Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook ️

Widespread heavy showers will develop across nearly anywhere with some becoming quite intense although no storms are expected. 

The odd shower can be seen elsewhere however lightning will be limited due to the small pockets of CAPE therefore no SLGHT risk.

Edited August 2, 2023 by Eagle Eye

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

19 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Convective Outlook ️

Widespread heavy showers will develop across nearly anywhere with some becoming quite intense although no storms are expected. 

The odd shower can be seen elsewhere however lightning will be limited due to the small pockets of CAPE therefore no SLGHT risk.

 

looking forwards to Friday’s instalment tho
 

and here is what’s left from today. Dormant but striking to look at

Edited August 2, 2023 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Thunders]

Yeah, I’ve lost my hope for active plumes this summer. But we might be in for a surprise in September October and into very early November.

[ChannelThunder]

16 minutes ago, Thunders said:

Yeah, I’ve lost my hope for active plumes this summer. But we might be in for a surprise in September October and into very early November.

I'm leaving the country on Monday for two weeks to join the NW Arizona monsoon tour, so there are bound to be plumes here while I'm gone, because sods law!

[Thunders]

12 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:

I'm leaving the country on Monday for two weeks to join the NW Arizona monsoon tour, so there are bound to be plumes here while I'm gone, because sods law!

If that does happen, we know who to thank 

[Southern Storm]

Wow, that's sounds amazing! Has this years so called "storm season"  driven you to the extreme of travelling across the Atlantic at great expense, or had you already signed up? 

I can't wait to hear all about it as it's definitely something I want to do at some point in the future, until then I'm keeping my fingers crossed for some action while I'm in France, there's usually a storm or two when we're over there and it's hotting up just as we arrive otherwise I'm facing my first storm free season in a very long time  

Good luck with the storms!  Feel free to send some this way if you can

Edited August 2, 2023 by Southern Storm

[LetItSnow!]

Ironically, locally this year has seen more instances of thunderstorms than I can remember for quite some time. We had thunder for three days in a row back in May and saw some thunder in June too. I don’t think July brought any though. 

Of course this really isn’t much at all but it shows how low the bar is I suppose! Though last year did see perhaps the equal most intense storm I can recall on October 23rd or 24rd (can’t remember the day exactly).

[ChannelThunder]

8 hours ago, Southern Storm said:

Wow, that's sounds amazing! Has this years so called "storm season"  driven you to the extreme of travelling across the Atlantic at great expense, or had you already signed up? 

I can't wait to hear all about it as it's definitely something I want to do at some point in the future, until then I'm keeping my fingers crossed for some action while I'm in France, there's usually a storm or two when we're over there and it's hotting up just as we arrive otherwise I'm facing my first storm free season in a very long time  

Good luck with the storms!  Feel free to send some this way if you can

Thank you, I think we're gonna need the luck looking at the death ridge setting up over there! Typical! You may remember that an opportunity was posted in the June convective thread by Paul, offering a chance to join the Arizona tour as a blogger/vlogger. Well, in the end I was lucky enough to be given that very chance! It's been a bit of a rush to sort everything (including a fast-track passport renewal) out over the last few weeks, but I'm sorted now and eager to leave on Monday! Good luck in France; at least you'll surely have a better chance than here!

[cheese]

Small storm moving to the west of here. A few flashes & deep rumbles.

Edited August 3, 2023 by cheese

[Summer18]

42 minutes ago, cheese said:

Small storm moving to the west of here. A few flashes & deep rumbles.

Yeah decent little storm, took me by surprise! 

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook 

Convergence should force showers along a PV lobe in the Eastern half of the country with a slight north-western tilt with the showers in terms of inland depth. This comes from a typical back edge of a trough setup with the natural hydrolysed tilting of the showers coming from the difference in pressure advection at different levels.

Drier air nearer the surface followed by slightly moister air around PBL increasing the hydrolyse rates especially post PBL with quickly weakening moisture rates. With a NW tilted 850's Theta-E tongue.

This all combines with 100 J/KG of 3CAPE to provide heavy showers and a few thunderstorms. They may initially struggle to produce lightning and with the pulse nature due to the fairly weak DLS, lightning may be limited towards the longer lived storms.

Small hail may be possible as well but weak energy and I suspect a weak to non existent inflow layer, its unlikely to become above 1cm. Though sometimes surprises can occur with these types of setups as these tend to have large LLLR's and more energy than forecasted.

Given the moisture, there is a risk for some surface flooding with showers training over the same place. Also convergence increases the chances of a funnel cloud and potentially a tornado or two cannot be rules out.

[The Tall Weatherman]

A pretty much quiet July for us so far although some quite considerable heat being pumped out around the 11th August which will hopefully bring our first elevated storms of the year ️. I have also linked some convective photos from today and a sunset photo from tonight because I felt like it.

[lottiekent]

Estofex don’t place us in any real risk today, but at least there’s some. I’ll take that seeing as I’m still on one proper storm so far this summer

European Storm Forecast Experiment - ESTOFEX

WWW.ESTOFEX.ORG

Edit: some parts are going to get it though!

Edited August 4, 2023 by lottiekent

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

Anyone know if that band of rain will cause a show in the south east its heading straight for me

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

Any news on this system 

[wimblettben]

Only had one or two day's of thunder here so far this year.

Going to be the worst year I can remember for thunderstorms if things don't change soon.

Even last year had more thunder by now and that was a rubbish year in itself.

[alexisj9]

19 minutes ago, Mitch the motorbike storm said:

Any news on this system 

It's a cz, and yes will set up properly in Kent later, might have some lighting around at times, though that's less certain. Definitely some heavy downpours.

[Shaunado]

A few lightning strikes now showing up, mainly in/near Suffolk

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

20 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

It's a cz, and yes will set up properly in Kent later, might have some lighting around at times, though that's less certain. Definitely some heavy downpours.

Ooo very interesting I'll keep my eye out 

 

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

22 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

It's a cz, and yes will set up properly in Kent later, might have some lighting around at times, though that's less certain. Definitely some heavy downpours.

Showing lightning strikes inma go chase 

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

Looking a bit dramatic out there 

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

It's a cz, and yes will set up properly in Kent later, might have some lighting around at times, though that's less certain. Definitely some heavy downpours.

cz=please?

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

cz=please?

Convergence Zone?

[johnholmes]

Just now, Methuselah said:

Convergence Zone?

of course, brain cells would be helpful if I had them!

The trough/convergence zone is quite pronounced both 850 and 700 mb show it. Not looked at hte skew-t for Doncaster but I suspect the predict for 12Z will show possible tops pretty high.

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

of course, brain cells would be helpful if I had them!

The trough/convergence zone is quite pronounced both 850 and 700 mb show it. Not looked at hte skew-t for Doncaster but I suspect the predict for 12Z will show possible tops pretty high.

What Is it looking like where I'm posted, cost of margate