Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023

[Southern Storm]

15 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:

Thank you  Appreciate that! 

Heading up to the Grand Canyon today it would seem! Models break storms out in that area!

I've seen some Great Vlogs of the storms that form in that area, truly epic stuff.

So good luck for today, the weather gods really do have a few debts to pay don't you think.

[Metwatch]

Perhaps the chance of a few isolated thunderstorms for N Wales and NW England tomorrow evening ahead of a cold front. Don't think it's worth chasing though as the signal is pretty low and wouldn't be much coverage of any possible storms.

[Mizzle]

5 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I joined the FAcebook page

What's the title of the page?

[*Stormforce~beka*]

46 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

What's the title of the page?

https://www.facebook.com/LanceMorganLightningPhotography

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

On 07/08/2023 at 21:20, A Face like Thunder said:

Mention was made a few days ago of the Fastnet race tragedy of August 1979 when 21 sailors lost their lives in an August storm. Well, on Wednesday at 9pm, Ch 5 have another of their interesting weather programmes, this one entitled 'Killer Storm - The Fastnet Disaster'. During the programme, meteorologist Clare Nasir will explain why 1970s forecasts were 'rubbish'. Should be worth a watch.   

Just trying to find this on their my5 thing

Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Just trying to find this on their my5 thing

Edit / update: it’s literally just been put up there now

[Metwatch]

Some unexpected storms travelling through Brittany at the moment.

The odd CG can be seen on a live cam in Lorient and some others. 

[CoventryWeather]

Been fairly quiet on here during the last month - but signs of modelling picking up a signal for a few plumes at the latter end of next week. Hopefully it comes off better than tonight's plume which shows nothing unless you're in the Highlands of Scotland or out in the sea. Hopefully the weather becomes a little bit more active second half of this month.

Edited August 10, 2023 by CoventryWeather

[The Tall Weatherman]

Nothing expected here today but a lot of evident accas here dotted around the sky.

 

Edited August 10, 2023 by The Tall Weatherman

[Sprites]

Instability remnants from the French storms

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook 

Showers and storms should form along a PV lobe along or slightly behind a cold front. There's a weak occluded front behind the cold front which might have some more showers associated with it. A trough pre front may also form across northern England and Scotland with scattered showers and isolated lightning possible in the showers with 50+ J/KG 3CAPE.

The main shower and storms line forms over Ireland, moving towards far western England and lifting northwest towards far northwestern England and into Scotland. Large post PBL lift so despite weak elevated CAPE, lightning could occur along the strongly forced line. With fairly good hydrolapse rates aiding the storms.

The trough and occluded front occur along two separate Theta-W tongues. Meaning that elevated storms can pop up randomly overnight stronger than forecasted on both sides. With a moisture tongue for both of these areas, showers and storms, especially with the stronger forced occluded front could provide some torrential rainfall.

Might be some hail with supportive hodographs and strong buoyancy but generally weak CAPE should hold back the total hail strength. Generally small hail maxing out sub severe strength.

[Eagle Eye]

Oh my, imagine if this came off or even just similar.  We can dream right?

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Eagle Eye said:

Oh my, imagine if this came off or even just similar.  We can dream right?

Yep, very thundery end to the ECM 12z

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:

Oh my, imagine if this came off or even just similar.  We can dream right?

Isn’t this the same as what happened in that film ‘Threads’ ?

[WeatherArc]

1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:

Oh my, imagine if this came off or even just similar.  We can dream right?

4700???   Blimey even in the US plains that's considered a high value. 

The period from the 17th-20th is really starting to get my attention, especially now that the euro and GFS are starting to agree on a few runs. Moderate-Big cape and some decent wind shear about, 2012 round 2 

[Sunny76]

13 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Isn’t this the same as what happened in that film ‘Threads’ ?

I thought I was the only one who saw that film. What a depressing film it was. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

52 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I thought I was the only one who saw that film. What a depressing film it was. 

Lol I haven’t seen it yet. “When the wind blows” was tough enough for me but I do want to see it one day

[Rufus Butterfield]

4 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Lol I haven’t seen it yet. “When the wind blows” was tough enough for me but I do want to see it one day

‘When the wind’ blows gave me nightmares as a kid

[Jamie M]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

I thought I was the only one who saw that film. What a depressing film it was. 

