Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts

[Don]

21 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

it can though just look at winter 2015/16 also the last strong El Nino event

True but 2015/16 was a Super Nino, whereas the current one will most likely be a moderate or strong event, but not super.

[cheeky_monkey]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

True but 2015/16 was a Super Nino, whereas the current one will most likely be a moderate or strong event, but not super.

ok try 2006/7 instead weak/moderate event

[SqueakheartLW]

36 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

it can though just look at winter 2015/16 also the last strong El Nino event

12 minutes ago, Don said:

True but 2015/16 was a Super Nino, whereas the current one will most likely be a moderate or strong event, but not super.

6 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

ok try 2006/7 instead weak/moderate event

Do note that both of these events were EP El Nino's which are typically associated with mild winters. Also both years were strong WQBO as well.

2023/24 isn't such a good match. The Nino is moderate / strong and is predicted to be more CP than both of those winters. Also a moderate to strong EQBO is expected.

[Met4Cast]

I think too much emphasis is being put on El Niño, it doesn’t impact the UK weather directly and even if it does, it’s impact is very small. 

[SqueakheartLW]

One thing that seems to be interesting in regards to the polar vortex is how the vortex right up at 1hpa seems to be struggling to get going properly and has been weaker than average really for the entire vortex season so far

Wonder if this will have an overall effect of weakening the vortex at all levels in the weeks to come and increase the chances of blocking episodes and a colder winter

[Don]

45 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

I think too much emphasis is being put on El Niño, it doesn’t impact the UK weather directly and even if it does, it’s impact is very small. 

I think it really depends on the strength of the event, with a strong or super Nino having a pronounced affect on Europe's weather patterns?

Edited October 23, 2023 by Don

[bluearmy]

23 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

One thing that seems to be interesting in regards to the polar vortex is how the vortex right up at 1hpa seems to be struggling to get going properly and has been weaker than average really for the entire vortex season so far

Wonder if this will have an overall effect of weakening the vortex at all levels in the weeks to come and increase the chances of blocking episodes and a colder winter

The 46 has shown the current drop off in upper strat zonal flow for some time. It then shows a brisk recovery to above average through November before a return to the mean by December. But for now, the strat remains uncoupled from the trop. 

[Don]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The 46 has shown the current drop off in upper strat zonal flow for some time. It then shows a brisk recovery to above average through November before a return to the mean by December. But for now, the strat remains uncoupled from the trop. 

Needs to remain that way, otherwise there will be trouble for cold winter fans!

[Beanz]

1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

I think too much emphasis is being put on El Niño, it doesn’t impact the UK weather directly and even if it does, it’s impact is very small. 

I’d go one further, a couple of cold spells with some snow on the ground won’t be the result of El-Nino.  And a decent winter is often judged, here at least, by conditions and short spells of weather that are not always a general seasonal pattern.  

[Met4Cast]

1 hour ago, Don said:

I think it really depends on the strength of the event, with a strong or super Nino having a pronounced affect on Europe's weather patterns?

Even then I’d argue the direct impact is small. A stronger event would have a bigger impact on the overall global pattern which then would indirectly impact the UK, but how would depend on a multitude of other factors too. 

[summer blizzard]

I would still urge caution, I think that far too many of you are far too optimistic. 

That said, I do expect Q1 to average colder than average.

[Don]

4 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I would still urge caution, I think that far too many of you are far too optimistic. 

That said, I do expect Q1 to average colder than average.

If Q1 is colder than average, I think that would satisfy most cold seekers in this day and age!

[Howie]

On 22/10/2023 at 11:56, CoventryWeather said:

Thanks so much! I'm 18 so don't have much memory with it, as I was likely 4/5 at that time! 

Think if we had another winter like that, everyone on here would be absolutely mental!! 

I'm 26 and remember 09/10 very well. The roads were like ice rinks, I remember slipping and sliding with my mum and sisters. The ice was so thick, the snow was glistening with rainbow colours as it was so frozen solid. Definitely the best winter in recent times

[MattStoke]

49 minutes ago, Howie said:

I'm 26 and remember 09/10 very well. The roads were like ice rinks, I remember slipping and sliding with my mum and sisters. The ice was so thick, the snow was glistening with rainbow colours as it was so frozen solid. Definitely the best winter in recent times

Sounds like my experience when I was living in Kent (Sittingbourne and Rochester) in December 2010. Wading through waist high snow on the way to the train station in temperatures well below freezing. 

Edited October 24, 2023 by MattStoke

[Howie]

23 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Sounds like my experience when I was living in Kent (Sittingbourne and Rochester) in December 2010. Wading through waist high snow on the way to the train station in temperatures well below freezing. 

Yes it was really quite remarkable wasn't it?

[MP-R]

24 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Sounds like my experience when I was living in Kent (Sittingbourne and Rochester) in December 2010. Wading through waist high snow on the way to the train station in temperatures well below freezing. 

Blimey. How tall (or not) were you in December 2010?!

[CryoraptorA303]

My nan in Gravesend got about three feet in December 2010. I think further down the Thames estuary in Medway some places got even more. Up in the Ilford area in east London where we lived at the time we got several inches. That lake effect on the Kent coast can be incredibly strong. I think before the Christmas blast the south coast also got some snow in the late Nov-early Dec episode that hit the north a lot harder as well; London was missed out of that one, at least I don't remember seeing any snow in that event, only in the Christmas blast that hit the south a lot harder.

