Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

[Summer8906]

13 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

'97 was the best here! light snow all day on top of existing snow from 30-31Dec

The best New Year's Days I remember were:

1979 - persistent falling snow

1980 - cold, frosty, sunny

1985 - cold, frosty, sunny

1995 - cold with a northerly, very bright, one snow shower. A brief break in a generally poor winter allowing us to enjoy a decent start to the year

1997 - some snow on ground, very cold

2002 - cold, frosty, sunny

2010 - cold, frosty, sunny

Others that were half-decent include:

1989 - quiet, cloudy, anticyclonic, slightly cold (colder than typical for that winter)

1993 - misty, frosty

2000 - quiet, cloudy, anticyclonic

2009 - quiet, cloudy, anticyclonic

2011 - quiet, cloudy, anticyclonic

2019 - quiet, anticyclonic, some sun, mostly cloudy

I think 1981 and 1992 were "OK" too, though can't remember them that well.

Lastly in 2017, while it was wet it was at least calm and was "cold rain" so at least was seasonal, also winds were N-ly in advance of a frosty high moving in from the 2nd.

But the fact that those New Year's Days stand out shows you how rare even half-decent New Year's Days are!

 

Edited December 30, 2023 by Summer8906

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2001 and 2021 snow on ground but the 'thaw' day both years

[Summer8906]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

2001 and 2021 snow on ground but the 'thaw' day both years

The "thaw" day was Dec 31 2000 where I was, New Years Day 2001 just drab damp southwesterlies. It did improve that year from the 6th though.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

The "thaw" day was Dec 31 2000 where I was, New Years Day 2001 just drab damp southwesterlies. It did improve that year from the 6th though.

my '252' days! the next year 2002 was -10 mornings but no snaw

[JoeShmoe]

7 hours ago, TheOgre said:

This! For the first time since I’ve been on this site (since 2020) I’m just not bothered about looking on the MOD thread for this reason. Any sign of cold is a historic deep freeze and it ends up as two frosts and perhaps a fleeting flurry.

yep, waiting for the first reference to 87 or 63 or 2010 in a one model cold spell shown at T+240 ! you know its coming !

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, JoeShmoe said:

yep, waiting for the first reference to 87 or 63 or 2010 in a one model cold spell shown at T+240 ! you know its coming !

there was a Jan '47 chart posted

[cobbett]

The golden rule of commenting on model runs - below is a 'trend setter', if op was at top of the pack its 'for the bin'

 

 

Edited December 30, 2023 by cobbett

[stewfox]

Drop of in temps in Moscow next few days is amazing. I'll have some of that beast from the East

[JoeShmoe]

To add to the futility of it all, just been out and its snowing here, and settling, albeit very light and i dont remember that being forecast (not here anyway)

[In Absence of True Seasons]

1 hour ago, stewfox said:

Drop of in temps in Moscow next few days is amazing. I'll have some of that beast from the East

That is quite something! 

As interesting as it looks though, the UK's infrastructure would quite literally grind to a halt if such weather landed here, so in that respect, I'm glad it's not going to lol.

I mean, by this point I'd be quite happy with a sunny day of 0-5c and a frost. 

[Summer8906]

21 hours ago, Freeze said:

Actually quite a nice day down here, blue skies, some clouds 12c but windy.

You must have got very lucky I guess...

Edited December 30, 2023 by Summer8906

[In Absence of True Seasons]

13 hours ago, Catbrainz said:

This year despite having a high CET record hasn't felt that warm overall. It seems more down to lack of any cool/cold rather than heat. 2023 is one of the worse years ever weatherwise for here, only 2012 and 2015 were worse years that I recall. It does show how climate change is affecting climates though as for example July despite being a  rainfest with endless cyclonic NWlys managed to somehow scrape a average CET, looking at synoptics for July 2023 I would have guessed a CET in the 14s not 16.1. Heres my rating of this year overall
 

Mild nighttime temps and high minimas, alongside a true absence of any actual cold weather, yes. Because outside of the June and September spells, there really wasn't any true heat or proper warmth to speak of.

