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Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023

Supacell

By Supacell
in Storms & Severe Weather

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ChannelThunder Accomplished

ChannelThunder

Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
Posted

I was in a work call at the time, but plenty of cracks of thunder recently. East side of the island having the most fun though as per!

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Southern Storm Experienced

Southern Storm

Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather what else!
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
Posted
3 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:

I was in a work call at the time, but plenty of cracks of thunder recently. East side of the island having the most fun though as per!

Hopefully tomorrow will deliver the goods 🤞

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Eagle Eye Maestro

Eagle Eye

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
Posted

Will actually do a full discussion for tomorrow's event along with the map tonight, if I remember to write the discussion. 

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*Stormforce~beka* Maestro

*Stormforce~beka*

Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
Posted
1 hour ago, ChannelThunder said:

I was in a work call at the time, but plenty of cracks of thunder recently. East side of the island having the most fun though as per!

Dude you need to move house ...

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ChannelThunder Accomplished

ChannelThunder

Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
Posted
3 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Dude you need to move house ...

Ah, but this side's much nicer overall 😉 

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Jamie M Accomplished

Jamie M

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
Posted

image.thumb.png.54bb88d58f08eeb8b927a7a1b8ff229e.png

Tony Gilbert's take for Sat/Sun 

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Harry's House Aficionado

Harry's House

Posted
  • Location: Hamstreet Kent, recently of Pagham nr Bognor Regis
  • Location: Hamstreet Kent, recently of Pagham nr Bognor Regis
Posted

Odd flashes of lightning seen, but torrential rain has eased.

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ChannelThunder Accomplished

ChannelThunder

Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
Posted (edited)

Controversial to some no doubt, but I do enjoy weather like this where we're pummeled with days of unstable autumnal conditions. Yes, they're not proper thunderstorms for the most part, but it's all good fun. Could be a named storm next Thurs to add to the interest, too.

Edited by ChannelThunder
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matt111 Maestro

matt111

Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
Posted
Just now, ChannelThunder said:

Controversial, but I do enjoy weather like this where we're pummeled with days of unstable autumnal conditions. Yes, they're not proper thunderstorms for the most part, but it's all good fun. Could be a named storm next Thurs to add to the interest, too.

Me too. Better than cloudy weather with the odd sunny spell that we often get plagued with at this time of year, 

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sunnijim Seasoned

sunnijim

Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
Posted
36 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Me too. Better than cloudy weather with the odd sunny spell that we often get plagued with at this time of year, 

Me too,there seems to be many people, that unless building blocks for cold/snow are being put in place would refur to this type of weather as 'crud' or a waste of time .

The cloudscapes were awesome again today against blue sky,and thoroughly enjoyed a Biblical downpour in Lymington as we headed over to the Isle of Wight.

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Buzzard Enthusiast

Buzzard

Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard (100m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Continental. Dry air, storms and snow.
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard (100m ASL)
Posted

Down visiting the folks in Poole and absolutely hammering it down! Trying to get to sleep 😉 No thunder though. 

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Eagle Eye Maestro

Eagle Eye

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
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Posted

Convective Outlook⚡️ 

A warm front along the same line as a cold front to the south and north will advect a Theta-E plume behind the initial front. The strong moisture will build up post frontal showers in an area of 800+ J/KG of MLCAPE. Some fairly frequent lightning is possible given the amount of energy yielded behind the front along with the stream of showers likely along a PV lobe through the channel and lifting with the front. This occurs along a jet exit meaning that forcing won't be an issue. 

 

35+ knots of DLS and some backed and hooked hodograph may allow for a Supercell to form. The straightness of the hodo after the initial hook suggests Supercell potential in some areas. 

 

The tornadic potential is also one to keep an eye on. In areas, the LLS could reach 40 knots. That coincides with hooked hodograph behind the front with. Along with the stretched vorticity, which is strongly streamwise compared to previous high LLS events and that can significantly increase tornadic potential. Any tornado's would be brief and weak with little energy and that's where the main issue comes in. DCAPE out strengths the 3CAPE and I suspect the vorticity will be stretched more crosswise than models suggest based off that and the energy in the 3CAPE is rather low (whilst still in severe status) for anything tornadic beyond brief and weak. A bust scenario is where the energy is stretched crosswise due to DCAPE not contributing to inflow. However, I suspect a brief tornado has a fairly decent chance of occurring in 3CAPE maximas.

 

 

The 0 degree line being so low may allow for some weak hail to form. Maybe energy won't be enough, I some areas it could be though for 1cm hail or larger. Though storm relative inflow is rather weak.

 

Timing should be, moving NE from the south in the early to mid afternoon into the Midlands (probably more Eastern) along with the central south, southeast and East Anglia in the evening and overnight. Maybe a bit more north than that on some models.

