Storm Ciarán

[snowrye]

3 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

Bit of a disappointment so far.

Apart from the low pressure...it's  been a bog standard low pressure system here.

And yet if ciaràn had tracked 100 miles northwards, you'd be getting hammered right now

[ANYWEATHER]

1 minute ago, bevo said:

They didn’t leave the decision for 1000s of parents in Hampshire to decide because they based the evidence on out of date data and shut all the schools!! If they had let us all decide this am, all of the kids in Hampshire would be going to school today. Make the decision at 6 / 7am not based on models that ran over 24hours before.

For most schools around here they are on half term anyway 

[weatherobsuk]

Peak District has now reached a minimum of 962mb, temps should be lowering through the day as the Easterly turns more Northerly.

[Roger J Smith]

I would advise waiting to see how part 2 of the storm affects southern counties before writing off Ciaran, but it was fortunate in terms of damage avoidance that it stayed as close to coast as it has done since scraping barely inland around 0500. It appears to be near Arundel at present. No sharp left turn in evidence yet. Even so, eastern Kent now seeing gusts over 60 kt. Could be a sting in the tail end of storm Ciaran, wait and see. Despite model depictions of 949-951 central pressure I never saw any reliable pressure below 953 so far. If you saw lower you may need to reset PWS to sea level. 

[ANYWEATHER]

8 minutes ago, Barbel said:

A cynic would say this sort of thing is Conditioning us to forcibly change our behaviour (ie staying at home to look after school kids rather than work) due to edicts related to a statistically unremarkable weather events. A precursor eventually to climate lockdowns I would suggest. Predicated by the usual Agenda 21/WEF powers and Climate Change movement and enforced by government and those in their pay.

They forget all the past weather disasters such as the American dust bowl which saw three million refugees move west to California. It’s certainly a nanny state here !

[WYorksWeather]

6 minutes ago, Barbel said:

A cynic would say this sort of thing is Conditioning us to forcibly change our behaviour (ie staying at home to look after school kids rather than work) due to edicts related to a statistically unremarkable weather events. A precursor eventually to climate lockdowns I would suggest. Predicated by the usual Agenda 21/WEF powers and Climate Change movement and enforced by government and those in their pay.

What a load of rubbish. Major incidents were declared based on the risk at the time - there's no use declaring one a few hours before the event as nobody has time to do anything! Yes it occasionally means the forecasters look a bit stupid, but it's better that than the alternative. The 1987 storm from what I've read saw no warning given for most people and it was widely downplayed. I know which I'd rather have.

As to the rest of the conspiracy-laden nonsense there's no climate lockdowns, and climate change is very much a real thing.

[alexisj9]

8 minutes ago, SnowBear said:

It's been pretty much a coast crawler up to now. Possibly the centre will shift a bit further inland and exit somewhere around North Kent or the Thames Estuary I think. 

Strongest winds in the SE quadrant as to be expected over Jersey due to forward motion of the system, back edge SW/NW quadrant is lively and may cause problems as it runs through. 

I do think the call for school closures was a bit haphazard, in the past any closures would have been announced (usually by radio and TV announcements) in the morning if damage was severe or had occurred or upon an early morning forecast assessment. 

In the age of the Internet that's even easier now with txt and email systems able to mass notify in short order. 

Yep, my kids school was meant to stay open, got a text this morning saying it's closed, so something has happened, or is happening I expect.

[weatherobsuk]

Not wanting to take anything away from those impacted in the Channel Isles, but the south coast has dodged a bullet with Ciaran considering what the models were forecasting 3 days ago. Had those model runs come to fruition we'd be talking millions effected with potential billions in damages & insurance payouts. 

[Fiona Robertson]

1 minute ago, bevo said:

They didn’t leave the decision for 1000s of parents in Hampshire to decide because they based the evidence on out of date data and shut all the schools!! If they had let us all decide this am, all of the kids in Hampshire would be going to school today. Make the decision at 6 / 7am not based on models that ran over 24hours before.

Think of what would have happened if things had gone the other way. Also, you're currently 2 hrs into an 11hr warning. There's always uncertainty about the weather forecasting. It's an attempt to predict the future based on mathematical models. Now, how local authrities make decisions based on these predictions is a completely different can of worms.

[WYorksWeather]

Latest isobars:

Latest wind gusts:

Most of southern England in the eye of the storm at the moment.

With that, I'm off to work now, will check in again later.

[IanT]

10 minutes ago, Barbel said:

A cynic would say this sort of thing is Conditioning us to forcibly change our behaviour (ie staying at home to look after school kids rather than work) due to edicts related to a statistically unremarkable weather events. A precursor eventually to climate lockdowns I would suggest. Predicated by the usual Agenda 21/WEF powers and Climate Change movement and enforced by government and those in their pay.

I’m pretty cynical, but the WEF conspiracy theory stuff is far too tin-foil-hat for me. It’s more likely that officially declaring a major incident unlocks central government funding of some sort for a period and allows local government employees to “work from home”. Sadly that is incentive enough.

