Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

[Weatherman_93]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

From the met office blog issued today for later next week and leading up to Christmas.

"At this stage, there is very little sign of any widespread or severe cold and wintry weather.”

Mild week before Christmas

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

As we go through the rest of this week the jet stream will shift further north allowing high pressure to build.

 

Over in the 'mad' thread they will have you believe that cold weather is on the way and there is reason to get excited 

[alexisj9]

18 hours ago, al78 said:

After more delays on the trains this evening I found my cycle route home that normally goes over the river was now in the river. I didn't think there had been that much rain today but Horsham may have got hammered with more frequent heavy rain than London.

 

There was a big tail of showers with heavy bursts, though that storm in London was heavy, perhaps Thame big drainage system works better than people thought.

[cheeky_monkey]

51 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

                                                                                                                                           Sunniest places (hours per year)

 Least sunny(hours)Sunniest(hours)

1Bjørnøya (Svalbard, Norway)595.0                                                                              Yuma (USA)4015.3

2Macquarie Island (Australia)806.5                                                                                 Phoenix (USA)3871.6

3Tórshavn (Faroe Islands)841.0                                                                                       Aswan (Egypt)3862.8

4Ostrov Vize (Arctic Russia)914.0                                                                                   Las Vegas (USA)3825.3

5Rio Negro (Brazil)967.9                                                                                                     Tuscon (USA)3806.0

Edmonton gets 321 sunny days per year and is the second sunniest city in Canada just behind Calgary.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

Beautiful winter's day here. 

Love this colour of sky. If you didn't the know the time, it could be 9am, Midday, or 3pm - how wonderful!

So rare and unusual in Britain to have this sort of weather!

Edited December 13, 2023 by In Absence of True Seasons

[Weather Enthusiast91]

On 12/12/2023 at 08:50, Alderc 2.0 said:

Loud thunder and for the first time in 45years I’ve got a storm on my birthday! 

Happy belated birthday. Though I must admit, for some reason I assumed you were in your 20s or 30s.

[danm]

Flew into Lapland this afternoon, not as cold as originally forecast, “only” about -10c to -12c at the moment.

[raz.org.rain]

1 hour ago, Weatherman_93 said:

Over in the 'mad' thread they will have you believe that cold weather is on the way and there is reason to get excited 

Hopecasting

 

Meanwhile, some more good news. The days have reached their minimum, they'll soon be getting longer.

 

[Guest]

Looking forward to a few days of mild temperatures and mainly dry conditions before the cold, wet and windy weather returns towards Christmas

[East Lancs Rain]

It’s gonna be mild this weekend, it will be very dull though unfortunately. 

[DOdo]

If I were a betting man which I am I would put a tenner on a White Christmas Ladbrokes 8/1

3 hours ago, danm said:

Flew into Lapland this afternoon, not as cold as originally forecast, “only” about -10c to -12c at the moment.

-!0 is the average Temperature this time of year

[cheeky_monkey]

12 minutes ago, DOdo said:

 

-!0 is the average Temperature this time of year

almost the same as here in Edmonton..Edmonton is drier and much sunnier 

[Chasbrown]

4 minutes ago, LRD said:

No idea. But it's a model. By the respected ECM. And this is the MOD thread so thought I'd mention it

Met Office mention mid January cold too so I'm all ears!

[johncam]

25 minutes ago, Chasbrown said:

Met Office mention mid January cold too so I'm all ears!

Aye they do , but if you remember last third of Dec was going to be cold then New year , now mid January 

[Chasbrown]

5 minutes ago, johncam said:

Aye they do , but if you remember last third of Dec was going to be cold then New year , now mid January 

Got to be right sooner or later then! But joking aside things feel different this time. 

[LRD]

7 minutes ago, johncam said:

Aye they do , but if you remember last third of Dec was going to be cold then New year , now mid January 

They never favoured cold. They said (and are still saying) there's a chance but wet weather will probably win out. They have not actually forecast cold. just talking about probabilities. Even in January they say it's only a low likelihood... at this point in time anyway

[johncam]

3 minutes ago, LRD said:

They never favoured cold. They said (and are still saying) there's a chance but wet weather will probably win out. They have not actually forecast cold. just talking about probabilities. Even in January they say it's only a low likelihood... at this point in time anyway

Ano , and this will go on till winters over knowing our luck

[Big Gally]

1 minute ago, LRD said:

They never favoured cold. They said (and are still saying) there's a chance but wet weather will probably win out. They have not actually forecast cold. just talking about probabilities. Even in January they say it's only a low likelihood... at this point in time anyway

I think it’s an actual upgrade in terms of their wording. The fact they are still seeing a colder spell into January. Much better winter than recent winters. 

[LRD]

Just now, johncam said:

Ano , and this will go on till winters over knowing our luck

Maybe you should take a break from this hobby mate - if it's causing you to be down about it

[johncam]

9 minutes ago, Chasbrown said:

Got to be right sooner or later then! But joking aside things feel different this time. 

I hope your right as I am running out of winters being an old git

[johncam]

Just now, LRD said:

Maybe you should take a break from this hobby mate - if it's causing you to be down about it

See below 

[LRD]

1 minute ago, Big Gally said:

I think it’s an actual upgrade in terms of their wording. The fact they are still seeing a colder spell into January. Much better winter than recent winters. 

It is an upgrade but they are still not favouring it. Some see the word 'cold' in their forecasts and seem to automatically think that's the form horse. It isn't. Yet. It will firm up nearer the time if signs are still there as we move into 2024, of course

[LRD]

1 minute ago, stodge said:

In all fairness, they rarely do. We know a lot of pieces need to fall just right for a prolonged and memorable cold spell (as distinct from brief transient cold with snow on hills).

The models are suggesting a cold or at least chilly spell close to Christmas as the trough drops into Scandinavia (945MB over Sweden anyone?) and you'd think any north or north westerly in December is going to deliver to high ground and at times lower ground in the north.

The brief period of negative alignment caused by the trough dropping SE looks set to be brief as the HP builds back into Iberia and re-setting the alignment to positive. 

There are some "interesting" signs in the background signals and a number of LRF suggested a backloaded winter so we could be looking well into January or even February but we're barely one third of the way into the game - a long way to go.

Exactly. And they're not now. Some put words into their mouths though

[Ben00]

Hi I am new here. Have been following the forum for a while now and I need some advice! 

I am planning on heading to Wengen in Switzerland around 18-23 (next week). I am hoping for lots of snow but based on current forecasts I am unsure on whether I should still go. Ideally I need to make my mind up asap so I was wondering if anyone more experienced on here, or who knows the area, would be able to give their verdict? 

Thank you! 

Ben

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 minutes ago, Ben00 said:

Hi I am new here. Have been following the forum for a while now and I need some advice! 

I am planning on heading to Wengen in Switzerland around 18-23 (next week). I am hoping for lots of snow but based on current forecasts I am unsure on whether I should still go. Ideally I need to make my mind up asap so I was wondering if anyone more experienced on here, or who knows the area, would be able to give their verdict? 

Thank you! 

Ben

@carinthianmay do

[danm]

1 hour ago, DOdo said:

If I were a betting man which I am I would put a tenner on a White Christmas Ladbrokes 8/1

-!0 is the average Temperature this time of year

Yes true, at one point it was looking like it could have been -20c, but it’s currently -10c to -15c for the next day or so before warming up to about -5c by the weekend.