Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023

[pad199207]

Thunder & Lightning in Liverpool

[matty40s]

1 hour ago, pad199207 said:

Thunder & Lightning in Liverpool

Looks impressive from Blackpool 

[Metwatch]

Some truly beautiful skies tonight. Decaying showers lit by the vibrant orange sunset glow before a shower after sunset skimming to my north east which looked rather ominous. 

In the second photo with a careful look, you may be able to spot a faint sunset rainbow.

Timelapse of a weakening shower also lit by the setting sun. 

A cold airmass can still bring some photogenic skies!

[Metwatch]

Closer to that shower north of here.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Times like these I like to reassure myself by thinking how stressed I would be if there was a storm forecast for this evening

Edited October 16, 2023 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[The Tall Weatherman]

In the midst of calm some possible storms are possible on Thursday. Warmer and moister air should arrive from the southern near continent anchorage quite substantial Cape may arrive too with <1000j/kg locally. Despite my break I think based on the UKV we could have widespread storms around the south on Thursday afternoon into night.

[Nick F]

06z AROME nicely shows instability (CAPE shown by pink contours) and the threat of thunderstorms arrive from the south through tomorrow afternoon. My go to model for any thunderstorm risk now.

[Southern Storm]

2 hours ago, Nick F said:

06z AROME nicely shows instability (CAPE shown by pink contours) and the threat of thunderstorms arrive from the south through tomorrow afternoon. My go to model for any thunderstorm risk now.

Nice to see there's something showing on the models, just checked the Google weather app which shows storms for tomorrow afternoon/everything 

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook ️

An unstable setup is likely to develop across England throughout today with intense showers developing. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across Southern England bringing some lightning, hail, gusty winds & intense rainfall rates.

[Nick F]

THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 19 OCT 2023

Issued 2023-10-19 06:22:16
Valid: 19/10/2023 0600 - 20/10/2023 0600

Forecast Details

Upper trough over the N Atlantic continues to disrupt and extend SE into western Europe with progress east impeded by blocking upper-level ridge over Norwegian Sea. An upper low forms to south of Ireland on Thursday as the trough disrupts. Warm and moist airmass surging north ahead of the upper low SW of England, following rain band moving N across Scotland, will become increasingly unstable from the south from early afternoon, as a shortwave trough and associated cold pool moving north creates large scale ascent and steepens lapse rates. As a result, heavy showers and some thunderstorms look to develop and spread north across the southern half of Britain during the afternoon and evening, lightning most likely across S Wales, SW and central S England. Given recent rainfall leading to saturated ground, additional heavy rainfall from these showers or storms may lead to some localised flooding.

Forecast here: 

Severe Convective Weather & Storms Forecast - Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

 

[Southern Storm]

1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:

Convective Outlook ️

An unstable setup is likely to develop across England throughout today with intense showers developing. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across Southern England bringing some lightning, hail, gusty winds & intense rainfall rates.

I couldn't be placed any better going off the map you posted, obviously things won't pan out exactly as shown but nice to see regardless

What are your thoughts on timings? It looks like the majority of the activity will be this afternoon which is the worst time as I'm at work until 4pm, I was hoping there might be something later on this evening, I get the feeling things will be dying down by then.

[Eagle Eye]

12 minutes ago, Southern Storm said:

I couldn't be placed any better going off the map you posted, obviously things won't pan out exactly as shown but nice to see regardless

What are your thoughts on timings? It looks like the majority of the activity will be this afternoon which is the worst time as I'm at work until 4pm, I was hoping there might be something later on this evening, I get the feeling things will be dying down by then.

Dying down later this evening yeah, late afternoon best time, till early evening really. 

[Alderc 2.0]

3 hours ago, Southern Storm said:

I couldn't be placed any better going off the map you posted, obviously things won't pan out exactly as shown but nice to see regardless

What are your thoughts on timings? It looks like the majority of the activity will be this afternoon which is the worst time as I'm at work until 4pm, I was hoping there might be something later on this evening, I get the feeling things will be dying down by then.

All the activity just missing us currently, assume some will pop up in the channel? Radar looks completely saturated.

[Andy Bown]

15 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

All the activity just missing us currently, assume some will pop up in the channel? Radar looks completely saturated.

Nothing is really popping up in the channel either. Showers keep developing just inland and running North in linear fashion like on this latest radar grab.

 I expect more lines to start forming around the Beaminster/Bere Regis/Wimborne areas soon.

[Andy Bown]

Just now, Andy Bown said:

I expect more lines to start forming around the Beaminster/Bere Regis/Wimborne areas soon.

Lol it’s happening already! Downpour near Bere Regis!

[Lu.]

Currently in tairgwaith definitely some loud booms coming. Lovely 40th birthday treat!

[Metwatch]

Interesting to see 2 convective outlooks side by side like this! Always nice to compare and then verify to see how well it performed!

[Alderc 2.0]

45 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

Interesting to see 2 convective outlooks side by side like this! Always nice to compare and then verify to see how well it performed!

Unfortunately both not fairing so well with the only sferics west of Brum. 

[Allseasons-Si]

16 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

Unfortunately both not fairing so well with the only sferics west of Brum. 

Look in the channel

[Southern Storm]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Look in the channel

Yes, I'm wondering if my wish of storms lasting until later in the evening will materialize, or will they die off before they even get near us, judging by the the current radar, we might have a decent shot of lightning, and maybe not too far from sunset!

I'll be keeping a very close eye on the radar, and camera at the ready just in case!

[Allseasons-Si]

S/central coast might have a few embedded storms in that lot,...watch for those too.

[Metwatch]

Nice bit of pileus from Ilford earlier

[Southern Storm]

Just a wet mess here in Christchurch, it's looking quite dark to my east though, I wouldn't be surprised if somewhere north of here gets something as it looks like it's still developing 

[Southern Storm]

I'm hearing some nice loud crackles on the radio, nothing showing on lightning maps though, I wonder witch cells are responsible?

The heavier stuff out in the channel is still going strong but nothing electrical appears to be coming out of it. If it continues on its current course it's going to hit somewhere between Bournemouth and the Isle of wight. But it's all very uninspiring and I'm not expecting anything exciting but I love to be proven wrong

 

 

Edited October 19, 2023 by Southern Storm

[Storm mad]

Looks like cells firing in the far south East