Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook ️

 

Showers and thunderstorms will develop across Scotland/ Ireland during the day, Wales/SW England in the evening. 

 

In the evening most t-storm activity will staff offshore in the SW although some could affect Cornwall/Coastal areas.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Spoiler alert

There will be no 6000 (or 4500) CAPE storm

There will be no giant hail

We will see the livestock graze

And theirs graze after them

For about 20 hours we’ve gazed at the models with a mounting sense of fear

Our path to next Sunday looked set to be lit with the bright lights of elevated cumulus electrification

But now we lower our eyes and see

That the GFS overcooked it all.

…There will be no armageddon (and that’s actually a good thing )

Edited August 12, 2023 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[matty40s]

27 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Convective Outlook ️

 

Showers and thunderstorms will develop across Scotland/ Ireland during the day, Wales/SW England in the evening. 

 

In the evening most t-storm activity will staff offshore in the SW although some could affect Cornwall/Coastal areas.

Eagle Eye says usual dung

[Ryan H]

22 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Spoiler alert

There will be no 6000 (or 4500) CAPE storm

There will be no giant hail

We will see the livestock graze

And theirs graze after them

For about 20 hours we’ve gazed at the models with a mounting sense of fear

Our path to next Sunday looked set to be lit with the bright lights of elevated cumulus electrification

But now we lower our eyes and see

That the GFS overcooked it all.

…There will be no armageddon (and that’s actually a good thing )

Sorry. I asked if it would be a Supercell formation in the United Kingdom next week. I heard about that GFS being overcooked but would it be the right condition for a Supercell to form in out country like in 2012 or something?

[Eagle Eye]

5 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Eagle Eye says usual dung

?

P.S

Sorry about that discussion, my phone broke so that's just what Jay could do and not me.

29 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Spoiler alert

There will be no 6000 (or 4500) CAPE storm

There will be no giant hail

We will see the livestock graze

And theirs graze after them

For about 20 hours we’ve gazed at the models with a mounting sense of fear

Our path to next Sunday looked set to be lit with the bright lights of elevated cumulus electrification

But now we lower our eyes and see

That the GFS overcooked it all.

…There will be no armageddon (and that’s actually a good thing )

1) For everyone

High CAPE does not equal strong hail. It can help but depends where its stored to be honest. Nor does it mean Supercells either.

[WeatherArc]

35 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Spoiler alert

There will be no 6000 (or 4500) CAPE storm

There will be no giant hail

We will see the livestock graze

And theirs graze after them

For about 20 hours we’ve gazed at the models with a mounting sense of fear

Our path to next Sunday looked set to be lit with the bright lights of elevated cumulus electrification

But now we lower our eyes and see

That the GFS overcooked it all.

…There will be no armageddon (and that’s actually a good thing )

Ill come back to this after we get a 2 mile wide EF5 wedge on saturday 

[WeatherArc]

14 minutes ago, Ryan H said:

Sorry. I asked if it would be a Supercell formation in the United Kingdom next week. I heard about that GFS being overcooked but would it be the right condition for a Supercell to form in out country like in 2012 or something?

Its possible, models have really downtrended any supercell potential. Ill keep an eye on it but it doesnt look great right now.

For supercells to form we need both windshear and instability, 4000 j/kg of cape is nice but without any shear your just gonna get regular thunderstorms, 2012 was unique as we were in a rare position of having both enough cape and shear, something we haven't seen in this country for a little while. 

[Scuba steve]

1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Spoiler alert

There will be no 6000 (or 4500) CAPE storm

There will be no giant hail

We will see the livestock graze

And theirs graze after them

For about 20 hours we’ve gazed at the models with a mounting sense of fear

Our path to next Sunday looked set to be lit with the bright lights of elevated cumulus electrification

But now we lower our eyes and see

That the GFS overcooked it all.

…There will be no armageddon (and that’s actually a good thing )

Don’t think anyone really believes algorithmic generated Synoptics  but  you can never be sure ,that 1% ,lol

[Eagle Eye]

ECM continues to be stormy.

[matty40s]

Sorry, some of your forecasts are so insignificant...perhaps stick to the major risks, or link to a website where you can explain your thinking.

I'm just trying to help, especially as you have such good knowledge and are so new to this. Constant storm forecasts of such wide areas at limited risks tends to dilute interest completely. Stick to larger outbreaks and major risks, dont feel the need to post daily.

..and most of all, enjoy what you do, learn, preach, and tell us all about it. Your enthusiasm is brill.

[Scuba steve]

1 hour ago, WeatherArc said:

Ill come back to this after we get a 2 mile wide EF5 wedge on saturday 

Screaming eagle over brum with grapefruit size hail ,lol

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I’ve been fiddling about with AI to make some ultra-surreal storm images, while we wait endlessly for something to actually happen in the actual sky.

Here’s one of my favourites

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

9 hours ago, matty40s said:

Sorry, some of your forecasts are so insignificant...perhaps stick to the major risks, or link to a website where you can explain your thinking.

I'm just trying to help, especially as you have such good knowledge and are so new to this. Constant storm forecasts of such wide areas at limited risks tends to dilute interest completely. Stick to larger outbreaks and major risks, dont feel the need to post daily.

..and most of all, enjoy what you do, learn, preach, and tell us all about it. Your enthusiasm is brill.

