Storm Agnes

[Jo Farrow]

It's been windy enough overnight in some parts but weather eyes are moving to a midweek low pressure heading our way. It could bring gales and/or heavy rain to the UK, with severe gales mentioned and impactful flooding. First name on this season's list would be #StormAgnes IF a met office name it. 

Met Office already have early warning YEllow out, a widespread WIND warning

Edited September 25, 2023 by Jo Farrow
Storm has been named

[Jo Farrow]

Broadbrush, Met Office early warning and 3 model views of +72 hours, Wednesday lunchtime pressure

https://www.netweather.tv/extra/models/

"A spell of strong winds is expected to move northeast through Wednesday, with a small chance that they could be significantly disruptive."

but it seems there is a higher likelihood of some disruption midweek from this even if the significant disruption only has a small chance at this stage. 

The matrix isn't quite working well here (for the public), with Unlikely against High impacts chosen on warning page, like they are viewing the potential step up to an Amber yet this warning is just a wide wind one.  Maybe it could do with two ticks, another one against Likely and Low impacts? Rain/flooding could also be an issue

"A deep area of low pressure is expected to approach southwest Ireland early on Wednesday, and track across northern parts of the UK before clearing early Thursday. There is some uncertainty on the precise track and depth of the low, however the most likely outcome at present is for a wide swathe of 50 to 60 mph gusts to affect inland areas, perhaps locally stronger over and to the lee of hills in the north. Some Irish Sea coasts could see gusts of 65 to 75 mph, with a small chance of 80 mph gusts on the most exposed coasts and headlands." MO

[A Face like Thunder]

The press have certainly picked up on the name 'Agnes'.

[Jo Farrow]

Met Eireann wind and rain yellow warnings now. 

[Wivenswold]

I totally agree with your summary of risks @Jo Farrow .

I used to work on the railway and now work in risk management.

These are exactly the sort of set-ups that will cause huge disruption due to one or two weaknesses with the infrastructure or a rogue, insecure/unsecured item damaging the infrastructure. Trees are in full leaf, garden furniture is still out and this is the first test of the system's resilience to gales in a while.  Likewise with the roads, one downed tree or overturned lorry can bring regions to a grinding halt.  I can see a lot of problems come Thursday morning, little problems maybe but that doesn't mean the results are insignificant. 

I've advised my Facebook friends to avoid travel later on Wednesday and to have a back-up plan if they have important things to do on Thursday.  That should be the message to the public at the moment.  

Edited September 25, 2023 by Wivenswold

[Jo Farrow]

3 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

I totally agree with your summary of risks @Jo Farrow .

I used to work on the railway and now work in risk management.

These are exactly the sort of set-ups that will cause huge disruption due to one or two weaknesses with the infrastructure or a rogue, insecure/unsecured item damaging the infrastructure. Trees are in full leaf, garden furniture is still out and this is the first test of the system's resilience to gales in a while.  Likewise with the roads, one downed tree or overturned lorry can bring regions to a grinding halt.  I can see a lot of problems come Thursday morning, little problems maybe but that doesn't mean the results are insignificant. 

I've advised my Facebook friends to avoid travel later on Wednesday and to have a back-up plan if they have important things to do on Thursday.  That should be the message to the public at the moment.  

and I do hope they get on and name a storm today (if the forecast continues) Naming is not the same as specific Amber warnings. Naming a storm is a wide heads-up message that something significant is on its way. Naming at storm at 11pm at night, for next day morning commute is useless. A name is about communication and letting people prepare. The warnings are about specifics. The novelty of a storm name is about reaching more people who might not necessarily have been so engaged with weather messaging, often it is just being used afterwards, looking backwards to identify/remember a severe weather event.   Use the media earlier

[richie3846]

Just now, Jo Farrow said:

and I do hope they get on and name a storm today (if the forecast continues) Naming is not the same as specific Amber warnings. Naming a storm is a wide heads-up message that something significant is on its way. Naming at storm at 11pm at night, for next day morning commute is useless. A name is about communication and letting people prepare. The warnings are about specifics. The novelty of a storm name is about reaching more people who might not necessarily have been so engaged with weather messaging, often it is just being used afterwards, looking backwards to identify/remember a severe weather event.   Use the media earlier

It's already been named

[Jo Farrow]

Great, ta

 

[Snowyowl9]

Different track this this vicious storm phew..

