Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

[A Face like Thunder]

Beeb have indicated this evening that the thundery activity tomorrow will fall apart before it reaches the NW of England, hence the yellow weather warning does not extend into our region.

[TallPaul]

1 minute ago, Aiden2012 said:

I’m keeping my expectations very low tomorrow to avoid disappointment

Best way.... but regardless of best intentions, I always end up banging my head against my wall...

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

32 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Here’s hoping for two rounds of storms tomorrow 

It’s on the cards

[Ben Sainsbury]

UKV 12z would be an exceptional run for many south of the M4 tomorrow. But the UKV is always wrong, so it's forecast for tomorrow will be wrong

[LightningLover]

I also note with some interest that the AROME, WRF-NMM and to a lesser extent the UKV 12z seem to be picking up on a renewed pulse of instability during Monday morning as the very last of the warm air mass is shunted away. One to watch for a potential uptick in elevated storms across the channel? Example given below with the AROME.

[ChannelThunder]

10 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

I also note with some interest that the AROME, WRF-NMM and to a lesser extent the UKV 12z seem to be picking up on a renewed pulse of instability during Monday morning as the very last of the warm air mass is shunted away. One to watch for a potential uptick in elevated storms across the channel? Example given below with the AROME.

Very much a Kent Clipper on the Arome. It'll be interesting to see if UKV is onboard with that on the 15z, because on the previous runs it's far from a KC!

[Liam Burge]

Ooo this is interesting!! One of the more interesting wordings I've seen on a MetO outlook in quite some time.

[Sprites]

Looking downwind it's rather quiet. The closer to the south coast tomorrow the better it would seem. Plenty of rain around though. 

 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

34 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

I also note with some interest that the AROME, WRF-NMM and to a lesser extent the UKV 12z seem to be picking up on a renewed pulse of instability during Monday morning as the very last of the warm air mass is shunted away. One to watch for a potential uptick in elevated storms across the channel? Example given below with the AROME.

I’ll be so tired of thunderstorms by then it will be a hardship if we have any more

[Azazel]

Heavier echoes developing NW of the Channel Islands now 

[WeatherArc]

12z UKV    

A very widespread and extremely good uk storm event should this come off, the south west hit by a large squall line in the morning then secondary cells firing along the M4 corridor in the evening, moving north forming another squall line. I will admit I'm a little wary about the UKV after last weekend but lets see how it does. 

Edited September 16, 2023 by WeatherArc

[Mapantz]

I'm not convinced of much lightning on that first trough tomorrow. It's the showers that develop later tomorrow that look to have a better chance.

I suspect that first trough will have lightning when it develops out of France, and then the activity will die down as it hits the south coast.

[WeatherArc]

14 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I'm not convinced of much lightning on that first trough tomorrow. It's the showers that develop later tomorrow that look to have a better chance.

I suspect that first trough will have lightning when it develops out of France, and then the activity will die down as it hits the south coast.

I would agree, very dependent on cloud cover from the first system though

[Harry]

21 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I'm not convinced of much lightning on that first trough tomorrow. It's the showers that develop later tomorrow that look to have a better chance.

I suspect that first trough will have lightning when it develops out of France, and then the activity will die down as it hits the south coast.

Interestingly - NMM now showing quite a bit of MUCAPE coinciding with that heavy rain band around lunch time tomorrow. I don’t recall seeing much obvious instability on previous runs

Edited September 16, 2023 by Harry

[*Stormforce~beka*]

2 hours ago, Azazel said:

Here’s hoping for two rounds of storms tomorrow 

You'll be lucky for one gorgeous ...

[Alderc 2.0]

32 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I'm not convinced of much lightning on that first trough tomorrow. It's the showers that develop later tomorrow that look to have a better chance.

I suspect that first trough will have lightning when it develops out of France, and then the activity will die down as it hits the south coast.

Wouldn’t be the first time that’s happened…..

[Southern Storm]

UKv 15z  

Standard disclaimer though, it's unlikely to be the same on the next update 

Edited September 16, 2023 by Southern Storm

[WeatherArc]

1 minute ago, Southern Storm said:

UKv 15z  

Standard disclaimer thought, it's unlikely to be the same on the next update 

I'm waiting to wake up tomorrow to grey skies and drizzle with 2 strikes over the channel 

[Eagle Eye]

2 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

UKV 12z would be an exceptional run for many south of the M4 tomorrow. But the UKV is always wrong, so it's forecast for tomorrow will be wrong

Ahahahha

True though. The latest run has a storm develop right after me, so yeah it's definitely wrong

[tomp456]

6 minutes ago, Southern Storm said:

UKv 15z  

Standard disclaimer though, it's unlikely to be the same on the next update 

This chart is  pure filth. 

 

 

[LightningLover]

I see the the 15z and 18z misses Bexhill entirely... Not particularly surprised lol

Edited September 16, 2023 by LightningLover

[Southern Storm]

Just now, WeatherArc said:

I'm waiting to wake up tomorrow to grey skies and drizzle with 2 strikes over the channel 

Don't you just know it  

In all seriousness, it's tomorrow night's storms that I'm more interested in sonim happy to see they are being modelled in a decent locality for me , the ones kicking off around noon will be a nice bonus, which I'll try and film if I can. as photographing lightning during daylight hours is next to impossible, I've only ever managed to get one phot during the daytime

The good thing is there seems to be a few opportunities across I fairly wide area, hope you manage to get something out of this!

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, LightningLover said:

I see the the 15z and 18z misses Bexhill entirely... Not particularly surprised lol

Don't worry, the eastern shift won't push it into the North Sea this time, instead directly over us:)

[TallPaul]

A close friend of mine who works for highways (Plymouth City Council) has echoed the concerns of Meto... adding "watch out for 'global warming style storms' hitting headlines tomorrow'". 

He doesn't know that I'm a weather enthusiast... so I just nodded and said "wow, crikes..."

Who knows!!??

[LightningLover]

Just now, Eagle Eye said:

Don't worry, the eastern shift won't push it into the North Sea this time, instead directly over us:)

Let's pray so!