Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, ANYWEATHER said:

What do you mean by game over?

no deep cold and deep snow,

[swfc]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Eric W on twitter has posted his revised Dec - march outlook

Well he must be a prophet 

Met office forecast are wt best hit and miss but if it floats your boat. Im sure big Joe has similar ideas

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Surely that’ll be a great 192, the colds hanging in, I imagine low dew points too. North of the trough looks primed

All too far north with trough and it did nothing good between  144 and 168 so not seeing why it would drift south…. ?

[Tim Bland]

snow for some end of next week on the ECM . That low to the south could end up a bit further north ️

[BartyHater]

The ECM168 looks to be a classic example of no matter how difficult it looks to kill an Easterly, the models will always find a way to kill an Easterly.

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

no deep cold and deep snow,

On the 23rd of November you are unhappy viewing this? 

[Metwatch]

Compared to the ECM 00z, does bring in the Atlantic a lot quicker, the lows probably phase, and also heights increase around the Balkans, sending all of that stuff here. However quite the frontal snow event north of the M4.

[suxer]

19 minutes ago, That ECM said:

But some aren’t happy?

That's great and not even winter

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Metwatch said:

Compared to the ECM 00z, does bring in the Atlantic a lot quicker, the lows probably phase, and also heights increase around the Balkans, sending all of that stuff here. However quite the frontal snow event north of the M4.

I’ll take that, it’s much colder than the other models with the trough 

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, Metwatch said:

Compared to the ECM 00z, does bring in the Atlantic a lot quicker, the lows probably phase, and also heights increase around the Balkans, sending all of that stuff here. However quite the frontal snow event north of the M4.

Boom..goes further north wouldn’t complain at this for the 1st day of Winter!!

[markw2680]

What on earth am I reading on here, some of the comments are quite frankly baffling lol. It’s getting colder with chances of snow. We are talking about 5,6,7 days away etc so comments if game over or it’s too far north are irrelevant at this stage

[Jacob]

Battle ground snow!!!!

[Kentspur]

2 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

Compared to the ECM 00z, does bring in the Atlantic a lot quicker, the lows probably phase, and also heights increase around the Balkans, sending all of that stuff here. However quite the frontal snow event north of the M4.

The day I head north of the M4 to go to those pine forests of East Anglia

[TauntonRoss]

ECM is okay I suppose...

[sheikhy]

Ridiculous snow storm on ecm!!!

[Pembroke Dangler]

1 minute ago, TauntonRoss said:

ECM is okay I suppose...

Yep I’d Bank that for first day of winter proper, I’d take a bit of risk reward this early in the season with 3 months or so of winter still to come it’s like a posh starter before the main course later in December if the Global drivers deliver the goods

[Metwatch]

The margins are extremely fine, 100 miles further north west and that's probably mostly rain, or at a lot less snow. South east is back to mild there.  Considering this is 7 days out, virtually anything could happen, I will contain my excitement on this one

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

What on earth am I reading on here, some of the comments are quite frankly baffling lol. It’s getting colder with chances of snow. We are talking about 5,6,7 days away etc so comments if game over or it’s too far north are irrelevant at this stage

True Marky, low tracks perfectly on this, GFS 00Z showing something similar too for 01 Dec

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

What on earth am I reading on here, some of the comments are quite frankly baffling lol. It’s getting colder with chances of snow. We are talking about 5,6,7 days away etc so comments if game over or it’s too far north are irrelevant at this stage

it did the trick - Frankley mate, if you, Northfield, Ley Hill, Gannow, Rubery etc get buried you need to thank me.

[Ali1977]

Just now, Metwatch said:

The margins are extremely fine, 100 miles further north west and that's probably mostly rain, or at a lot less snow. South east is back to mild there.  Considering this is 7 days out, virtually anything could happen, I will contain my excitement on this one

Altitude within that would get feet - if only it was T12 

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ridiculous snow storm on ecm!!!

Where sheikhy +?? 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, swfc said:

Where sheikhy +?? 

Cyberspace in about 12 hours 

[Kentspur]

7 minutes ago, Jacob said:

Battle ground snow!!!!

On closer inspection it does breach the Thames/M4 quite substantially id be travelling from 3cms to 10cms on this day!

[Ali1977]

Just now, swfc said:

Where sheikhy +?? 

There 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, swfc said:

Where sheikhy +?? 

Midlands - somebody's posted the chart above!