Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023

[Shaunado]

The SE regional forecast from Meto is going for thundery showers tomorrow pm. 

[camturbo]

3 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

I don't have the money to do so, me and Jay have a Twitter for the forecasts.

 

I also work with Handry for his forecasts as well.

Keep it up fella at least your trying,some may feel that it hasnt in their back yard. It's a forecast it's a possibility of a probability that may happen.  Keep it up anyway 

[Supacell]

Considering the amount of off topic posts we get on this thread it seems a bit strange to be pulling @Eagle Eye up on his forecasts, which are amongst the most on-topic, useful and helpful posts on here.

I get the theory that his forecasts may get buried in the masses of posts on busy days but this is just part and parcel of a busy forum. I personally scan through looking for the more informative posts on busy days, but admittedly miss some.

As for forecasts being raised for low risk days... a low risk is still a risk.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 hours ago, Metwatch said:

That looks like a lavender field and I've recently discovered one quite close to home, so maybe I could get a shot of some shelf cloud / CG lightning with the lavender in the future.

I recall a couple of years back I went up towards Cambridge to chase what turned out to be a fairly decent storm system - but the thing I remember most about it is that all the fields were yellow because of a protracted dry spell, and it really contracted against the deep purpley blue of the heavy clouds. The photos are about somewhere but I’ll have to dig them out

[Metwatch]

55 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I recall a couple of years back I went up towards Cambridge to chase what turned out to be a fairly decent storm system - but the thing I remember most about it is that all the fields were yellow because of a protracted dry spell, and it really contracted against the deep purpley blue of the heavy clouds. The photos are about somewhere but I’ll have to dig them out

My best guess is that would have been during July 2018, or maybe 2020 late spring / early summer?

During the strongest storm locally here this year, (11th June) it came after a few weeks of dryness, so if I had left earlier to chase it and find a spot, rather than drive into it just outside Coventry, might have caught something similar. It looked extremly ominous shortly before.

The grass started to become a little yellow in places beforehand. Caused a lot of flash flooding when the rain hit that very dry ground during that evening.

Edited August 13, 2023 by Metwatch

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook 

SBCAPE in excess of 500 J/KG with the 50+ J/KG 3CAPE threshold being reached along the back edge of a left tilted Theta-E tongue. Fairly strong hydrolyse rates again suggest some more well formed storms, mainly concentrated in the slight risk.

This is supported by good DLS and so a Supercell cannot be ruled out. If a Supercell does form then it'll make the most of the MLCAPE available and substantially increase near severe hail chances. May also mean a funnel or tornado is possible given that its riding close to the front with the increased gravity wave and momentum forcing.

Cells look close together enough for some potential exchange of momentum. When they form in a line along a strong PV lobe, the funnel cloud and tornado potential is slightly heightened. Though still too low for a severe to be introduced.

The timing of cell formation is probably early afternoon moving NE mainly across the slight into the evening. Before moving off into the North Sea.

[Marcus_surfer]

Radar looks quite interesting, very wet night here for sure. Could see a rumble of thunder maybe?

[Eagle Eye]

7 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

Radar looks quite interesting, very wet night here for sure. Could see a rumble of thunder maybe?

The slight risk from earlier today still stands till 6am then the latest one uploaded kicks in.

Here's the old slight risk

[Martz86]

57 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

The slight risk from earlier today still stands till 6am then the latest one uploaded kicks in.

Here's the old slight risk

Bang on with that one in the South West, seems to be dieing off now though. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:

Convective Outlook 

SBCAPE in excess of 500 J/KG with the 50+ J/KG 3CAPE threshold being reached along the back edge of a left tilted Theta-E tongue. Fairly strong hydrolyse rates again suggest some more well formed storms, mainly concentrated in the slight risk.

This is supported by good DLS and so a Supercell cannot be ruled out. If a Supercell does form then it'll make the most of the MLCAPE available and substantially increase near severe hail chances. May also mean a funnel or tornado is possible given that its riding close to the front with the increased gravity wave and momentum forcing.

Cells look close together enough for some potential exchange of momentum. When they form in a line along a strong PV lobe, the funnel cloud and tornado potential is slightly heightened. Though still too low for a severe to be introduced.

The timing of cell formation is probably early afternoon moving NE mainly across the slight into the evening. Before moving off into the North Sea.

Aligns with the UKWW forecasts I’ve been reading… shame it’s another ‘oop north’ event

[Sprites]

MCV ? 

 

 

Edited August 14, 2023 by Sprites

[Eagle Eye]

ECM at it again with 5000+ J/KG of MUCAPE in some areas.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

5 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

ECM at it again with 5000+ J/KG of MUCAPE in some areas.

Stop it!!

[Jamie M]

ECM also models a neat little V notch on a storm up north 

[The Tall Weatherman]

A substantial amount of Cape this afternoon around Central/Northern England. Would not be surprised to see an active storm or two somewhere near the Vicinity of Leeds stretching down to Lincolnshire. Also some slight hodograph curvature on the WRF 16z sounding later that could indicate something in the lines of Rotation ?

[CoventryWeather]

24 minutes ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

A substantial amount of Cape this afternoon around Central/Northern England. Would not be surprised to see an active storm or two somewhere near the Vicinity of Leeds stretching down to Lincolnshire. Also some slight hodograph curvature on the WRF 16z sounding later that could indicate something in the lines of Rotation ?

Not expecting much activity down here, but interesting day none the less. Think a couple of semi-active storms could be possible if they develop in the sheared environment. 

[Turquoise]

another day of being in the biggest risk warning area, and its been a glorious sunny day....*sigh*. water is wet.

[Chris.R]

Thunder 3 miles to the south 15 minutes ago. Clearing away now,( no more since.

Edited August 14, 2023 by Chris.R

[Jamie M]

If only UKV was right

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I think there should be a blanket ban on any talk of any storm that is north of the M4 - at least until July

17 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

If only UKV was right

 

[Chris.R]

14 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I think there should be a blanket ban on any talk of any storm that is north of the M4 - at least until July

 

I always wanted a northern convective thread but nobody was ever interested.

[Aiden2012]

Guessing the storms are not really happening today. ?

[Chris.R]

6 minutes ago, Aiden2012 said:

Guessing the storms are not really happening today. ?

Except JUST to the south of me so far yes. You might still have a chance though.

Edited August 14, 2023 by Chris.R

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

I always wanted a northern convective thread but nobody was ever interested.

It would be too busy

[Jamie M]

 

Casual 100 mm + over East Kent in 12 hours