Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

[andy989]

10 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Absolutely WT!

More of a general response to IMBY posts in the mod thread that kept saying that this is the best start to winter since 2010, or the cold will be hard to shift. Not for here! 

Rain warnings expected as well..

Yep, many 2010’s were muttered, even a few 1963’s. 

Edited December 3, 2023 by andy989

[Gowon]

21 hours ago, StingJet said:

Ahh with you now ( I think)  Diamond Dust , only ever experienced this in the Alps when just popping out through the tops of the cloud base , amazing sight to behold 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io7L_tynCRQ&t=15s

Is that what it's called?  I experienced this phenomenon in Streatham, south London during 2009/2010 winter.

[andy989]

1 minute ago, Gowon said:

Is that what it's called?  I experienced this phenomenon in Streatham, south London during 2009/2010 winter.

I’ve never seen it in the uk but I’ve seen it many a time in the Arctic. I remember one time too it was -35 and my exhaled breath would climb into the air and you could see it turn into diamond dust 

[Gowon]

Just now, andy989 said:

I’ve never seen it in the uk but I’ve seen it many a time in the Arctic. I remember one time too it was -35 and my exhaled breath would climb into the air and you could see it turn into diamond dust 

I was walking to a job in an estate on a freezing morning with fog and all of a sudden the dust began to fall and cover the ground - there was no snow forecasted and nothing on the radar. I kinda of gathered it was the fog but didn't know the term for it.

[stewfox]

The "Glad you got some" said through gritted teeth today. 

Just 3 days of a frozen water butt ,this cold snap

 

 

[lottiekent]

29 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Manchester Winter Indices ranked 

2013-14: 7

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

2021-22: 28

2019-20: 29

1973-74: 30

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

2016-17: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41

1999-00: 42

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

2018-19: 45

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2011-12: 47

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

2022-23: 53

2005-06: 59

1979-80: 66

1996-97: 72

2000-01: 77

1993-94: 78

1983-84: 82

2014-15: 82

1982-83: 85

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

2017-18: 93

1986-87: 100

2012-13: 102

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

2020-21: 120

1990-91: 126

1995-96: 135

1984-85: 140

1976-77: 141

1981-82: 149

1985-86: 159

2009-10: 197

1978-79: 262

What is this representative of please? 

[alexisj9]

10 hours ago, SunSean said:

What a bizarre day over here in Essex! The giant patch of cloud that showed on the satellite had simply frozen in place all the way til sunset! Don't think I've ever seen a cloudbank not move direction for the whole day. We were shrouded in thick freezing fog all day too which had a fun atmosphere to be fair! Perhaps that was the "cloudbank" showing on the satellite?

It was fog, and it was in a high, classic winter weather, freezing fog, temps below freezing 

[Weather-history]

 

3 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

What is this representative of please? 

An equation I devised to measure the "wintriness" of a winter.

10 x [(the number of days with lying snow)+(number of days with falling sleet/snow)+(number of days where the temperature has been at below 0C)] divided by the mean maximum temperature.

 

The higher the value, the "more wintry" the winter  was. 

Edited December 3, 2023 by Weather-history
.

[andy989]

I was very suprised to have rain last night. I usually do very well given my location within the highest mountains of Wales and my elevation. Rain all night. But I’m even more suprised that it’s frozen outside. I must have been just a little too close the the milder air and it seems the cold air has sunk south again. It’s like an ice rink out there and the sky is heavy with snow clouds. Snow line is down to about 1400ft. Perhaps tonight’s low will give me another chance. 

[alexisj9]

9 hours ago, sunnijim said:

No met office warnings of ice down here but a major road traffic accident has just taken place on the outskirts of Brighton  due to  black ice forming after a short spell of rain and sleet past through 

Washed the grit off and the carriageway iced over and the result looks awful,multiple veichles involved 

Ice rain all over the SE corner last night. With those first showers.

[knocker]

Just had a quick scamper through the Mod. thread and I know not why but “Other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?” flashed into my mind. 

[lottiekent]

33 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Ice rain all over the SE corner last night. With those first showers.

I saw both lanes of the M20 were shut because of accidents between Folkestone and Lympne just after the freezing rain fell, hopefully no one was injured.

 

[alexisj9]

4 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

I saw both lanes of the M20 were shut because of accidents between Folkestone and Lympne just after the freezing rain fell, hopefully no one was injured.

 

The person that dropped me home, lives in Folkestone, he text me to let me know he got home safe, guess this was why. He knows I'm a weather geek and would have known about the freezing rain 

Edited December 3, 2023 by alexisj9

[Summer8906]

10 hours ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

Weird that last Jan/Feb provided the most dry settled spell of the entire year. Well in Dudley anyway. Feb was loads better than March and April which were wet and cold. My post was to offer frustration that when you want high pressure in spring/sumner/early autumn (me anyway) to provide warm and sunshine it goes AWOL. 

Ah ok, fair enough, sorry if I misunderstood.

[Summer8906]

Part model commentary, part moan, so best here I guess.

