Storm Ciarán

[Metwatch]

Ciaran coming into view on Meteociel now: https://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/satellite.php?mode=animation-visible-special

 

[Mcconnor8]

Wouldn't be surprised to see a red warning issued for the South East coastline if the UKMO/UKV model falls in line with the other models later today.

[weatherobsuk]

 

[Mapantz]

Well I got the transmitter down. I could see a black cloud about 5 miles away and moving this way whilst I was still undoing nuts. I then got bombarded with hail and huge drops of rain.

I've got to go back up to finish some cabling. It's amazing how much windier it is at 30 feet and no obstructions.

[Fiona Robertson]

Green circle is current position of Ciaran,wind map is at 250 hPa. Second image is Sfc windmap, green circle in same position as previous image.

Edited November 1, 2023 by Fiona Robertson

[Ian Ballinger]

Any good costal webcams ?

[bbtablet]

14 minutes ago, Ian Ballinger said:

Any good costal webcams ?

 

Splashcam | Watersplash Jersey

WWW.WATERSPLASHJERSEY.COM

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Check out the livestream of St. Ouen's Bay from the Watersplash.

This one in Jersey looking very threatened.

Edited November 1, 2023 by bbtablet
addition

[stripeyfox]

54 minutes ago, Rammie said:

Is the track of this pretty much certain now? Is there no chance at all that it all ends up 100 miles north of current prediction?

This is a great question. I'm not sure of the answer, but hope others might be able to confirm?

[Mcconnor8]

Just now, stripeyfox said:

This is a great question. I'm not sure of the answer, but hope others might be able to confirm?

This was the spread of tracks from the GFS 06z ensemble, gives a good idea of the range that there still is 

[bbtablet]

21 minutes ago, Ian Ballinger said:

Any good costal webcams ?

Sennen Cove, Cornwall, in contrast to Jersey, looking particularly beautiful on full screen this afternoon as nature prepares to put on a show. Anyone fancy some surfing this afternoon?

I notice the house in the foreground being built/renovated is without its roof already - I wonder how that will affect it in the storm?

Sennen Cove Live Webcam

WWW.CAMSECURE.CO.UK

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Sennen Cove live webcam overlooks the beautiful Sennen Cove in Cornwall UK from an ideal location high above the cove.

 

Edited November 1, 2023 by bbtablet

[stripeyfox]

Just now, Mcconnor8 said:

This was the spread of tracks from the GFS 06z ensemble, gives a good idea of the range that there still is 

Thank you! So the track is not certain - and 50 miles each way could make a big difference to the amount of coastal/inland areas affected?

 

[IanT]

3 minutes ago, stripeyfox said:

Thank you! So the track is not certain - and 50 miles each way could make a big difference to the amount of coastal/inland areas affected?

 

Correct.

[Metwatch]

1 hour ago, Tamara said:

In very basic terms, the dynamics of this storm are quite different to the 1987 storm. Track & depth have obvious similarities, but unlike 1987 this storm does not possess the dynamics to create a sting jet.

The rapid cyclonic deepening of this storm is created by the low crossing a stark thermal boundary of the jetstream and creating a vortex funneling effect with the very rapid deepening. But there is no forcing suggested of pulling air down from the mid troposphere to the surface and fracturing the frontal system as air pressure rises extremely rapidly in the immediate wake of the low (a sting jet) All the forcing from this storm comes from cold conveyors of air c/o the mixing of the very different airmasses from where the low crossed the jetstream from the tropical to polar side.

The low then starts to fill again as the effects of the crossing of the thermal boundary are fully mixed out & oceanic fuelling is cut off.

Seen a comparison made to Ciaran being more similar to Lothar of December 1999.

Edited November 1, 2023 by Metwatch

[snowspotter]

9 minutes ago, IanT said:

Correct.

I don’t think it’s going to deviate much at all from the latest met office forecast to be honest . Check out the video on their website for the latest track of it . 

[stewfox]

Just now, snowspotter said:

I don’t think it’s going to deviate much at all from the latest met office forecast to be honest . Check out the video on their website for the latest track of it . 

I've know about this storm for nearly a week as proposing to travel 100 miles including M25 etcThursday evening.  Hopefully the worse will have passed by then. 

[weatherobsuk]

Currently there's moderate snowfall on the Cairngorm mountains with colder air aloft being dragged southwards ahead of Ciaran.

[ThundersnowDays]

Plougonvelin, Brittany webcam 

Webcam Plougonvelin - Le Trez Hir - Bretagne - France - Vision-Environnement

WWW.VISION-ENVIRONNEMENT.COM

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Visualisez en vidéo et en direct la webcam touristique de Plougonvelin - Le Trez Hir, localisée dans la région Bretagne, France.

 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

5 hours ago, ChannelThunder said:

I'm a homeowner in a pretty exposed location, so yes, it perhaps goes against logic to want such weather, but being a weather forum, I feel safe to say such things. 

I'm 50:50 I have to admit. The extreme side of me is like bring it on! But now I'm a mother I'm in more protection mode. I don't want ot loose electricity. And have to deal with2 bored, cold, hungry kids. Plus all the practicalities. Just argh no!!! If we had a log fire and some other means of I would be more in your camp ...

[philglossop]

Road schemes in progress being made safe. Planned works for next two days falling like 9 pins. 

All staff told to work from home where possible tomorrow. 

[alexisj9]

Changed my mind not doing the full shop today, might be a waste of money if I'm unlucky enough to lose electric, I'll buy in for today and tomorrow, do the main shop Friday. Just not liking the 6z trend, might go south again may be, but I'm not sure on that. It's pylons here.

Edited November 1, 2023 by alexisj9

[James Maidstone]

UkV still sticking to the Southern Tracking.  Very interested to see the 12z GFS, ECM, Arpege and Arome.  Icon 12z is alligning with a South Coast track

[bbtablet]

Tide coming in at Sennen Cove - a few hardy souls at the water's edge.

Sennen Cove Live Webcam

WWW.CAMSECURE.CO.UK

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Sennen Cove live webcam overlooks the beautiful Sennen Cove in Cornwall UK

 

Edited November 1, 2023 by bbtablet

[alexisj9]

7 minutes ago, James Maidstone said:

UkV still sticking to the Southern Tracking.  Very interested to see the 12z GFS, ECM, Arpege and Arome.  Icon 12z is alligning with a South Coast track

UKV looks yuk, has 90 mph gusts for a time in the SW, and in the SE. Should put near and over coasts. But 80 a mile or so in land.

Edited November 1, 2023 by alexisj9

[Skullzrulerz]

8 minutes ago, James Maidstone said:

UkV still sticking to the Southern Tracking.  Very interested to see the 12z GFS, ECM, Arpege and Arome.  Icon 12z is alligning with a South Coast track

ICON is out already?

[Harry's House]

45 minutes ago, stewfox said:

I've know about this storm for nearly a week as proposing to travel 100 miles including M25 etcThursday evening.  Hopefully the worse will have passed by then. 

Even if the worst of the weather is over by the time you travel, you may well be hindered by fallen debris such as trees been blown down.