Storm Agnes

[Ross90]

Even up here (central Scotland) doesn't look severe, 40-45 mph late tomorrow night is as high as it goes. Anything under 50 mph isn't worth a warning imo.

[parhelion]

a few things to ponder then...

will the warning area be reduced in the morning for those areas seeing more 'mediocre' wind gusts? I agree it seems more like a typical autumnal windy day/night here tomorrow

is the warning area more broad to allow for extra caution with many trees still being in full leaf so early in the season? That is, had such a storm occurred a month later, would it have the same warning area?

[richie3846]

2 minutes ago, parhelion said:

a few things to ponder then...

will the warning area be reduced in the morning for those areas seeing more 'mediocre' wind gusts? I agree it seems more like a typical autumnal windy day/night here tomorrow

is the warning area more broad to allow for extra caution with many trees still being in full leaf so early in the season? That is, had such a storm occurred a month later, would it have the same warning area?

Yeah I think it's the trees driving the broader warning area. It does make sense, especially with wet ground in many areas, much wetter than is typical for late September. Trees could more easily be uprooted. 

[Bristawl Si]

Just now, richie3846 said:

Yeah I think it's the trees driving the broader warning area. It does make sense, especially with wet ground in many areas, much wetter than is typical for late September. Trees could more easily be uprooted. 

Hmm...if my inconsiderate neighbour 2 doors down, who refuses to severely cut his tree back, could wake up Thurs morn with the monstrosity downed that would make our day at Chez Bris Si's.

[Scuba steve]

Still saying gusts of 55 mph considering trees are still in leaf for here  I’d say the warning is justified 

Edited September 26, 2023 by Scuba steve

[richie3846]

4 minutes ago, Bristle Si said:

Hmm...if my inconsiderate neighbour 2 doors down, who refuses to severely cut his tree back, could wake up Thurs morn with the monstrosity downed that would make our day at Chez Bris Si's.

That'll make a great picture for the 'Nature Pic' thread.

[Bristawl Si]

4 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

That'll make a great picture for the 'Nature Pic' thread.

Yeah, as long as it falls into the school grounds, behind our gaff. The damn thing is about 30 feet tall and almost the same wide.

[icykev]

I'm travelling on the Rosslare to Fishguard ferry tomorrow @19.30 departure.

Do you all think it will sail?

Will be a rough crossing for sure, touch and go I'd say

[emmett garland]

6 more counties now added to ORANGE warning in southern Ireland 

[matty40s]

1 hour ago, icykev said:

I'm travelling on the Rosslare to Fishguard ferry tomorrow @19.30 departure.

Do you all think it will sail?

Will be a rough crossing for sure, touch and go I'd say

It might set off, and you might be stuck in the Irish Sea overnight!!

[emmett garland]

6 minutes ago, matty40s said:

It might set off, and you might be stuck in the Irish Sea overnight!!

Its definitely deepening somewhat

[January Snowstorm]

Icon is deeper again. A dangerous looking storm for my location

[January Snowstorm]

Miami cyclone Centre say its a Category 3 storm with 110mph!!

[WillinGlossop]

10 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Miami cyclone Centre say its a Category 3 storm with 110mph!!

Is there a link to this? Can’t see on Miami website 

[matty40s]

11 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Miami cyclone Centre say its a Category 3 storm with 110mph!!

That's probably the same one that said Lee would be a Cat 6 plus

[January Snowstorm]

 

Edited September 26, 2023 by January Snowstorm

[Saint coolio]

17 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

 

Is the “joint” part of their name what they’ve been smoking?

[Metwatch]

Playing around with the water vapour imagery, Agnes looks stunning. 

 

1 hour ago, January Snowstorm said:

 

Don't pay attention to them at all, Met Office is your best bet or one of the accounts on twitter like Paul Blight or the Forecaster Nick who is also here on Netweather. 

Edited September 26, 2023 by Metwatch

[wimblettben]

4 hours ago, Ross90 said:

Even up here (central Scotland) doesn't look severe, 40-45 mph late tomorrow night is as high as it goes. Anything under 50 mph isn't worth a warning imo.

I feel like anything of 40mph or higher does deserve a warning to be honest even if it's just a yellow one as i have seen winds of that level take twigs or even small branches off trees which could still cause injury if unlucky enough to be under a tree with debris possibly hitting sensitive parts of the body such as the eyes.

Personal property can be damaged as well at that level though it would be very minor with mostly just things like fences getting into problems.

I would agree though that the most noticeable damage seems to alway's start occurring once you get to the 50mph or higher mark.

[Mark_p]

Cyclogenesis is so interesting, Agnes is intensifying - you can see that hook starting to develop. Model guidance has it peaking before it reaches land - I wonder how defined the shape of it will become overnight. 

[alexisj9]

4 hours ago, parhelion said:

a few things to ponder then...

will the warning area be reduced in the morning for those areas seeing more 'mediocre' wind gusts? I agree it seems more like a typical autumnal windy day/night here tomorrow

is the warning area more broad to allow for extra caution with many trees still being in full leaf so early in the season? That is, had such a storm occurred a month later, would it have the same warning area?

Remember it was actually the Irish met office, sorry can't remember what they are called, that named this storm for Thier impacts. It's not so bad for most of us.

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, January Snowstorm said:

Miami cyclone Centre say its a Category 3 storm with 110mph!!

Your kidding?, said it looked like a developing tropical system earlier, but it isn't is it?

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, January Snowstorm said:

 

Wind gusts and sustained winds, are two different things, this is not a cat 3 hurricane, or any other type of tropical cyclone with max gusts of 110.  It has some hurricane force gusts, but that's not the same thing, thank goodness.

[Mark_p]

Met Éireann has a different warning criteria to the UK Met Office, it's like what the UK Met used to do - taking absolute values as a threshold for each level rather than the impact vs likelihood matrix. In North West England I pay attention to them as they cover regions of the Irish Sea (also have family in Cork.) Both agencies will name a storm if either reaches Orange/Amber 'moderate' impacts. Met Éireann has such impacts quite widespread across southern counties of the republic and over the Celtic and Irish seas. 

/images/OG-icon.jpg

Met Éireann Warning System Explained - Met Éireann - The Irish Meteorological Service

WWW.MET.IE

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Met Éireann, the Irish National Meteorological Service, is the leading provider of weather information and related services for Ireland.

 

[Mark wheeler]

1 hour ago, January Snowstorm said:

 

That's hilarious