Edited October 24, 2023 by CryoraptorA303

[MattStoke]

44 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Blimey. How tall (or not) were you in December 2010?!

Same as now. 5 foot 9. North Kent got a lot of snow in that spell. At one point, it snowed continuously for a week, albeit mostly very light.

[CryoraptorA303]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Same as now. 5 foot 9. North Kent got a lot of snow in that spell. At one point, it snowed continuously for a week, albeit mostly very light.

That must've been the late Nov-early Dec spell before the south's main course. The Sheffield area got 6 entire feet of snow in that episode!

[CryoraptorA303]

15 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

Even then I’d argue the direct impact is small. A stronger event would have a bigger impact on the overall global pattern which then would indirectly impact the UK, but how would depend on a multitude of other factors too. 

I think the impact of ENSO is notable on Europe - It's quite easy to tie certain events to noticeable ENSO phenomena that were occurring at the same time. December 2015 with the 2015-16 super Nino, summer 2018 and the whole first half of 2013 really during ENSO-neutral, 1976 at the end of exceptionally strong triple Nina, the 2007-2013 Nina dominance period causing depressed global temps and a stronger jet stream, leading to a string of westerly-dominated, cool summers, and of course the four year ENSO-neutral period leading up to 62/63. The catch is the impact isn't always the same or entirely predictable, but you can still draw some basic archetypes.

[cheeky_monkey]

17 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

That must've been the late Nov-early Dec spell before the south's main course. The Sheffield area got 6 entire feet of snow in that episode!

which would beat the record for the UK which occurred in 1947 according to the Met Office...The deepest snow ever recorded in an inhabited area of the UK was near Ruthin in North Wales during the severe winter of 1946-47. A series of cold spells brought large drifts of snow across the UK, causing transport problems and fuel shortages. During March 1947 a snow depth of 1.65 metres was recorded.

[raz.org.rain]

26 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

I think the impact of ENSO is notable on Europe - It's quite easy to tie certain events to noticeable ENSO phenomena that were occurring at the same time. December 2015 with the 2015-16 super Nino, summer 2018 and the whole first half of 2013 really during ENSO-neutral, 1976 at the end of exceptionally strong triple Nina, the 2007-2013 Nina dominance period causing depressed global temps and a stronger jet stream, leading to a string of westerly-dominated, cool summers, and of course the four year ENSO-neutral period leading up to 62/63. The catch is the impact isn't always the same or entirely predictable, but you can still draw some basic archetypes.

I recall some amount of shock that the 40°c mark was broken in this country during a La Niña year.

[Don]

42 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Same as now. 5 foot 9. North Kent got a lot of snow in that spell. At one point, it snowed continuously for a week, albeit mostly very light.

Sounds like similar levels to January 1987?

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Sounds like similar levels to January 1987?

Too young to remember that one. I was a babe in arms!

[CryoraptorA303]

46 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

which would beat the record for the UK which occurred in 1947 according to the Met Office...The deepest snow ever recorded in an inhabited area of the UK was near Ruthin in North Wales during the severe winter of 1946-47. A series of cold spells brought large drifts of snow across the UK, causing transport problems and fuel shortages. During March 1947 a snow depth of 1.65 metres was recorded.

Apparently it was actually ~5ft (~1.5m), so a bit short of 6.

34 minutes ago, razorgrain said:

I recall some amount of shock that the 40°c mark was broken in this country during a La Niña year.

Well, yes and no. 2022 was the final year of the 2020-22 triple Nina, and as previously mentioned, the summer of 1976 occurred in the final year of an exceptionally strong triple Nina (all three dips were to >-1.5 at their peaks, and I don't think a triple Nina of this amplitude has been repeated). The first half of 2022 was very dry (apart from February) as 76 was. The summer of 95 also occurred during a Nina. As I said, there is certainly a notable impact (I believe the NOAA even stated Nina was directly responsible for the five-wave jet stream pattern in 2022 and consequent severe heatwaves in Europe, but don't quote me on that one), but that impact isn't always clear. It can also sometimes be overwhelmed by other factors, like the +IOD in 2019/20 which is thought to be heavily correlated to the bulletproof PV that year.

However, the actual record breaking temperature is more of an oddball. Neither 76 or 95 broke the all-time record (95 didn't even record a top-10 hottest day), they were more slow burners. The big record breaks otherwise happen during El Nino (1990, 2003 & 2019). I have no idea if 1911 was a Nino year or not, but as it was somewhat similar to this year both in the States and Europe (not often both concurrently have a hot summer), I'd suggest there's a good chance it was. 1906, the year of the infamous 35.6C September record which this year's September heatwave was widely ticketed to finally beat, also fits the profile of a strong Nino.

Now of course, the 2003 heatwave followed on from a moderate Nino which followed a triple Nina. We are now in a moderate (which will probably become strong) Nino and will be reaching peak temperature next year, and we just came out of a triple Nina. 2024 will be the closest oceanoatmospheric analogue to 2003 on paper since that year, except now we've had 21 more years of climate change and SSTs look to be higher than then, and Europe is also coming out of a string of bad summers, which it wasn't in 03. I would suggest that, at least on paper, the risk for exceptionally severe summer weather next year is very high.

37 minutes ago, Don said:

Sounds like similar levels to January 1987?

I wish I was alive for 1987, sounds like a blast. February 87 was cold as well, so I'm sure there was snow/ice on the ground for a long time.