[sunnijim]

Live Weather Top Twenty - Highs and Lows - Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

Joint record for the lowest air pressure in Brighton at least.

953mb and no filling yet.

Perhaps not as deep as some models predicted but still a record thus far South in November?

Can anyone advise..

[Frosty hollows]

In the eye here. Eerily calm and pressure has been 955mb for a while now. Plenty of rain for us- imby the winds are due to peak here early evening as Ciaran clears away. 

Keep safe everyone 

[Sidsnake]

52 minutes ago, wellington boot said:

How seriously do we we take this amber warning? Clearly it mentions threat to life from flying debris, which is different from a yellow warning.

Question is how strongly i advise pregnant wife not to go into work in Tunbridge Wells area. I could also drive her myself. Has anyone been out on roads or heard reports in this area?

Obviously the further NW you go the lesser the intensity, and we're further South. Just looking out of the window at the trees all around it looks pretty wild, but we're quite sheltered from S/SW winds so difficult to know how it will look out there.

The big question love is if things get worse how is she going to get back home.  Especially as she is pregnant, I know my husband would want me at home.

[Evening thunder]

I think the Met Office have done a very good job really. They identified the main threat areas a few days ago, and the amber warnings still reflect where has had/will get the strongest winds pretty well. Maybe some parts of the amber warnings may only have 'yellow' impacts, but it's a likelihood vs impact matrix, and the warning was not at the top of the likelihood scale. They issue the warnings and guidance, it's up to the relevant authorities to decide what to do with it.

They also have to make a call, they can't just say one thing to all the authorities then change it every model run. Yesterday there were still some options further north, and you can't risk cancelling warnings and risk the low centre taking the northern option in the models, even 20-50 miles further north would have been different.

Each shift, you can count the number of people that are actually responsible for issuing the warnings etc, and various additional briefings/tasks that come with severe weather, on one hand, and they still have to do everything else such as analysis charts, pages of internal/external guidance, modified fields, etc.

Of course many aspects of our media sensationalise and focus on the worst bits, so barely even mention that many inland southern areas won't see much of note, and that winds will fall light most of the night and early morning even here in Devon. A bit annoying because I expect lots of  'what was the fuss about', 'they got it wrong again', despite the fact that what's happened was the forecast for days (the low centre just a touch further south than the average of model runs from a few days ago).

[ChannelThunder]

Woken up to calm here, must be in the centre 

[Barbel]

5 minutes ago, IanT said:

I’m pretty cynical, but the WEF conspiracy theory stuff is far too tin-foil-hat for me. It’s more likely that officially declaring a major incident unlocks central government funding of some sort for a period and allows local government employees to “work from home”. Sadly that is incentive enough.

You’ve hit the nail on the head 

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, bevo said:

They didn’t leave the decision for 1000s of parents in Hampshire to decide because they based the evidence on out of date data and shut all the schools!! If they had let us all decide this am, all of the kids in Hampshire would be going to school today. Make the decision at 6 / 7am not based on models that ran over 24hours before.

Heaven forbid the authorities try to act on the basis of advice received. You'd be the first to scream blue murder if the unthinkable happened. Just because your own back yard is fine does not mean everywhere else is. Stop making yourself look silly and actually have some consideration for the wider picture.

[philglossop]

Well it's slightly chaotic down here.

Plymouth flooding everywhere.

A379 shut at Modbury landslip

Issues on A38 /A30/A383 , concerns on A386 between Bideford and Torrington.

Now issues in Lympstone,  Moretonhampstead.

No trains past Plymouth and most branch lines closed.

[winterfreak]

My old fashioned barometer inherited from my grandparents via my mum. Never seen it as low. No idea what the actual pressure is mind since I’m not sure how to read it correctly. Not particularly windy here. Bit of a disappointment thus far

[Alexis]

Considering the number of times over the last 6 months I've been drenched because of unforecasted rain, and systems 75 miles away from where they were forecasted, it makes sense to add a bit of distance to warning areas. 

[JR319]

It’s really calm and still here at the moment. Even had a few spots of sunshine coming through. 
 

You wouldn’t believe that there’s a big area of low pressure over you right now if you looked outside the window. 

[sheikhy]

The storm looks to have tracked much further south!!!no rain or wind here in leicester this morning!dry with a bit of sunshine for now!!

Good timing @JR319

Edited November 2, 2023 by sheikhy

[alexisj9]

My son had a lamp on, light has flickered four time since 7:30, not sure what the winds are doing though, because the flickering was concerning him, lamp is off now though, so can't keep updated.

[mountain shadow]

5 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

My old fashioned barometer inherited from my grandparents via my mum. Never seen it as low. No idea what the actual pressure is mind since I’m not sure how to read it correctly. Not particularly windy here. Bit of a disappointment thus far

I can't quite read it, but 28 inches of Mercury is 950mb.

 

I suspect this is around 948mb.