20231028_111255.thumb.jpg.14ecdeaebff01665c1790342cf2e6114.jpg

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ChannelThunder Accomplished

ChannelThunder

Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
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Posted
13 hours ago, sunnijim said:

Me too,there seems to be many people, that unless building blocks for cold/snow are being put in place would refur to this type of weather as 'crud' or a waste of time .

The cloudscapes were awesome again today against blue sky,and thoroughly enjoyed a Biblical downpour in Lymington as we headed over to the Isle of Wight.

Was the Lymington downpour at about 1pm or thereabouts? We were walking the dog up Broad Lane, which has a great view over Lymington etc. We watched as the town disappeared under an intense rain core that I couldn't believe wasn't popping out lightning.

 

In other news, TORRO have issued a tornado watch for many of us for later!

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The Tall Weatherman Rising Star

The Tall Weatherman

Posted
  • Location: Thrapston | Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather
  • Location: Thrapston | Northamptonshire
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Posted

TORRO Discussion:

A frontal system will move NE across the area this afternoon and into this evening/overnight. A couple of upper shortwaves will accompany this. The exact morphology of areas of convection remains somewhat uncertain - however, an area of showery rain, with some lightning noted (especially near the triple point) is noted in the western English Channel - this area of precip will continue to move NE this afternoon/into tonight. 

With strong low-level shear, tornadoes cannot be ruled out with some of the stronger cells, with the area around and a little east of the triple point perhaps being more favoured. This corridor looks to be from around about Dorset/Hampshire NE towards the Wash. However, some discrete cells may occur east of this too. With favourable deep-layer shear, supercells cannot be ruled out - any supercell may also bring hail 15-20mm diameter, and squally gusts, as well as a tornado threat.

Another area of showery rain/embedded thunderstorms may spread NE this evening into tonight, likely associated with a second upper trough. Surface flow should have veered somewhat, suggesting gusty outflow winds may be the bigger threat - however, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out with this, especially in southern counties from Hampshire eastwards. 

Could contain:

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Thunders Community Regular

Thunders

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill home, school Eastbourne
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, hurricanes, and my favourite tornadoes
  • Location: Bexhill home, school Eastbourne
Posted (edited)

in the warning zone! i didn't even know we might be in the risk until i got attacked by hail and rain on the way to bowling. checked the bbc weather forecast for today/tonight and we have some thunderstorms showing up.image.thumb.png.b4f9c09dc8d072ae70494db8aea16816.png

Edited by Thunders
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Thunders Community Regular

Thunders

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill home, school Eastbourne
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, hurricanes, and my favourite tornadoes
  • Location: Bexhill home, school Eastbourne
Posted

main event is this evening/overnight here i think

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ChannelThunder Accomplished

ChannelThunder

Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
Posted

A subtle eastward shift on the latest UKV.

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Thunders Community Regular

Thunders

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill home, school Eastbourne
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, hurricanes, and my favourite tornadoes
  • Location: Bexhill home, school Eastbourne
Posted
47 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:

A subtle eastward shift on the latest UKV.

good for us easterners then. hopefully you get some of the late season action too.

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ChannelThunder Accomplished

ChannelThunder

Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
Posted

image.thumb.png.7e02035fba9918f97017b2f0bba97ffa.png

 

Lift off

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Southern Storm Experienced

Southern Storm

Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather what else!
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
Posted (edited)

 

3 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:

image.thumb.png.7e02035fba9918f97017b2f0bba97ffa.png

 

Lift off

I was literally typing the exact same thing 😂

Its pretty grim out there though, I want to head out, but with this cold wind and rain I'm struggling to get motivated 

Edited by Southern Storm
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ChannelThunder Accomplished

ChannelThunder

Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
Posted
11 minutes ago, Southern Storm said:

 

I was literally typing the exact same thing 😂

Its pretty grim out there though, I want to head out, but with this cold wind and rain I'm struggling to get motivated 

The sferics are lost in this wet mess...

image.thumb.png.fb63cf4494b56e14afaea136dbc6c069.png

Too wet for shooting other than setting up in the shelter of the car boot perhaps...

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Southern Storm Experienced

Southern Storm

Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather what else!
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:

The sferics are lost in this wet mess...

image.thumb.png.fb63cf4494b56e14afaea136dbc6c069.png

Too wet for shooting other than setting up in the shelter of the car boot perhaps...

Sheltering in the boot of the car is probably the best bet unless more durable shelter can be found, I stopped by the over cliff carpark in Highcliffe and it was quite windy, which makes me think that sheltering in the car will not give good results from a photography point of view 

there's also a chance to catch the partial lunar eclipse but is not going to be easy, I believe last Mays storms also coincided with a lunar eclipse, could be a good sign

 Good luck if you do head out! 

Edited by Southern Storm
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