Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[Battleground Snow]

Interesting icon at 180 hours, if the vortex leaves Greenland quickly it allows a ridge to go up, but if like the ecm it hangs around then the pattern gets flattened out.... Long way to run with this episode 

[TSNWK]

28 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Interesting icon at 180 hours, if the vortex leaves Greenland quickly it allows a ridge to go up, but if like the ecm it hangs around then the pattern gets flattened out.... Long way to run with this episode 

not sure it really helps @Battleground Snow this mornings 06Z did the same and was looking splendid around day 8 - but then flattened the lot from day 10 onwards.

[Lukesluckybunch]

30 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Interesting icon at 180 hours, if the vortex leaves Greenland quickly it allows a ridge to go up, but if like the ecm it hangs around then the pattern gets flattened out.... Long way to run with this episode 

Ideally we would like that trough over scandi..digging a little further south,let's hope the high pushing into Greenland makes it..and exactly doesn't flatten out!

[Battleground Snow]

7 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

not sure it really helps @Battleground Snow this mornings 06Z did the same and was looking splendid around day 8 - but then flattened the lot from day 10 onwards.

Yeh it did, but if we shift the main part of the vortex away it will at least give a better chance of height rises in the places we need for a cold shot .. either way I don't think a ridge is going to be sustained for very long regardless.

ECM earlier was awful for any cold chances, look at the purple to the north, compared to GFS 

Edited November 15, 2023 by Battleground Snow

[Don]

7 hours ago, MattH said:

However, notice the signal for the -ve VP200 anoms to return eastwards, in the time, through December. This is the key watch because as we found out last year, any noteworthy MJO event will be important from a strat perspective and perhaps aiding to bring amplification again deeper into December. All are highly subjective, but if the timing is as such, then a Christmas/New Year cold spell *could* evolve.

Cheers, Matt.

Very interesting and sounds like a December 'potentially' similar to 2000?

 

[Uncertainty]

21 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

not sure it really helps @Battleground Snow this mornings 06Z did the same and was looking splendid around day 8 - but then flattened the lot from day 10 onwards.

This run has more upstream amplification… the polar profile is going bonkers too!

The shortwave near S Greenland might scupper it this time, but scene to the NW is remarkable!

 

 

GEM about to go full Monty 

Edited November 15, 2023 by Uncertainty

[swfc]

12z gfs already better at 190hr mark than the 6z towards the esb. Better build of pressure.mighnt not amount to much but hey ho

[Methuselah]

And here's this week's Ten-Day Trend. . . The Met. Office will always be my go-to place for outlooks: 

 

 

[northwestsnow]

GEM

We can dream, ( And GEM almost certainly is).

Edited November 15, 2023 by northwestsnow

[Lukesluckybunch]

GEM is absolutely lovley!but how can it be so different from this morning's run?

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, Uncertainty said:

This run has more upstream amplification… the polar profile is going bonkers too!

The shortwave near S Greenland might scupper it this time, but scene to the NW is remarkable!

 

 

GEM about to go full Monty 

Yeh I seen that, highly doubt that little shortwave will be there next run, perhaps the models are trending back to the original more blocked pattern for now?

Just always have to remember 7-10 days is always subject to big changes run to run.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I think you should all call me a doctor or get the straight jacket...its the time of the year when I go bonkers and lose the plot! It may be to late too save me now folks....

Edited November 15, 2023 by MATTWOLVES 3

[Uncertainty]

 

One for the archives that! 

[swfc]

Tbh its not worth getting stressesd atm imo. The flipping of runs shows the uncertainty on the models and nhp. Let it do its dance and see if its a waltz or a goose step

[bluearmy]

Two 12z ops so far with stonking blocks atop the pole by day 10 

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Two 12z ops so far with stonking blocks atop the pole by day 10 

and cruddy highs to our south to leave us in mildness...

Edited November 15, 2023 by TSNWK

[bluearmy]

13 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

and cruddy highs to our south to leave us in mildness...

Not very bothered about that (gem doesn’t have the gfs Atlantic low btw) 

detail at day 10 isn’t worth too much attention - the fact that we continue to see such large high anoms over the polar field is way more relevant as we head into December 

Edited November 15, 2023 by bluearmy

[swfc]

8 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

and cruddy highs to our south to leave us in mildness...

Its the bigger picture tho plus its one run

[Uncertainty]

The 12z GEFS is more amplified upstream than the 6z

I imagine a significant number will follow the GEM route.

Im still extremely cautious about this amplification. The UKMO is not remotely interested and ec has backed off. If the latter returns to the fray tonight then the eyebrows will raise like the prognosticated Atlantic amplification!!

[Battleground Snow]

7 minutes ago, Uncertainty said:

The 12z GEFS is more amplified upstream than the 6z

I imagine a significant number will follow the GEM route.

Im still extremely cautious about this amplification. The UKMO is not remotely interested and ec has backed off. If the latter returns to the fray tonight then the eyebrows will raise like the prognosticated Atlantic amplification!!

Let's see where the control, goes with no shortwave in mix

[That ECM]

I’d be happy to get here for a couple of reasons. Firstly, calmer and less heavy rain which would be very welcome. Secondly, it would be interesting to see where the high may go.

[Met4Cast]

9 hours ago, MattH said:

Just a quick addition to this one, as there is model data at hand which highlights these discussions well looking ahead...The main caveat is that this is model data and for weeks down the line, so take on that on board first.

However, the CFSv2 plot highlights this next tropical convection wave well, which is mentioned by Tamara here, through December, with an associated signal for a WWB (yellow and orange colours)

The other plot I always note is the EWP zonal harmonics plot for CHI as well. We can see the expected evolution through the short-medium and long-term here, with the initial -ve VP200 anomalies through the Pacific, continuing eastwards into the E Pacific and the W Hem by the end of November. This is what will likely signal another temporary fall in AAM, with the GWO returning to a potential phase 8 or 1, it is through this period, during the end of Nov and into Dec that if coupling of the strat and trop does takes place, then a very unsettled/stormy spell may well evolve as we move into December.

However, notice the signal for the -ve VP200 anoms to return eastwards, in the time, through December. This is the key watch because as we found out last year, any noteworthy MJO event will be important from a strat perspective and perhaps aiding to bring amplification again deeper into December. All are highly subjective, but if the timing is as such, then a Christmas/New Year cold spell *could* evolve.

Cheers, Matt.

Hi Matt, great post as always! 

Is that first chart available publicly? If so would it be possible to DM/reply the link, I’ve not seen the chart before but could prove quite useful! 

[booferking]

Gfs 12z mean steady as she goes. 

& control 

Edited November 15, 2023 by booferking

[Mucka]

17 minutes ago, booferking said:

Gfs 12z mean steady as she goes. 

& control 

That's a pretty decent 10 day mean which suggests this chase has some legs yet.

 

Countering that are recent UKMO and ECM Op runs which are very flat upstream and it seems this is a fine margins all or nothing situation as far as Atlantic blocking is concerned.

Either the Atlantic amplification gets overrun and we see a flattening or it holds and energy is split and we see Atlantic blocking and Greenland height rises.

That is all around 6/7 days out and the ensemble spreads show there is plenty of room for swings one way or the other in coming output.

It would be nice if ECM Op swung back tonight but obviously not conclusive.

 

If we do get the mid/high lat blocking to our W then cold & snow are still not guaranteed, but one step at a time... 

 

 

 

Edited November 15, 2023 by Mucka

[seabreeze86]

Shamelessly cherry picking. GFS control is a absolute corker tonight