Sheffield being wiped off the map was the only good part  but christ the rest was certainly sumet 

[Sunny76]

31 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

Sheffield being wiped off the map was the only good part  but christ the rest was certainly sumet 

I think I watched it in 1985, then again in high school in the early 90s.

[Jamie M]

1 minute ago, Sunny76 said:

I think I watched it in 1985, then again in high school in the early 90s.

Stays with you in some way or another 

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Lol I haven’t seen it yet. “When the wind blows” was tough enough for me but I do want to see it one day

I watched The Day after. Another depressing film about nuclear war.

Also A British Guide to the End of the World, which is also interesting.

Was on bbc4 around late 2019, and is a film with clips from all the shows and documentaries about nuclear war and the threat. 

1 minute ago, Jamie M said:

Stays with you in some way or another 

Yeah the woman urinating and the melting milk bottles. It’s just something the bbc or any other British tv channel would be too scared to make now.

They seem to stop making shows of that kind in the early 2000s.

[cheese]

46 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I watched The Day after. Another depressing film about nuclear war.

Also A British Guide to the End of the World, which is also interesting.

Was on bbc4 around late 2019, and is a film with clips from all the shows and documentaries about nuclear war and the threat. 

Yeah the woman urinating and the melting milk bottles. It’s just something the bbc or any other British tv channel would be too scared to make now.

They seem to stop making shows of that kind in the early 2000s.

Nuclear war just disappeared out of the public consciousness after the end of the Cold War. Understandably so given the risk of nuclear war also faded away. Cold War tensions arguably peaked in the early 80s so it makes sense that the 80s was a decade obsessed with nuclear armageddon. 

I was born in 1987 and pretty much never thought about nuclear war in my entire life until Russia invaded Ukraine last year and those fears briefly returned to the forefront. Nuclear fears really defined Generation X, not so much us Millennials. 

Edited August 10, 2023 by cheese

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

6 hours ago, cheese said:

Nuclear war just disappeared out of the public consciousness after the end of the Cold War. Understandably so given the risk of nuclear war also faded away. Cold War tensions arguably peaked in the early 80s so it makes sense that the 80s was a decade obsessed with nuclear armageddon. 

I was born in 1987 and pretty much never thought about nuclear war in my entire life until Russia invaded Ukraine last year and those fears briefly returned to the forefront. Nuclear fears really defined Generation X, not so much us Millennials. 

 did it though?

I’m fascinated by the whole thing and have watched lots of documentaries about Trinity, Bikini Atoll / Castle tests, the U.K’s race to build their own bomb (starting with the ‘tube alloys’ project), through to Tzar Bomba (the largest explosion ever carried out on earth by humans I think!) and then that one someone mentioned about British Guide To The End Of The World which was mildly terrifying, but fantastic

(I need to pluck up the courage to watch Threads at some point though )

Personally I’ve not thought the threat has ever gone away, but agree that the current crisis in Europe has put it back into public consciousness.

to bring this back on topic here’s something interesting I’ve found:

A rough estimate of the total energy in a thunderstorm can be made from the total quantity of water that is precipitated by the cloud. In a typical case, this energy is about 107 kilowatt-hours, roughly equivalent of a 20-kiloton nuclear explosion (though it is released over a broader area and in a longer span of time). A large, multicell storm can easily be 10 to 100 times more energetic.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Ay caramba! 20° at midnight

 

[WeatherArc]

This is complete, utter insanity from last nights 12z Euros members.

Member 48 showing a casual 6000 j/kg (yes, 6000) of cape above Bristol  Updrafts with the same power as about 10 nuclear bombs. This must be some sort of model record? To see a figure like this even modeled in the UK is just crazy, I did a double take when I first saw it 

And if that wasn't enough the control and members 13/35 are showing an environment with wind fields supportive of violent supercells and possible strong tornadoes.

Have we suddenly switched climates with oklahoma city in may???

 

6 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

Oh my, imagine if this came off or even just similar.  We can dream right?

If this came off I would never complain about the summer of 2023 again