"Normal for 2023" resumes today: dull, wet, Atlantic-dominated, and temperatures "wrong" for the season (i.e. mild in winter, cool in summer). Tomorrow looks like an atrocious day, Tuesday perhaps the only decent day of the week and then the rest of the week and next weekend again horrendously wet and dull.

(Has this breakdown arrived earlier than expected? I'm sure at one point it was supposed to be cold and dry until Tuesday).

However, the GFS 00z is less dire than some of last night's runs in that it brings blocking in starting the week of the 11th. The blocking could produce anything from unusually mild southerlies to cold easterlies, but whatever happens it'll be a break from the endless Atlantic lows.

On the other hand the lows are still quite active and threaten to come in again at one or two points, though they fail on this particular run.

I would definitely take the 00z from the 11th onwards, indeed the mild southerlies followed by cold easterlies makes for an interesting mix of weather while keeping the Atlantic shut out for most of the time.

The pattern looks like it could pull up some unseasonably mild weather for south-east Europe. Thessaloniki around 15C for that week, for example, Athens around 19C, and Rome around 16C.

So this month could now, I guess, be anything from interestingly blocked to atrociously wet and dull.

Edited December 3, 2023 by Summer8906

[Freeze]

'The cold is hard to shift',  is all you read in the mod thread, yet it pushed the cold air aside with ease last night in about an hour a 8c temp rise, that's the cold snap over.

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

 

An equation I devised to measure the "wintriness" of a winter.

10 x [(the number of days with lying snow)+(number of days with falling sleet/snow)+(number of days where the temperature has been at below 0C)] divided by the mean maximum temperature.

 

The higher the value, the "more wintry" the winter  was. 

Interesting; surprised 19/20 doesn't have a lower score though.

[swfc]

Morning. We have a good covering of snow here atm and very cold. My only moan would my gas meter spinning around like a hamster wheel. Jeez what a rip off

[Summer8906]

19 minutes ago, Freeze said:

'The cold is hard to shift',  is all you read in the mod thread, yet it pushed the cold air aside with ease last night in about an hour a 8c temp rise, that's the cold snap over.

It's infuriating that even when it's very cold before precipitation, it always seems to turn milder just *before* the precipitation and it only falls as rain.

We need to avoid winds from a southerly direction in advance of a potential snow-producing front, as they just suck in mild maritime air. For this reason, fronts from any westerly point (hence winds with a southerly component) almost always fail to produce snow, even if it's very cold beforehand. Best chance is from fronts which stay out in the channel (keeping us in easterlies; e.g. 1 Dec 2010, 18 Jan 2013, 31 Jan 2019),  polar lows from the north (Jan and Dec 2010), or troughs from the east (sadly rare; Feb 1991 or early Feb 2009).

The "settling snow then milder" setup is very rare here nowadays for that reason. Last time we had a decent snow cover which then thawed in milder air behind the snow-producing front was, I believe, December 1997, perhaps in a time less afflicted by climate change. This kind of thing did happen a few times in the 80s, though.

Edited December 3, 2023 by Summer8906

[SollyOlly]

So, a very decent cold spell coming to an end later this week...but a very good start. Let's hope it's not the only one of the winter! Albeit that the snow event was patchy and a bit inconsistent, was this a case of the old classic "get the cold in first..."?

[Summer8906]

3 minutes ago, SollyOlly said:

So, a very decent cold spell coming to an end later this week...but a very good start. Let's hope it's not the only one of the winter! Albeit that the snow event was patchy and a bit inconsistent, was this a case of the old classic "get the cold in first..."?

Mind you it's already ended for some of us!

Wet, dull, southwesterly winds and not cold here.

That said, as I said above let's hope something like the GFS 00z happens. This month seems very much a knife-edge between potentially great and potentially awful.

Edited December 3, 2023 by Summer8906

[mountain shadow]

It's been a complete failure snow wise for the whole island of Ireland this cold spell.

Some nice frosts but not much else.

[SLEETY]

15 minutes ago, Freeze said:

'The cold is hard to shift',  is all you read in the mod thread, yet it pushed the cold air aside with ease last night in about an hour a 8c temp rise, that's the cold snap over.

Always does on the coast when the wind switches onshore, enjoyed the cold spell here, even ice on the beach, that doesn't happen often. 

Let's hope this isn't the end of the cold weather can't stand another winter of wind and rain and mild. 

[alexisj9]

17 minutes ago, Freeze said:

'The cold is hard to shift',  is all you read in the mod thread, yet it pushed the cold air aside with ease last night in about an hour a 8c temp rise, that's the cold snap over.

The are on about the entrenched cold in the scandi area, which will help us, stay on the colder side of things with any east north east winds. At the minute that does look like holding, along with our cold midland northwards for now, with perhaps transient stuff further south as lows move east.

[SunnyG]

22 minutes ago, Freeze said:

'The cold is hard to shift',  is all you read in the mod thread, yet it pushed the cold air aside with ease last night in about an hour a 8c temp rise, that's the cold snap over.

North London hasn't seen any snow at all and now it's back to mild and rainy. Very glad it's snowed elsewhere, hopefully where the coldies are