Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[tight isobar]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just scanning the NH plots for mid December on gefs and eps - if we have a quiet December in this thread then we will have been extremely unlucky.  

Signs on the extended ens that the Atlantic hitting a wall at some point against higher heights to our east 

Ditto this- as again  the signal remains @ 2nd week onwards - and some could say increasing.@ possibly Scandinavian rises.

[MattStoke]

50 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

It is now evident that 95%+ will struggle to see any snow from this cold spell. Even Sunday's risk has significantly decreased. The consequence of a slack flow and mixing with higher pressure.

Exactly why I said from the start that we needed Thursday's frontal snow, with fontal snow being less marginal and not needing as much depth of cold, but people thought we'd instead see a bitterly easterly and streams of snow showers crossing the country if that system moved away even though the airmass never looked cold enough nor the flow strong enough. In fact, the easterly flow would have been stronger had that low got closer and then pulled away like it was initially modelled to. It was always going to be more marginal for snow showers than for frontal snow despite people claiming the opposite.

A few cold, frosty days is nice. The lack of snow for 99% of the UK is just a bit disappointing. 

Edited November 29, 2023 by MattStoke

[festivalking]

GFS still banging the drum for some sort of snow fall in the south west tomorrow. Other models are not so keen.

 

 

[sheikhy]

Gfs 06z seems even worse at 114 hours!!dont seem like an extention of cold on this run!!

[Paul]

11 minutes ago, festivalking said:

GFS still banging the drum for some sort of snow fall in the south west tomorrow. Other models are not so keen.

 

UKV has a bit as well. 

[Rob 79812010]

27 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ditto this- as again  the signal remains @ 2nd week onwards - and some could say increasing.@ possibly Scandinavian rises.

There are and as many have said, it feels different this year. No signs of anything other than average in 2nd week dec. After a very cold first week, lots to cheerful about. Lengthy cold spells beyond 10 days are a rare thing and always have been on our shores. A cold snowy winter is rarely unbroken cold

[sheikhy]

Hold on is that low trying to slide at 120 hours

[festivalking]

2 minutes ago, Paul said:

UKV has a bit as well. 

Yep - weather  warning just issued by MO for the south west. Potential 5cm on the moors.

[Aiden2012]

Inexperienced here but it doesn’t look like it’ll take much to change the picture and keep the cold in.

[TSNWK]

12 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Hold on is that low trying to slide at 120 hours

What happens @sheikhy

[Cambrian]

The 0z ECM is very progressive in moving and modestly developing what is a weak mid Atlantic low at day 3 into a low that is about 10mb deeper to the south of Ireland by day 5, here on the ensemble mean, and mixing some less cold air in over the UK and Ireland. 

 

  

On the spread, it looks fairly tight on the low heights at its centre, but day 5 is when the spread starts with regard to the southward extent, an 8 dam spread at day 5.

The spread to the north of the centre is much less, so that track is probably close to about as far north as it might possibly be. There is, however, plenty of scope for the track to adjust south, just as we have been seeing this week, and for the cold air to remain less mixed out. It looks ripe for elongation, disruption against the block with the prospect of systems sliding southeast.

The most notable zone of ambiguity though is between Greenland and Svalbard at the southeastern corner of that sumptuous wedge of heights, a 12 dam spread. A further build of heights over the Norwegian Sea is certainly an option on the table down the line. 

The potential knock-on effects are substantial. By day 9, there’s a colossal spread, linking those very same zones, with the UK and Ireland in the thick of it with regard to the lack of certainty. 

With that, any surprises over the next week to 10 days or so shouldn’t perhaps be that much of a surprise!

Edited November 29, 2023 by Cambrian

[LRD]

15 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

What happens @sheikhy

It didn't slide. Iberian/Euro high incoming

But things still looking good at the pole. There'll probably be more cold at some point in Dec. Let's hope it's the snowy variety next time

Edited November 29, 2023 by LRD
Typo

[LRD]

Very mild in a week or so

[Bricriu]

Our - Meteorological service- Met Eireann in its long range forecast is saying it will be mild and unsettled  for the rest of December. The only crumb of comfort for me is the EC46 didn't  go for this cold  spell and it can often flip in fi. I just hope we are not going to be stuck under slow moving systems for weeks on end due to heights to the North East.  We had enough rain over the last six weeks.

3 minutes ago, LRD said:

Very mild in a week or so

I could live with that if the high then migrated  north or north eastwards a few days later.  I know I am straw clutching 

Edited November 29, 2023 by Bricriu

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, LRD said:

Very mild in a week or so

Save on the bills....

[Frostbite80]

2 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Our - Meteorological service- Met Eireann in its long range forecast is saying it will be mild and unsettled  for the rest of December. The only crumb of comfort for me is the EC46 didn't  go for this cold  spell and it can often flip in fi. I just hope we are not going to be stuck under slow moving systems for weeks on end due to heights to the North East.  We had enough rain over the last six weeks.

Thats a brave call of them when we arnt even December yet.

[tight isobar]

Trigger point- this could be one of thee sparse times the Atlantic/ ejecting energy could be your friend! The azores coaxed towards scandi.keep an eye 👁 on this in future outs!.

Edited November 29, 2023 by tight isobar

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Our - Meteorological service- Met Eireann in its long range forecast is saying it will be mild and unsettled  for the rest of December. The only crumb of comfort for me is the EC46 didn't  go for this cold  spell and it can often flip in fi. I just hope we are not going to be stuck under slow moving systems for weeks on end due to heights to the North East.  We had enough rain over the last six weeks.

I could live with that if the high then migrated  north or north eastwards a few days later.  I know I am straw clutching 

Ouch !

Really hope they are wrong !!

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

We really are clutching at straws for anything decent next week..mild has been the form horse for a few runs now!

[tight isobar]

5 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Our - Meteorological service- Met Eireann in its long range forecast is saying it will be mild and unsettled  for the rest of December. The only crumb of comfort for me is the EC46 didn't  go for this cold  spell and it can often flip in fi. I just hope we are not going to be stuck under slow moving systems for weeks on end due to heights to the North East.  We had enough rain over the last six weeks.

I could live with that if the high then migrated  north or north eastwards a few days later.  I know I am straw clutching 

The Irish met could be correct- as future evolution has a signal for Scandinavian heights- that sadly leaves Ireland only on the cusp of any notable cold.@ easterly/ north easterly inflow.

[IDO]

A better take from the GFS 06z, handling the cold block to our E/NE with more respect than on the 0Z where it cleared it east. See the SW tip of Scandi holding on to that cold and forcing the warmer HP system under rather than through:

 

0Z run by D11:  06Z:

For the UK that means we move from zonal to sitting under a trough, neither really where we want to be. Pushing the UK back into the cold side of the jet post D10 after that mini-wave of warmth.

Edited November 29, 2023 by IDO

[tight isobar]

The strain on the vortex is clear @10 December ..some serious waving !

Edited November 29, 2023 by tight isobar

[ANYWEATHER]

1 hour ago, Premiere Neige said:

*meteorological winter

Yes sorry, thinking of Autumn while it should have Winter! My minds on too many things. ..☺

[Purga]

Not the worst NH profile I could think of

[Battleground Snow]

Time to pull the individual gefs perbs out