Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

[CharlieBear9]

2 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

Some people on the MOD thread are so effing negative.

And some on here like to cheer them on.

[MP-R]

32 minutes ago, Catbrainz said:

This year despite having a high CET record hasn't felt that warm overall. It seems more down to lack of any cool/cold rather than heat. 2023 is one of the worse years ever weatherwise for here, only 2012 and 2015 were worse years that I recall. It does show how climate change is affecting climates though as for example July despite being a  rainfest with endless cyclonic NWlys managed to somehow scrape a average CET, looking at synoptics for July 2023 I would have guessed a CET in the 14s not 16.1. Heres my rating of this year overall

Jan= 5/10 (Awful first half, great 2nd half) 
Feb= 7.5/10 (Striked me as sunny and dry for Feb, no higher due to lack of wintery weather) 
Mar= 0/10 (Now a truly foul month) 
Apr= 4/10 (A lil on the meh side with no real heat or exciting weather) 
May= 7/10 (First half was pretty average, 2nd half amazing) 
Jun= 10/10 (A true classic June) 
Jul= 1.5/10 (Saved from a 0 down to some thundery interest and a few warm sunny days) 
Aug= 3.5/10 (More meh than truly poor,some scattered nice days but a lot of gloomy meh days)
Sept= 6.5/10 (First half was hot and sunny, 2nd half was mixed) 
Oct= 5.5/10 (Pretty average)
Nov= 5/10 (Again pretty bog standard)
Dec= 2/10 (Zonal rainfest no lower down to the cold snap early on brining some excitement) 
 

Amazing what high minima can do for the CET.

July’s a weird one. It rarely felt cool but also rarely warm, just humid a lot of the time. Needless to say, maxima were below par.

[andy989]

MAD thread living up to its nickname tonight. Times like this I wish for the old MOD thread where it was almost zero tolerance. Back then you’d be afraid to post in there if you weren’t clued up on model interpretation. Certainly kept the riff raff out. 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

34 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Sorry!

[Ms Rock & Blues]

So, the near certain cold that was coming very soon now isn't. Why oh why do I allow myself to get excited for snow? 

[Wold Topper]

24 minutes ago, andy989 said:

MAD thread living up to its nickname tonight. Times like this I wish for the old MOD thread where it was almost zero tolerance. Back then you’d be afraid to post in there if you weren’t clued up on model interpretation. Certainly kept the riff raff out. 

Gotta keep the 'traffic' (post's) flowing tho, all about the 'likes' .....

[The Enforcer]

1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The only consolation will be the needed dry weather!

Don't bank on it. There was a ridge of High Pressure about a week before Xmas. Outcome? Rain.

[The Enforcer]

9 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

It's not unusually wet for mid Winter. Nor is it very stormy despite all the hype. Indeed even though we are flying through storm names we've had little interest in what's being thrown 

It's not the overall amount of rain that's the issue, it's the incessantness of it. No respite at all.

1. Fronts don't clear properly, leaving 'baggage' behind.

2. Troughs appear in gaps between fronts at T+0

3. Regardless of the direction of the flow, the outcome is the same: rain. Even high pressure brought rain when there were no trapped fronts and nothing on the radar.

4. Virtually no sun, any breaks in the cloudcover always overnight, so everything stays waterlogged and never dries out.

 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

33 minutes ago, Ms Rock & Blues said:

So, the near certain cold that was coming very soon now isn't. Why oh why do I allow myself to get excited for snow? 

Spend a long time on this board you will soon learn its all talk and no show! Don't get major interested until it's within 5 days and excited when within 2 days

[Ms Rock & Blues]

1 minute ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Spend a long time on this board you will soon learn its all talk and no show! Don't get major interested until it's within 5 days and excited when within 2 days

The sad thing is I have been on this for years. .  ..   

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 minute ago, Ms Rock & Blues said:

The sad thing is I have been on this for years. .  ..   

Oh well in that case ... Smacked bottom for you ...

[raz.org.rain]

5 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Spend a long time on this board you will soon learn its all talk and no show! Don't get major interested until it's within 5 days and excited when within 2 days

I'm sure it'll show up eventually, just in spring.

[The Enforcer]

26 minutes ago, MJB said:

Control is shaping up nicely 

There's a Blackadder quote that can be paraphrased for every situation: "E-E-Exactly! And that is what so brilliant about it! We will catch the watchful MOD thread totally off guard! Doing precisely what we have done eighteen times before [show a cold spell at T+some high number only for it to disappear by T+120] is exactly the last thing they’ll expect us to do this time!"

[The Enforcer]

 

1 minute ago, The Enforcer said:

There's a Blackadder quote that can be paraphrased for every situation.

10 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Oh well in that case ... Smacked bottom for you ...

"And win the greatest victory since the Winchester flower-arranging team beat Harrow by twelve sore bottoms to one!"

[*Stormforce~beka*]

12 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

I'm sure it'll show up eventually, just in spring.

Then it can F orfff again

4 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

 

"And win the greatest victory since the Winchester flower-arranging team beat Harrow by twelve sore bottoms to one!"

LOL! You nutter

[Guest]

18z pretty much bang on with what I was expecting in the HP to slip South and leave us with a barmy SW'ly, and is exactly what I predicted in my previous post.

Interpretation of the models is easier when you're not biased or so emotionally attached to seeing cold. 

Edited December 30, 2023 by DCee

[In Absence of True Seasons]

53 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Spend a long time on this board you will soon learn its all talk and no show! Don't get major interested until it's within 5 days and excited when within 2 days

I get excited when it's on the day and I open the curtains and the weather outside corroborates the forecast on my phone  

1 hour ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Sorry!

