Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook ️

Ahead of an occluded front tracking into W parts of Ireland, showers and t-storms will develop. 

These showers will affect Scotland, Ireland & N England.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I guess if the stats about a rapidly warming planet are on point then we shouldn’t be surprised to see models predicting more violent storms, like they are doing for next week and beyond. But we’ve been here before, and usually it’s downgraded to a moderate risk of something less remarkable, then on the day something usually scuppers it

[WeatherArc]

1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I guess if the stats about a rapidly warming planet are on point then we shouldn’t be surprised to see models predicting more violent storms, like they are doing for next week and beyond. But we’ve been here before, and usually it’s downgraded to a moderate risk of something less remarkable, then on the day something usually scuppers it

It's an interesting thought, i've always wondered how global warming will affect thunderstorms in the UK, i mean we know a hotter atmosphere can hold more moisture so maybe higher dewpoints and PWAT values will become a part of summer. 

I also agree with you about next week but i can dream 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

11 minutes ago, WeatherArc said:

It's an interesting thought, i've always wondered how global warming will affect thunderstorms in the UK, i mean we know a hotter atmosphere can hold more moisture so maybe higher dewpoints and PWAT values will become a part of summer. 

I also agree with you about next week but i can dream 

Yes, I’m up for the exciting prospect of a notable event - just conditioned to be extremely cautious about the chances of everything coming together to make it happen on the day

[wimblettben]

2 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I guess if the stats about a rapidly warming planet are on point then we shouldn’t be surprised to see models predicting more violent storms, like they are doing for next week and beyond. But we’ve been here before, and usually it’s downgraded to a moderate risk of something less remarkable, then on the day something usually scuppers it

Quite a few charts on here overdo many things with the weather.

Quite often wind forecasts for example are way overdone with gusts alway's showing 70mph+ yet it almost always ends up just being 30-40mph, and this is just at a day or so out.

So I highly doubt these charts will verify, and I don't wan't them too either because it would be way overboard and not needed and for interesting thundery weather you only need storms to be able to produce a decent amount of lightning and not golf ball sized hail.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

17 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

Quite a few charts on here overdo many things with the weather.

Quite often wind forecasts for example are way overdone with gusts alway's showing 70mph+ yet it almost always ends up just being 30-40mph, and this is just at a day or so out.

So I highly doubt these charts will verify, and I don't wan't them too either because it would be way overboard and not needed and for interesting thundery weather you only need storms to be able to produce a decent amount of lightning and not golf ball sized hail.

Can’t stop the weather doing it’s thing!

[Arnie Pie]

1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Can’t stop the weather doing it’s thing!

 we`ve been here before

Edited August 11, 2023 by Arnie Pie

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

5 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

 we`ve been here before

Not with cows like that

[cheese]

1 hour ago, wimblettben said:

Quite a few charts on here overdo many things with the weather.

Quite often wind forecasts for example are way overdone with gusts alway's showing 70mph+ yet it almost always ends up just being 30-40mph, and this is just at a day or so out.

So I highly doubt these charts will verify, and I don't wan't them too either because it would be way overboard and not needed and for interesting thundery weather you only need storms to be able to produce a decent amount of lightning and not golf ball sized hail.

I wouldn’t necessarily want golf ball size hail but I would love a tropical-style thunderstorm with almost constant CG strikes and very loud thunder. Tropical thunderstorms are my absolute favourite.

Take this thunderstorm in Kuala Lumpur for example:

 

Edited August 11, 2023 by cheese

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

6 minutes ago, cheese said:

I wouldn’t necessarily want golf ball size hail but I would love a tropical-style thunderstorm with almost constant CG strikes and very loud thunder. Tropical thunderstorms are my absolute favourite.

Take this thunderstorm in Kuala Lumpur for example:

 

Absolutely amazing thanks for sharing this

[Allseasons-Si]

24 minutes ago, cheese said:

I wouldn’t necessarily want golf ball size hail but I would love a tropical-style thunderstorm with almost constant CG strikes and very loud thunder. Tropical thunderstorms are my absolute favourite.

Take this thunderstorm in Kuala Lumpur for example:

 

I enjoyed watching that,...thanks 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

2 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Can’t stop the weather doing it’s thing!

