Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023

[Thunders]

This all happens as airborne gets underway 

[Mcconnor8]

20 minutes ago, Thunders said:

Or just hit me, then Brighton and bexhill get the storm

This is for tomorrow right. And tomorrow evening

Wouldn't expect that much thunder/lightning during the day tomorrow, main action window should be from 10/11PM - 2/3AM

Edited August 17, 2023 by Mcconnor8

[LightningLover]

20 minutes ago, Thunders said:

Or just hit me, then Brighton and bexhill get the storm

This is for tomorrow right. And tomorrow evening

Thing is, if a thunderstorm hits that area and trundles N/NNE, it will miss Bexhill as it goes over the south downs to our North instead! Happens often.

[Ben Sainsbury]

2 hours ago, Thunders said:

live in Eastbourne, just east of Brighton,  would i still be able to see the storms if they were to hit n/nne of Brighton

They would be moving up from the south, so yes I think you might do quite well if all goes to plan. I'll have a think about whether it's worth chasing, but if I were Eastbourne would be a good shout.

[Sprites]

I wonder if it's worth driving down to Margate, from Thurso? 

[Badgers01]

What about Surrey ? Looks like we might be in with a chance ?

[Thunders]

13 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

They would be moving up from the south, so yes I think you might do quite well if all goes to plan. I'll have a think about whether it's worth chasing, but if I were Eastbourne would be a good shout.

yeah thanks, trying to keep my streak of seeing at least 2 storms a year 

[Ben Sainsbury]

18 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

What about Surrey ? Looks like we might be in with a chance ?

As it stands, I'd expect any lightning would be to the south and east of you and moving away all the time. Therefore, the risk of any lightning overhead is low but not nil.

[Badgers01]

4 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

As it stands, I'd expect any lightning would be to the south and east of you and moving away all the time. Therefore, the risk of any lightning overhead is low but not nil.

Thanks for the info  

[Harry's House]

Don't know what the chances are of much if any thundery activity at Hamstreet, SW of Ashford. Been here for over a month now and still no thunder heard or lightning seen yet.

[Ben Sainsbury]

3 minutes ago, Harry's House said:

Don't know what the chances are of much if any thundery activity at Hamstreet, SW of Ashford. Been here for over a month now and still no thunder heard or lightning seen yet.

For similar setups like tomorrow night, elevated thunderstorms generally are most active across far SE UK (East Sussex/Kent). Therefore, I'd like to think you're in a pretty good position as it stands!

[Harry]

Interesting that the MetOffice only has a warning out for thunderstorms for 06:00 until 12:00 tomorrow. Perhaps like us they’re too baffled by the current model uncertainty 

[snowrye]

20 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

For similar setups like tomorrow night, elevated thunderstorms generally are most active across far SE UK (East Sussex/Kent). Therefore, I'd like to think you're in a pretty good position as it stands!

No doubt another Kent clipper lol

[Ben Sainsbury]

11 minutes ago, Harry said:

Interesting that the MetOffice only has a warning out for thunderstorms for 06:00 until 12:00 tomorrow. Perhaps like us they’re too baffled by the current model uncertainty 

Quite possibly but also, the thunderstorms at 06:00-12:00 will pose a risk to those travelling to work during rush hour etc. Whereas overnight thunderstorms pose much less of a risk to safety.

Edited August 17, 2023 by Ben Sainsbury

[Supacell]

Met Office warnings for tomorrow night's possibilities will probably be released tomorrow morning. I'd imagine too much uncertainty at this stage to put out a warning.

[minus10]

1 hour ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

As it stands, I'd expect any lightning would be to the south and east of you and moving away all the time. Therefore, the risk of any lightning overhead is low but not nil.

Oh dear.... not good news for those of us in north western home counties...although latest ukv still shows a chance..

[CoventryWeather]

I'm kind of expecting a westwards shift possibly this afternoon/evening - in past events, models trend eastwards to later push the front in slightly slower and therefore end with a westwards shift. Noticed too some are linking this similar to that of last May - I had a relatively distant show if I remember that event right. 

[Mcconnor8]

15 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Oh dear.... not good news for those of us in north western home counties...although latest ukv still shows a chance..

UKV/UKMO is still out on its own with how deep it makes the low, below 985 mB, versus over 990mB for every other model so we will see.

[CoventryWeather]

Just now, Mcconnor8 said:

UKV/UKMO is still out on its own with how deep it makes the low, below 985 mB, versus over 990mB for every other model so we will see.

Just out of question. Would the slightly higher pressure mean a westwards shift or generally a similar path?

[Mcconnor8]

Just now, CoventryWeather said:

Just out of question. Would the slightly higher pressure mean a westwards shift or generally a similar path?

Looks like the UKV is more westward with the extent of the thunderstorms as a result of the lower pressure leading to a more unstable environment, even though the track of the low is actually slightly more east across Ireland than most models have it.

[Thunderspotter]

It's been a while since I was last here, I guess it's been a very quiet summer (at least for me!).

I've got high hopes for tomorrow morning, but I have to decide later if its worth setting an early alarm to get up and start tracking it...

 

 

[Alderc 2.0]

Some showery activity breaking out on radar over Cherbourg. Absolutely nothing on UKV.

l

[Ryan H]

I had taken Sat24 image that shows the low pressure heading towards us and storms in Europe.

Edited August 17, 2023 by Ryan H

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

7 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Having a look at the models, tomorrow morning I have questions over how frequent on lightning will be. I'm expecting lightning to be relatively infrequent, but further S, say in the vicinity of IOW, (where instability is likely to be higher before fizzling out) there may be more frequent lightning for a time.

Tomorrow night is the main show, albeit only for the SE/E England. My best guess for a good lightning show would anywhere NNE-E of Brighton. Sporadic lightning further west, but at this point the majority of lightning will always be within the high Theta-W airmass.

There’s a place called Glynde, near Firle - saw a bonkers lightning show from there a few years back - one of my best chases.

Probably too busy (and financially restricted) for a chase this time, not the end of the world if it misses us - hopefully lots more chances as we move into autumn

[Thunderspotter]

1 minute ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

Some showery activity breaking out on radar over Cherbourg. Absolutely nothing on UKV.

l

Looks interesting! I'm guessing that it'll die out overtime though before it reaches (UK) land?