I'll let you have that one... As it's a Friday 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 minute ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

I get excited when it's on the day and I open the curtains and the weather outside corroborates the forecast on my phone  

Whatta miricle!

[TheOgre]

2 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Spend a long time on this board you will soon learn its all talk and no show! Don't get major interested until it's within 5 days and excited when within 2 days

This! For the first time since I’ve been on this site (since 2020) I’m just not bothered about looking on the MOD thread for this reason. Any sign of cold is a historic deep freeze and it ends up as two frosts and perhaps a fleeting flurry.

[Atleastitwillbemild]

On 28/12/2023 at 11:34, CryoraptorA303 said:

Considering the rain started in September 2022 and hasn't really stopped all year bar from February, June and two weeks in September, I imagine we balanced the deficit some time ago.

I'm not sure 2024 will be abnormally dry but it would be absolutely shocking to see it be comparably as wet as this year.

All bets are off now. We're heading into unchartered territory. By next Christmas we might just be a group of small islands above France visited only by camera crews making documentaries about the "lost peoples of the north"

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 pants GFS runs on the bounce, at least looks like drying up for a few days, although mild, then 2nd week around 14th, could turn exceptionally mild but back to normal with rain

I'd much rather have mild/dry than 17 degrees and wet

[Summer8906]

10 hours ago, Catbrainz said:

This year despite having a high CET record hasn't felt that warm overall. It seems more down to lack of any cool/cold rather than heat. 2023 is one of the worse years ever weatherwise for here, only 2012 and 2015 were worse years that I recall. It does show how climate change is affecting climates though as for example July despite being a  rainfest with endless cyclonic NWlys managed to somehow scrape a average CET, looking at synoptics for July 2023 I would have guessed a CET in the 14s not 16.1. Heres my rating of this year overall
 

I guess the thing about 2023 is that, aside from that 6 week period in May and June when it became easterly, the year has been extraordinarily anomalously southwesterly. I wonder if it has been the most anomalously southwesterly year on record?

Also wonder whether some parts of the country have had their dullest year on record - but perhaps the 6 week spell of near-constant sunshine in May/June will have prevented that from happening.

Exceedingly dull and damp, mild autumn and winter but cool-by-day summer. Warm nights all year.

I just hope this isn't what climate change has sentenced us to, year after year after year of 2023-style conditions.

The worst weather year of my lifetime by a country mile. 6 good weeks in late Jan/Feb, 6 good weeks in May/June, one good week in September and 39 weeks of so-so to poor.

And in other parts of the world, excessive heat and devastating wildfires. A year to forget and one which I hope will not be repeated anytime soon.

Whatever, it's certainly a travesty that this vile, atrocious weather year breaks the record for warmest CET on record. Why not 1989, 1990, 1995, 2003 or 2006?

 

Edited December 30, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

Whatever happens after that, it looks like appalling synoptics again for New Year's Eve and Day, and the whole of next week by the looks of it.

New Year always seems to start on a low, yet another atrocious New Years Day synoptically by the looks of it.

It's staggering how often New Year's Day features poor weather. Going back to 1979, as well as the upcoming one we had poor weather (mild, damp and unsettled southwesterlies) in 2023, 2022, 2020, 2018, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2012, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2001, 1999, 1998, 1994, 1991, 1990, 1988, 1987, 1986, 1984, 1983 and even 1982. That's 26 years in that period, such a shame that the New Year always seems to come in on such a dismal note. Christmas Day I think does better, I do remember quite a few dry and/or coldish Christmas Days. Decent New Year's Days, though, are very few and far between, even if you use quite a liberal definition of "decent" (dry, cloudy and calm with indifferent temps).

And in the majority of those years (2003, 1987 and 1982 being the only real exceptions) the majority of the first week of January was a write-off too. You also have to add 1996 in which New Year was dull but quiet but full on zonality arrived on the 3rd, so another year with a poor start to January.

Finally why are November-like temps into the low double figures being described as "normal" for the London/SE forecast on the Met Office next week? Certainly not normal for early Jan.

I'm just glad I'm out of the country right now and escaping yet another dismal New Year! Just hope the dull and wet conditions of the first week don't persist for too long and 2024 is better than 2023.

Edited December 30, 2023 by Summer8906

[I remember Atlantic 252]

'97 was the best here! light snow all day on top of existing snow from 30-31Dec

[Atleastitwillbemild]

10 hours ago, Relativistic said:

Some people on the MOD thread are so effing negative.

Because there are too many people on there that have learned absolutely nothing from years and years of weather watching. I can only assume they are either very young with not enough experience of disappointment, or have some very deep denial about climate change. I have been watching the weather for over 20 years and I have seen literally hundreds of FI, extended rage winter wonderland promises come to absolutely nothing. Watching people who presumably, might have been doing the same, STILL get wide eyed and gasp with with joy at what the extended range runs are showing like children in an advert for Disneyland is just extraordinary. Its beyond me why people bother to even look at it. "Oh but the trend is your friend!"
Christ. Pretty toxic friend.  Who needs enemies?
 

The incredible mental gymnastics people do to avoid confronting the reality that we have a s**t climate, AGW is making it 10x worse and that is now on a runaway course into the abyss with no way of stopping it. I assume the negativity comes from the fact that there are people with 20 years and more experience of weather watching who are still looking at the snowmageddon - raging easterly - projected in the 384 range of GFS charts posting "how exciting! I can't wait to curl up by little homebase installed wood burner and sip cocoa by the fire, while the Christmas-card-pretty snow scene outside makes me feel all snuggly and cosy and ... oh.... those charts aren't there this morning... I .. I ...don't understand...where did they go?" 

OH MY GOD

Edited December 30, 2023 by Atleastitwillbemild