I must have missed this ...

49 minutes ago, cheese said:

I wouldn’t necessarily want golf ball size hail but I would love a tropical-style thunderstorm with almost constant CG strikes and very loud thunder. Tropical thunderstorms are my absolute favourite.

Take this thunderstorm in Kuala Lumpur for example:

 

That's a beauty!!! The best I've ever seen!!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

We flew over a storm on the way out of a Kuala Lumpur back in 2004 (I think!) after a few weeks travelling through Malaysia. I don’t think we had a single storm while there - but as the plane banked on the way home I was literally looking down into the centre of a huge CB … it was unbelievable

Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

We flew over a storm on the way out of a Kuala Lumpur back in 2004 (I think!) after a few weeks travelling through Malaysia. I don’t think we had a single storm while there - but as the plane banked on the way home I was literally looking down into the centre of a huge CB … it was unbelievable

edit - this does raise the question … are thunderclouds hollow? If you look down into one from above can you see into the downdraught? Is the anvil flat on the top?

[Scuba steve]

3 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Can’t stop the weather doing it’s thing!

Surely that’s a volcanic plume 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

4 minutes ago, Scuba steve said:

Surely that’s a volcanic plume 

Or a moo fart

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook ️

Widespread cells will develop across England, Scotland & Ireland where a few rumbles/strikes could be seen.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop across N Ireland up to the Glasgow area & N Scotland.

[Woodboss]

On 10/08/2023 at 20:27, Eagle Eye said:

Oh my, imagine if this came off or even just similar.  We can dream right?

The last chart you posted certainly grabs my attention. 2-3000j/kg cape is very high for anywhere in this country but to have these numbers across the whole of Sussex and Kent and around 2000j/kg even on the coast is a very much loaded gun scenario! These figures are likely to be watered down somewhat nearer the time but if this was to come off this would provide the recipe for some serious thunderstorms! Also if deep layer shear and high dew points are conducive then we could be looking at some very nasty storms indeed! It's definitely a situation to watch out for and worth keeping a close eye on the model runs as we draw closer to the forecasted plume! I have got underneath many good storm's over the years here in the South East but the storm I witnessed from my view point on the south downs near Hove back in July 2017 was absolutely astonishing! If this turns out to be anything near what I witnessed that night it will be one to remember !

[Sunny76]

22 hours ago, cheese said:

Nuclear war just disappeared out of the public consciousness after the end of the Cold War. Understandably so given the risk of nuclear war also faded away. Cold War tensions arguably peaked in the early 80s so it makes sense that the 80s was a decade obsessed with nuclear armageddon. 

I was born in 1987 and pretty much never thought about nuclear war in my entire life until Russia invaded Ukraine last year and those fears briefly returned to the forefront. Nuclear fears really defined Generation X, not so much us Millennials. 

There were two periods of nuclear war anxiety, the first one being the early 1960s, peaking around 1962 with the Cuban missile crisis, then a period called ‘detente’(a time of less tension between the superpowers). 
 

Detente lasted from 1968 and beyond, all the way through the 1970s. But, on Christmas Day 1979 the Soviets invaded Afghanistan, which led Jimmy Carters administration to boycott the Moscow Olympics in 1980.

1980 was the year where nuclear anxiety returned, starting with that invasion in late 79. Many documentaries followed :

If the Bomb Drops(1980), which shows a little clip of Protect and Survive. The pamphlet was printed in spring of that year. 
 

Kate Bush, UB40 and Peter Gabriel were singing about the threat of war. Many more would follow until 1984ish. 
 

A Guide to Armageddon(1982) shows a scenario if London gets hit by a nuclear strike. St Paul’s cathedral explodes, buses and cars catch fire. Quite shocking stuff, although it looks dated now, even to people who watched it at the time. Still though, the period from late 79 until about 1985 was a scary period. 
 

I was very young at the time.

 

Anyway, back to storms and hoping for something during the night time next weekend. Would like some dry days as we are down in Devon. 

[Woodboss]

13 hours ago, WeatherArc said:

This is complete, utter insanity from last nights 12z Euros members.