I would really like it if there was a website for these daily forecasts, as I do miss the old CW forecasts by Dan - it might be better than posting them on here each day, especially as we approach some more interesting weeks where there will be more activity on here.

I have nothing against regular storm charts, my issue is that if they are nestled in this thread they are going to be a challenge to find each day

Hope this helps, I do like to read the synoptic discussion and love the enthusiasm, but agree there might be a better way

[A Face like Thunder]

Yellow weather warning in place for rain tomorrow covering parts of England & Wales including NW, NE and West Midlands. No mention of thunder.

[wimblettben]

Even the stuff for tonight has been downgraded since yesterday evening.

We had a 40% risk yesterday but now its only 20% and the only place a higher risk exists is Scotland yet again.

Very fed up with how the models are dealing with next week as well as they have completely changed from what they were showing just a few days ago.

Not that I am surprised mind you, I knew it was going to happen as it always does.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Next weekend is being downgraded to just a wee chance at a clipper, from what I can tell.

We can’t have nice things

Edited August 13, 2023 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[donnerundblitzer]

15 hours ago, matty40s said:

Eagle Eye says usual dung

That's just unnecessary language @matty40s, I appreciate your forecasts  @Eagle Eye I agree with @Flash bang flash bang etc that having a separate website with the detail as Convective Weather used to have would be great, if possible? I imagine it does take significant time and some money to do this though.

[viking_smb]

31 minutes ago, donnerundblitzer said:

That's just unnecessary language @matty40s, I appreciate your forecasts  @Eagle Eye I agree with @Flash bang flash bang etc that having a separate website with the detail as Convective Weather used to have would be great, if possible? I imagine it does take significant time and some money to do this though.

you can make free websites, anyone remember geocities from long ago, thats going back some years, but it will be good to have a seperate site

[SnowBear]

22 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

you can make free websites, anyone remember geocities from long ago, thats going back some years, but it will be good to have a seperate site

Not sure but I think anyone can create a blog on NW? That way all the charts for one person is in one place. 

Perhaps of possible the NW admin could make a subset of storm forecasting blogs so they are all in one place and can be viewed together?

Edited August 13, 2023 by SnowBear

[*Stormforce~beka*]

3 minutes ago, SnowBear said:

Not sure but I think anyone can create a blog on NW? That way all the charts for one person is in one place. 

Perhaps of possible the NW admin could make a subset of storm forecasting blogs so they are all in one place and can be viewed together?

I aske dabout blogs not long back. They were shelved due to lack of use apparently

[LeeKay/]

Handry does quite well, ive bookmarked he/shes's site for a while now.

Home | Handry Outlook

HANDRYOUTLOOK.WIXSITE.COM

 

[Eagle Eye]

1 hour ago, donnerundblitzer said:

That's just unnecessary language @matty40s, I appreciate your forecasts  @Eagle Eye I agree with @Flash bang flash bang etc that having a separate website with the detail as Convective Weather used to have would be great, if possible? I imagine it does take significant time and some money to do this though.

I don't have the money to do so, me and Jay have a Twitter for the forecasts.

 

3 minutes ago, LeeKay/ said:

Handry does quite well, ive bookmarked he/shes's site for a while now.

Home | Handry Outlook

HANDRYOUTLOOK.WIXSITE.COM

 

I also work with Handry for his forecasts as well.

[alexisj9]

17 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

?

P.S

Sorry about that discussion, my phone broke so that's just what Jay could do and not me.

1) For everyone

High CAPE does not equal strong hail. It can help but depends where its stored to be honest. Nor does it mean Supercells either.

Think he's moaning about the fact storm will most like stay in the west and possibly not even make it on land.

[Metwatch]

@Met4Cast is another guy who makes some great convective outlooks and maps, he works with @Ben Sainsbury as well.

 

6 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I’ve been fiddling about with AI to make some ultra-surreal storm images, while we wait endlessly for something to actually happen in the actual sky.

Here’s one of my favourites

That looks like a lavender field and I've recently discovered one quite close to home, so maybe I could get a shot of some shelf cloud / CG lightning with the lavender in the future. I think the chance of that would probably be higher next year rather than this one, as the outlook for thunderstorms remains poor for the rest of this August.

Edited August 13, 2023 by Metwatch

[Ben Sainsbury]

17 hours ago, matty40s said:

Sorry, some of your forecasts are so insignificant...perhaps stick to the major risks, or link to a website where you can explain your thinking.

I'm just trying to help, especially as you have such good knowledge and are so new to this. Constant storm forecasts of such wide areas at limited risks tends to dilute interest completely. Stick to larger outbreaks and major risks, dont feel the need to post daily.

..and most of all, enjoy what you do, learn, preach, and tell us all about it. Your enthusiasm is brill.

You're right, some of the forecasts are 'insignificant' but that is the nature of weather, more often than not the risk of a thunderstorm/lightning on any given day is going to be small/near-zero. I would actually encourage storm forecasts on insignificant days, as I admire the enthusiasm and they encourage conversation. Personally, if the limited risk days aren't of interest, then you don't have to read them.  

Some greater destabilisation looks to occur Friday night, but the warmest airmass is consistently being pushed further east, reducing the ceiling for big thunderstorms. Been very busy with work (as you might expect given the poor weather at the moment), but hopefully will have more time to have a greater look at Friday's risk.