Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023

[Supacell]

Although generally the UK is more likely to see storms between April and September it is definitely not unheard of to see storms outside of these months. Infact, over previous years I have noticed October storms become more common and just last year we saw some big storm events in the month of October.

With some models showing a very late season burst of heat next weekend it is certainly possible there could be more storms. Indeed, in the more reliable time frame we have a risk of storms. 

Tomorrow it looks as though a waving front through central parts will reinvigorate as warmer and more humid air is pulled northwards. This could allow thunderstorms to develop just to the south of the waving front, more especially later in the afternoon and then through the evening and night. I'm still not seeing total agreement as to whether anything will happen but its worth keeping an eye on.

To see back on September, which was an active month for some, the old thread is over here: 

Keep chatting and discussing as we head through mid Autumn. Will there be any more storms?

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, Supacell said:

Although generally the UK is more likely to see storms between April and September it is definitely not unheard of to see storms outside of these months. Infact, over previous years I have noticed October storms become more common and just last year we saw some big storm events in the month of October.

With some models showing a very late season burst of heat next weekend it is certainly possible there could be more storms. Indeed, in the more reliable time frame we have a risk of storms. 

Tomorrow it looks as though a waving front through central parts will reinvigorate as warmer and more humid air is pulled northwards. This could allow thunderstorms to develop just to the south of the waving front, more especially later in the afternoon and then through the evening and night. I'm still not seeing total agreement as to whether anything will happen but its worth keeping an eye on.

To see back on September, which was an active month for some, the old thread is over here: 

Keep chatting and discussing as we head through mid Autumn. Will there be any more storms?

The longest storm I've ever been in happened in October, was down to coastal orographic lift, lasted from about 2am in the morning till 12pm the next day.

The loudest thunder and most damaging cloud to ground definitely positive lightning strike happened in march. Storm season can be any time of the year.

[Alderc 2.0]

Last Octobers storms were some of the strongest I’ve seen this country. Certainly seems a trend that while thundery activity is diminishing in summer proper it’s increasing in September/October, almost a bit like a very moderate Mediterranean climate.

[Supacell]

56 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

The longest storm I've ever been in happened in October, was down to coastal orographic lift, lasted from about 2am in the morning till 12pm the next day.

The loudest thunder and most damaging cloud to ground definitely positive lightning strike happened in march. Storm season can be any time of the year.

Absolutely. I witnessed a squall line pass over Derby in January 2014. It went on to produce a tornado near to Retford. It's just that storms aren't as commonplace in the cooler months.

However, in simple terms storms are caused by cooler air above warm air. This can happen at anytime and arguably could lead to an increase in coastal storm activity in the Autumn, especially with a warmer SST.

[A Face like Thunder]

I've seen reference to a thunderstorm in London lasting 12 hours starting 4pm tomorrow. Is this a possibility or is it someone trying to earn a few pennies?

[alexisj9]

16 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:

I've seen reference to a thunderstorm in London lasting 12 hours starting 4pm tomorrow. Is this a possibility or is it someone trying to earn a few pennies?

God knows, probably came from my post, lol. Totally different synoptics. Here we had cold aloft, warm water and a wind blowing I think it was from the west south west, and orographic lift help storms develop along the coast. It is a pep up of the front over us now, so where ever that happens to be tomorrow will have some storms form to it's south, probably thundery rain at best. We'll see tomorrow I guess 

Edited October 1, 2023 by alexisj9

[Supacell]

27 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:

I've seen reference to a thunderstorm in London lasting 12 hours starting 4pm tomorrow. Is this a possibility or is it someone trying to earn a few pennies?

Yes, someone trying to earn a few pennies. Sounds like a Daily Express style headline. Taking what is a risk of storms for over a 12 hour period and turning it into a 12 hour thunderstorm. A little bit like the risk of snow over Cairngorm translating to a headline of UK wide blizzards

[donnerundblitzer]

Does anyone know how often the Metoffice weather model updates? I can see it updated at 12:00, but I am wondering how many times this happens a day. Tomorrow is currently looking interesting around the Gloucestershire area.                                                                                                                

Edited October 1, 2023 by donnerundblitzer

[Jamie M]

Some storms possibly on Tuesday

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook️ 

Some Theta-E advection will allow for a few pre-frontal storms to form along the south and move NE throughout the afternoon. This occurring in an area of only really up to 500 J/KG of CAPE, so lightning is likely to be very sparodic. 

 

Fairly clustered cells should start forming, sort of along the SE edge of the front, during the early to mid afternoon in southern areas (maybe not quite along the coast though) and move NE or NNE depending on exact steering towards East Anglia into the evening hours before weakening. No real threats expected with these semi-isolated cells which may be more pulse-type and recycling than the same specific cells move towards that area. No real threats associated with these. 

 

There may be an uptick in CAPE into the S/SE in the evening for some more organised lightning to potentially occur. However, there looks to be no real trigger so that CAPE may not be used up at all.

 

As a side note, there may be isolated showers throughout the day in parts of western Scotland, Northern Ireland and western Ireland. May pose a risk for an isolated lightning strike.

[ChannelThunder]

Looking at the origin of that theta-E plume, today really could've gone bang if it was happening in July or August! 

Also, it looks to be the last possibly 'interesting' day of weather for a while, before we enter a long benign period

[wimblettben]

Some Unstable Mid level clouds around while going to get some shopping this morning.

[Mapantz]

Lightning detected back home.

[mike5900]

Just now, Mapantz said:

Lightning detected back home.

Lightning  near Weymouth. 

[Sprites]

4 hours ago, ChannelThunder said:

Looking at the origin of that theta-E plume, today really could've gone bang if it was happening in July or August! 

Also, it looks to be the last possibly 'interesting' day of weather for a while, before we enter a long benign period

October/November can be good along southern/western coasts. Ok not summer MCS but waterspouts and thunder 

[Alderc 2.0]

A handful of sferics showing up across Dorset and Wiltshire. 

[matty40s]

3 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

A handful of sferics showing up across Dorset and Wiltshire. 

 

[Andy Bown]

A sudden absolute downpour after some light rain. Huge drops of rain.

What is happening above the low level murk!?

[Alderc 2.0]

Some pretty explosive developments on radar with cells going from nothing to 100mm p/h+ rain rates in 10-15mins. Shame about all the low level clag. 
 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Storms breaking our quite generally along the central coastal areas and inland

[Andy Bown]

Now several booms of thunder. At ground/low level it looks like a bog standard dull, wet afternoon. Above it something has really kicked off! 

[alexisj9]

7 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

A sudden absolute downpour after some light rain. Huge drops of rain.

What is happening above the low level murk!?

It's unstable, hot air moving north v cold front moving south.

[CoventryWeather]

Seems much more unstable than forecast. Bonds (possibly) better for later on. 

[80sWeather]

Thunder heard South of Cambridge 

[minus10]

Gosh it feels so stormy out even though just grey clag..had a few large drops and a rumble..