An interesting year for sure, but not in a particularly pleasant way. Most people didn't have much of what they wanted, regardless of their preference. Unless of course your preference is overcast and/or wet weather in the 10-17c temperature range lol.

[Relativistic]

3 hours ago, Atleastitwillbemild said:

Because there are too many people on there that have learned absolutely nothing from years and years of weather watching. I can only assume they are either very young with not enough experience of disappointment, or have some very deep denial about climate change. I have been watching the weather for over 20 years and I have seen literally hundreds of FI, extended rage winter wonderland promises come to absolutely nothing. Watching people who presumably, might have been doing the same, STILL get wide eyed and gasp with with joy at what the extended range runs are showing like children in an advert for Disneyland is just extraordinary. Its beyond me why people bother to even look at it. "Oh but the trend is your friend!"
Christ. Pretty toxic friend.  Who needs enemies?
 

The incredible mental gymnastics people do to avoid confronting the reality that we have a s**t climate, AGW is making it 10x worse and that is now on a runaway course into the abyss with no way of stopping it. I assume the negativity comes from the fact that there are people with 20 years and more experience of weather watching who are still looking at the snowmageddon - raging easterly - projected in the 384 range of GFS charts posting "how exciting! I can't wait to curl up by little homebase installed wood burner and sip cocoa by the fire, while the Christmas-card-pretty snow scene outside makes me feel all snuggly and cosy and ... oh.... those charts aren't there this morning... I .. I ...don't understand...where did they go?" 

OH MY GOD

I agree with you, believe me. I think the MOD thread is laughable at times and that people make the same mistakes over and over is very stupid, frankly.

The difference is, though, that this time there's 20 years or more of teleconnective science which is pointing towards something. This isn't just the usual 'there's something showing at day 12 despite the fact that most large-scale drivers aren't indicative of such', and to completely dismiss the current situation is to ignore the incredibly hard work of some of the world's most knowledgeable and respected meteorologists.

I'm not saying a cold spell is nailed on, but I think the current negativity from a few is unwarranted and too hasty a dismissal of the current known science.

Edited December 30, 2023 by Relativistic
Amended wording

[Summer8906]

If 2023 was anything, it was an exaggerated stereotype of oceanic climates. A year when the whole UK perhaps got what is usually reserved for oceanic climates on steroids, such as those experienced on the west coasts of GB and Ireland or south-western Norway.

Edited December 30, 2023 by Summer8906

[BarometerCat]

Note- not entirely serious! 

some models showing colder possibilities around 7th Jan, just colder - nothing dramatic, might see some ice on windscreens or the cat might stay in overnight and that level of excitement from IMBY perspective

GFS 6z 

ECM 0z

Watch this dissolve into far less colder, wet, messy and dull outputs as we count down to the 7th!    (rain, wind etc..)

 

Edited December 30, 2023 by B-C

[Atleastitwillbemild]

29 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

I agree with you, believe me. I think the MOD thread is laughable at times and that people make the same mistakes over and over is very stupid, frankly.

The difference is, though, that this time there's 20 years or more of teleconnective science which is pointing towards something. This isn't just the usual 'there's something showing at day 12 despite the fact that most large-scale drivers aren't indicative of such', and to completely dismiss the current situation is to ignore the incredibly hard work of some of the world's most knowledgeable and respected meteorologists.

I'm not saying a cold spell is nailed on, but I think the current negativity from a few is unwarranted and too hasty a dismissal of the current known science.

Hey look I mean, we do hit the jackpot sometimes. And I admire all the hard work that goes into trying to crack the code of weather forecasting but for me, just personally, if it isn't in the 96 hour time frame; not buying it. That's just how I look at it now. I've seen some incredible developments in meteological understanding in my lifetime and its all very impressive and yet, somehow, despite it all, no-one has been able to provide any accuracy in what the weather is going to do in a week's time. All the anomaly charts, all the background drivers, all the atmospheric analysis and the weather still seems to outsmart us all.

Hoping for all our sake, even those struggling to pay bills, that there is something cold in store for us next month because I think seeing a cold sunny day is much more important for people's mental health at the moment than saving a few quid on heating with all the warm rain that still ends up cold enough to need the heating on anyway.

