Looks like it's a bit of a knife edge situation.

[SunSean]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM 00z also has these storms, but concentrates them more in the west and north - allowing the E/SE corner to really heat up. 33c showing on here, which in rality could mean a degree or so higher. Looks like it's a bit of a knife edge situation.

Considering I finally have a few days off work to enjoy the weather, you can guarantee that Sunday will be a soaker for all and today will be cloudy all day lol. I am like the curse this year.

[Nick2373]

 

00z wow talk about back to earth with a bump looks amazing from the 17th onward if its rain and wind you after.  This tie's in with the jet stream being forecast right over the UK from the 16th of September 

[seb]

This is a nightmare for the models and I would agree with some other posters that a large part of it is down to the record SSTs.

Spot the difference between GFS and ECM for the 18th (feel free to do the same comparison much earlier than that...)

 

[Carl]

9 hours ago, Don said:

At this rate, companies who manufacturer wet suits will be getting rather worried!

As to what implications the North Atlantic SST's will have on winter, hopefully an Atlantic high ridging into Greenland!

Can only hope so!

Looking like we're going to be around 16 degrees here during the day midweek, should make a huge difference!

[ANYWEATHER]

Long way off ten days ,but perhaps we may be pulling out some stormy weather out of the bag ,judging by the volitility from the models , .........