GFS bringing it further south now oh no..

This one did alot of damage..

There were so many leaves on the trees then late really..

This storm is a month earlier..

[Jo Farrow]

Storm Agnes set to bring midweek heavy rain and gales

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

The UK Met Office has named a midweek low, Storm Agnes. This is the first named storm of this autumn and has the potential to bring wild conditions with impactful winds, heavy rain and the risk of flooding.

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Most of the strong winds stay out over the Irish Sea…. 

[Mark Parsons]

Its not even formed yet, so until it has we won't know the impacts........

[wimblettben]

A few models have dropped our winds by a good 10mph from when i last looked. We were going to get 60mph gusts but at the moment its looking more around 50mph.

Got 42mph up the hill yesterday with just windy weather so with a named storm I do wonder by how much more than this we will get.

[Wivenswold]

As I mentioned in the SE thread. Currently ECM is closest to the latest pressure charts, though Agnes is at 1013mb rather than the forecast 1012mb and the ridge to its north is also stronger. Small differences while Agnes forms could lead to bigger changes down the line. If pressure drops more slowly, she will take a more southerly track bringing the south coast and possibly the South of England into the warning area. 

Warmer Atlantic than normal too, so there are many variables in play with Agnes. 

[Jo Farrow]

5-day flood risk Very Low throughout although a bit of extra Text from Natural Resource Wales.

SEPA's flood forecast thoroughly linked to Met Office yellow rain warnings in their 3 day ahead flood outlook

Edited September 25, 2023 by Jo Farrow
spelling

[The PIT]

Still a bit of difference in the modelling. ECM has the low filling fairly quickly as it moves into Northern England UKMO much slower in regards to this. GFS fairly close to UKMO. Doesn't look to bad for us at the moment most of the winds reserved for the west. Could all change and the speed that it fills is the key.  GFS also goes for another low to push across south wales, midlands and Yorkshire Thursday evening and night.

[Jo Farrow]

9 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Still a bit of difference in the modelling. ECM has the low filling fairly quickly as it moves into Northern England UKMO much slower in regards to this. GFS fairly close to UKMO. Doesn't look to bad for us at the moment most of the winds reserved for the west. Could all change and the speed that it fills is the key.  GFS also goes for another low to push across south wales, midlands and Yorkshire Thursday evening and night.

That second one looks to link to ex-Ophelia, so bit of tropical Oomph into the rainbands from that 

[alexisj9]

3 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Most of the strong winds stay out over the Irish Sea…. 

Good, but does not mean there will be no bad impacts in land.

[Snowyowl9]

3 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

Good, but does not mean there will be no bad impacts in land.

A Sly mainly yes there will be disruption and damage..

Wales west will get hit hard as always..

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Different track this this vicious storm phew..

GFS bringing it further south now oh no..

This one did alot of damage..

There were so many leaves on the trees then late really..

This storm is a month earlier..

I remember that Oct 2002 storm...it was vicious. The wind blew the roof off the neighbour's shed.

Edited September 25, 2023 by Cheshire Freeze

[Ross90]

Looks pretty much non existent for Scotland and yet half the country is covered by the yellow warning. The winds were stronger yesterday than they're forecast to be on weds but we had no warning. Honestly think until they come up with some sort of more standardised and consistent approach to warnings and named storms it'll just become ever more farcical.

[matty40s]

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Looks like a storm in a tea cup to be honest......!

[Scuba steve]

Be afraid,very afraid,it’s coming

[damianslaw]

Early for the first named storm. In 2021 we had to wait until late November for first named storm. The last 3 years have been very quiet for both autumn and winter storms. 

Edited September 25, 2023 by damianslaw