Edited December 30, 2023 by Atleastitwillbemild

[marky810]

16 hours ago, Metwatch said:

 

Speaking of high minima, looks like this year could be the warmest one in the CET 

Yes but 1878 is fairly recent in the history of the earth.

[Buzz]

This weather is positively pustulant.

[baddie]

We are so bored of this awful weather we are having so lately. I can look at this month as "A December version of March 2023", and its nothing more than that. Even July 2023 and the second half of October 2023 looks lovely compared to this bullcrap

Please give us some cold and snow in January, and some spring-like conditions in February and March, and i emphasise, please, give us a lovely April

Edited December 30, 2023 by baddie

[Sun Chaser]

5 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

'97 was the best here! light snow all day on top of existing snow from 30-31Dec

New Year's Day 2022 and 2021 were both good for opposing reasons. Where I was 2022 was 15c, dry and with sunny spells(!!) - very springlike but I think we got quite lucky. While 2021 began with snow on the ground and ushered in a 10 day cold spell which I think is quite overlooked now!

[In Absence of True Seasons]

2 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

A year when the whole UK perhaps got what is usually reserved for oceanic climates on steroids, such as those experienced on the west coasts of GB and Ireland or south-western Norway

Indeed. Very much like living in Bergen for most of the year. 

Except obviously winter where we get "Bergen in October" and Bergen gets...

 

[East Lancs Rain]

15 hours ago, MP-R said:

Amazing what high minima can do for the CET.

July’s a weird one. It rarely felt cool but also rarely warm, just humid a lot of the time. Needless to say, maxima were below par.

It was a pretty cool month here, with most days being mostly cloudy and below 20°C, with lots of rain as well. High humidity does help to make it feel a bit warmer though. A 15C damp and drizzly night with 100% humidity feels quite a bit warmer than a 15C dry and clear night with 70% humidity for some reason. It wasn’t quite as cool as July 2020 though, which was exceptionally cool here (didn’t even reach 20C until the final two days!) and had to put the heating on one day when it was only about 12C and raining one day. That was truly a shocker of a month, although July 2023 wasn’t much better. It was a bit warmer but still very cloudy and very wet.

14 hours ago, Ms Rock & Blues said:

So, the near certain cold that was coming very soon now isn't. Why oh why do I allow myself to get excited for snow? 

Best not to trust the weather models I find. Just use the CFS model (can’t forecast snow). Both the weekly and monkey forecasts. It nearly always forecasts mild weather but is usually correct and at least you won’t be disappointed! 

 

5 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Whatever happens after that, it looks like appalling synoptics again for New Year's Eve and Day, and the whole of next week by the looks of it.

New Year always seems to start on a low, yet another atrocious New Years Day synoptically by the looks of it.

It's staggering how often New Year's Day features poor weather. Going back to 1979, as well as the upcoming one we had poor weather (mild, damp and unsettled southwesterlies) in 2023, 2022, 2020, 2018, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2012, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2001, 1999, 1998, 1994, 1991, 1990, 1988, 1987, 1986, 1984, 1983 and even 1982. That's 26 years in that period, such a shame that the New Year always seems to come in on such a dismal note. Christmas Day I think does better, I do remember quite a few dry and/or coldish Christmas Days. Decent New Year's Days, though, are very few and far between, even if you use quite a liberal definition of "decent" (dry, cloudy and calm with indifferent temps).

And in the majority of those years (2003, 1987 and 1982 being the only real exceptions) the majority of the first week of January was a write-off too. You also have to add 1996 in which New Year was dull but quiet but full on zonality arrived on the 3rd, so another year with a poor start to January.

Finally why are November-like temps into the low double figures being described as "normal" for the London/SE forecast on the Met Office next week? Certainly not normal for early Jan.

I'm just glad I'm out of the country right now and escaping yet another dismal New Year! Just hope the dull and wet conditions of the first week don't persist for too long and 2024 is better than 2023.

New Years Day 2022 was actually quite good here. It was dry, mostly cloudy and very mild with temps reaching 13°C during the afternoon.

15 hours ago, raz.org.rain said:

Seems the mood has turned sour in the models thread so I assume the chances of cold have downgraded a bit.