Member 48 showing a casual 6000 j/kg (yes, 6000) of cape above Bristol  Updrafts with the same power as about 10 nuclear bombs. This must be some sort of model record? To see a figure like this even modeled in the UK is just crazy, I did a double take when I first saw it 

And if that wasn't enough the control and members 13/35 are showing an environment with wind fields supportive of violent supercells and possible strong tornadoes.

Have we suddenly switched climates with oklahoma city in may???

 

If this came off I would never complain about the summer of 2023 again 

If this came off then we'd be looking at some very dangerous thunderstorm's indeed! Very highly unlikely to be anywhere near these numbers here and even in the States this is an astonishing figure! I have a friend who lives in Texas and they had storms with cape value's approaching 5500j/kg a few years back with all other parameters in place. It produced fist sized hail and cloud tops well in excess of 50000ft causing a lot of damage! As I mentioned earlier not likely to have figures anywhere near that high here but in the unlikely event it did come off it would be pretty special!

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

There were two periods of nuclear war anxiety, the first one being the early 1960s, peaking around 1962 with the Cuban missile crisis, then a period called ‘detente’(a time of less tension between the superpowers). 
 

Detente lasted from 1968 and beyond, all the way through the 1970s. But, on Christmas Day 1979 the Soviets invaded Afghanistan, which led Jimmy Carters administration to boycott the Moscow Olympics in 1980.

1980 was the year where nuclear anxiety returned, starting with that invasion in late 79. Many documentaries followed :

If the Bomb Drops(1980), which shows a little clip of Protect and Survive. The pamphlet was printed in spring of that year. 
 

Kate Bush, UB40 and Peter Gabriel were singing about the threat of war. Many more would follow until 1984ish. 
 

A Guide to Armageddon(1982) shows a scenario if London gets hit by a nuclear strike. St Paul’s cathedral explodes, buses and cars catch fire. Quite shocking stuff, although it looks dated now, even to people who watched it at the time. Still though, the period from late 79 until about 1985 was a scary period. 
 

I was very young at the time.

 

Anyway, back to storms and hoping for something during the night time next weekend. Would like some dry days as we are down in Devon. 

I was to young at the time, I was around but have no memory about being scared of a nuclear bomb going off. I remember the 87 storm, and the lots of snow when it was really cold though. But I don't remember feeling cold, just lots of snow and the school actually shutting due to frozen pipes.

Edited August 12, 2023 by alexisj9

[Thunders]

12 hours ago, Woodboss said:

If this came off then we'd be looking at some very dangerous thunderstorm's indeed! Very highly unlikely to be anywhere near these numbers here and even in the States this is an astonishing figure! I have a friend who lives in Texas and they had storms with cape value's approaching 5500j/kg a few years back with all other parameters in place. It produced fist sized hail and cloud tops well in excess of 50000ft causing a lot of damage! As I mentioned earlier not likely to have figures anywhere near that high here but in the unlikely event it did come off it would be pretty special!

Yeah and there would be quite a lot of damages associated with the thunderstorms. If this was to play out, would it be a wind event or more of a severe event

[Metwatch]

Not sure about anyone else, but i'm certainly starting to get quite hungry for a good storm. It's been about 5 weeks since I last saw a flash, and about 8 weeks since a cg with that shelf back in June. Hopefully the 2nd half of August can deliver something, but keeping my hopes on the low side at the moment.

[A Face like Thunder]

This evening's forecast on the Beeb indicated that the N & W of England may be in for some thundery activity on Monday.

[WeatherArc]

Well the last euro run i looked at had 4500 sbcape in the west mids.

This run has barely 50 

Lets hope the next few runs of both the euro and gfs will be kinder to us storm lovers 

[Scuba steve]

20 hours ago, Woodboss said:

If this came off then we'd be looking at some very dangerous thunderstorm's indeed! Very highly unlikely to be anywhere near these numbers here and even in the States this is an astonishing figure! I have a friend who lives in Texas and they had storms with cape value's approaching 5500j/kg a few years back with all other parameters in place. It produced fist sized hail and cloud tops well in excess of 50000ft causing a lot of damage! As I mentioned earlier not likely to have figures anywhere near that high here but in the unlikely event it did come off it would be pretty special!

Certainly not something we would want ,giant hail is lethal think of the livestock and wildlife let alone the billions in damage it would likely cause , nice storm yes ,Armageddon no