They should just stick with the CFS model. Hardly ever forecasts cold but at least they won’t get thier hopes up..

On 29/12/2023 at 06:38, Alderc 2.0 said:

Just had a look back at the month so far and only 6 days have failed to reached double figures with all 6 being in the first half of the month. Truly unprecedented to have such a mild run. While my dislike of the cold is clear it is certainly worrying to have such continued mildness. 

To be fair average high in Bournemouth in December is 9°C so I don’t think it’s too concerning. Based on the average high, you would expect around 40-50% of the days to have double figure maxima.

 

Bournemouth - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

On 29/12/2023 at 10:04, Sun Chaser said:

Getting by now knowing that generally the worst two months of the year weather-wise are over!! The days are now getting longer, plus this is the time of year that the Atlantic will start to slow as it cools and with new year, the long road to spring and summer begins. Soon the sun will be upon us once more and then warmer weather and longer evenings.

SAD sufferers, summer lovers, rain haters, our time is coming soon

We've still got a while to go yet though, the winter can linger on well into March and even April some years, especially up north. Just hope it’s not a poor spring or another Atlantic driven summer. So often it’s nice in May and June but July and August, what are supposed to be “high summer” are cloudy and wet. Then we often get some nice weather in early September, just when the schools and colleges go back. This year is a very good (and extreme) example of that. The weather was mostly poor during the school/college summer holidays (late June - Early September for colleges) but as soon as the schools and colleges went back we had the hottest and sunniest first week of September I’ve ever known.

 

15 hours ago, Catbrainz said:

This year despite having a high CET record hasn't felt that warm overall. It seems more down to lack of any cool/cold rather than heat. 2023 is one of the worse years ever weatherwise for here, only 2012 and 2015 were worse years that I recall. It does show how climate change is affecting climates though as for example July despite being a  rainfest with endless cyclonic NWlys managed to somehow scrape a average CET, looking at synoptics for July 2023 I would have guessed a CET in the 14s not 16.1. Heres my rating of this year overall

Jan= 5/10 (Awful first half, great 2nd half) 
Feb= 7.5/10 (Striked me as sunny and dry for Feb, no higher due to lack of wintery weather) 
Mar= 0/10 (Now a truly foul month) 
Apr= 4/10 (A lil on the meh side with no real heat or exciting weather) 
May= 7/10 (First half was pretty average, 2nd half amazing) 
Jun= 10/10 (A true classic June) 
Jul= 1.5/10 (Saved from a 0 down to some thundery interest and a few warm sunny days) 
Aug= 3.5/10 (More meh than truly poor,some scattered nice days but a lot of gloomy meh days)
Sept= 6.5/10 (First half was hot and sunny, 2nd half was mixed) 
Oct= 5.5/10 (Pretty average)
Nov= 5/10 (Again pretty bog standard)
Dec= 2/10 (Zonal rainfest no lower down to the cold snap early on brining some excitement) 
 

Yes it’s very typical of our modern climate these days. Most months and years above average but it’s usually down to mild nights, a lack of cold and short periods of very warm/hot weather pushing the average up. Just for a change, it would be nice to have a year where it’s cold or cool and wet for the first week of each month but then warm, dry and sunny for the rest of each month.

[raz.org.rain]

59 minutes ago, baddie said:

We are so bored of this awful weather we are having so lately. I can look at this month as "A December version of March 2023", and its nothing more than that. Even July 2023 and the second half of October 2023 looks lovely compared to this bullcrap

Please give us some cold and snow in January, and some spring-like conditions in February and March, and i emphasise, please, give us a lovely April

I'm practically gasping for some early spring warmth, but only if it doesn't spoil our chances of a hot dry summer too.

[TwisterGirl81]

Well thankfully the latest gfs models is keeping anything too cold at bay for the foreseeable apart from the usual northern areas Hopefully no late SSW either which ruined last spring and  made it cold until May

Roll on spring and some warmth  

[baddie]

3 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

I'm practically gasping for some early spring warmth, but only if it doesn't spoil our chances of a hot dry summer too.

2019 had that freaky warm February, and still gave us a decent Spring and Summer. We only had to pay for it in mid-June and well, after the September equinox for 6 months