Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[minus10]

Have noticed growing trend for high pressure over or around uk at t300 or so on gfs..

Last 4 gefs..

...the op erratically leading the way however the mean pressure also edging up..

...mild by day but fog/ frost at night perhaps cloud permitting..

...not in the best position but could mean a drier spell towards last third of the month...

...not sure if anything can come of it though...

..looking at anom animation the higher pressure tends to build or drift north east with another area moving in from the Atlantic..

...maybe this can evolve into something more useful...maybe not..be interesting to see extended eps to see if supported...

...well i have to clutch at some straws! ...

 

[WYorksWeather]

Thought I'd do something a bit different, and have a look at what sort of temperatures we might expect over the next few days. Here's the UKV at 3pm for tomorrow through Saturday:

I think the main takeaway from this is that tomorrow looks slightly colder than average, Wednesday quite cold, Thursday slightly colder than average, Friday slightly above average, and Saturday notably mild for most.

Looking at overnight lows, at 3am from tomorrow morning through Saturday morning:

The night time pattern seems to be slightly above average early tomorrow morning, then significantly colder than average Wednesday early hours, Thursday near normal, and Friday and Saturday both notably mild.

Net effect I think will be that the week as a whole will probably come out slightly above average, except in the far north. 

[feb1991blizzard]

12 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

A tweet by World Climate Service. We heading to a Modoki El Nino.

what lag effect is there between a modoki el nino occurring and ocean / atmosphere coupling please?

[stodge]

Evening all

The key seems to be how the push of heights from the south west is going to play out.

It could migrate right through to Scandinavia and set up a cold block - it could sit just to the west or south west and offer the possibility of transient cold as LP systems move NW-SE across the British Isles or it could establish a mid-latitiude block over the British Isles.

A mid-latitude block in mid-December isn't going to be "mild" - temperature inversion under clear skies would lead to very cold night time minima and low daytime maxima as the days are at their shortest. It's the route to ice days without snow. 

[Cambrian]

Siberia socks Central Asia in the Kazakhs at day 7 on the 12z ECM op. The teleconnections roar the Atlantic on from the more expensive seats, but to no avail, the Eurasian chill is impervious. 

“The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated” reflects the Scandinavian cold block in truest Mark Twain style as by day 10 heights link through the wedge from the Azores to the Urals,

  

and cold air returns west around the northern flank of another trapped European low. 

[January Snowstorm]

The ecm is definitely fighting back with the cold to our East more or less staying in situ! This is very important as we head towards Christmas with cold air ready to feed West. I've a sneaky feeling the charts are going to improve very soon!

Ecm @240 hrs shows Europe still cold, perhaps very cold at the surface

Edited December 4, 2023 by January Snowstorm

[Methuselah]

There's nowt too exciting on today's GFS 12Z, and as I can only report I see, and there's little point airing one's desires here:

  

As always, patience and fortitude are in order. 

 

Edited December 4, 2023 by Methuselah

[Summer8906]

5 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

There's nowt too exciting on today's GFS 12Z, and as I can only report I see, and there's little point airing one's desires here:

  

As always, patience and fortitude are in order. 

 

 

To paraphrase the common phrase, "at least it will be dry" in 10 days time according to that. Not exciting, though, of course. Probably 8C and anticyclonic gloom. But to be honest what we need more than anything is a sustained dry spell, cold or mild.

[Downburst]

1 hour ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

A tweet by World Climate Service. We heading to a Modoki El Nino.

Yes, world climate service is not related to any UN or intergovernmental org etc. but I looked up some info on Modoki EL Nino, can’t find a reliable comment as to what this might mean to these parts, so I’ll leave this from WIKI and that’s saying a lot if you follow

Recent years when La Niña Modoki events occurred include 1973–1974, 1975–1976, 1983–1984, 1988–1989, 1998–1999, 2000–2001, 2008–2009, 2010–2011, and 2016–2017.

and again wiki

The first recorded El Niño that originated in the central Pacific and moved toward the east was in 1986.[77] Recent Central Pacific El Niños happened in 1986–87, 1991–92, 1994–95, 2002–03, 2004–05 and 2009–10.[78] Furthermore, there were "Modoki" events in 1957–59,[79] 1963–64, 1965–66, 1968–70, 1977–78 and 1979–80.[80][81] Some sources say that the El Niños of 2006-07 and 2014-16 were also Central Pacific El Niños

impacts on Europe, El Niño's effects on Europe are controversial, complex and difficult to analyse, as it is one of several factors that influence the weather over the continent and other factors can overwhelm the signal

Edited December 4, 2023 by Downburst

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Zonal winds still looking solid folks..No backing down over the past week.

[cheeky_monkey]

9 minutes ago, Downburst said:

Yes, world climate service is not related to any UN or intergovernmental org etc. but I looked up some info on Modoki EL Nino, can’t find a reliable comment as to what this might mean to these parts, so I’ll leave this from WIKI and that’s saying a lot if you follow

Recent years when La Niña Modoki events occurred include 1973–1974, 1975–1976, 1983–1984, 1988–1989, 1998–1999, 2000–2001, 2008–2009, 2010–2011, and 2016–2017.

and again wiki

The first recorded El Niño that originated in the central Pacific and moved toward the east was in 1986.[77] Recent Central Pacific El Niños happened in 1986–87, 1991–92, 1994–95, 2002–03, 2004–05 and 2009–10.[78] Furthermore, there were "Modoki" events in 1957–59,[79] 1963–64, 1965–66, 1968–70, 1977–78 and 1979–80.[80][81] Some sources say that the El Niños of 2006-07 and 2014-16 were also Central Pacific El Niños

i think you mean 2009-10 ..10-11 was a strong La Nina..this El Nino isnt a Modoki yet as it didn't originate in the central basin ..there is however rapid cooling now occurring in the eastern Pacific close to south America which would make it a Modoki..not sure what the atmospheric lag would be for that should it transpire in the next 2 weeks or so..good news for me none the less as Modoki usually produce an early spring here

[northwestsnow]

Wowzers.

[draztik]

18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Wowzers.

Sigh. 
 

no context. Just a photo? Pls elaborate for new and existing members. 
 

Edited December 4, 2023 by draztik

[bluearmy]

44 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Zonal winds still looking solid folks..No backing down over the past week.

 

13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Wowzers.

I would expect that if the pattern over weeks three and four doesn’t fit what the ec46 has been showing - ural ridge and Aleutian low, then these strat anoms may not verify as strongly as shown. 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, draztik said:

Sigh. 
 

no context. Just a photo? 
 

Sorry my bad its from EC46 early January.

[johncam]

EC control pretty poor tight till end 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

 

I would expect that if the pattern over weeks three and four doesn’t fit what the ec46 has been showing - ural ridge and Aleutian low, then these strat anoms may not verify as strongly as shown. 

Always that danger of course.

TBH I look at EC 46 every day and I don't think it's great ,especially beyond week 2, trop wise at least..

[feb1991blizzard]

22 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Wowzers.

A bit stretched on eps mean but nothing more (yet)

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, johncam said:

EC control pretty poor tight till end 

It will be - there is little hope of anything wintry for us for 7 to 10 days minimum ,IMO..

I'm hoping the MJO wave will be amplified enough to do the business because the Atlantic has lots of energy ..

Edited December 4, 2023 by northwestsnow

[snowsummer]

1 hour ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

A tweet by World Climate Service. We heading to a Modoki El Nino.

My evening just got better with that piece  of news

[damianslaw]

Not commented much on the models recently due to the very snowy recent conditions here. A foot of snow 2nd day of December beats anything since late March 13.

Alas, for the foreseeable its a return to standard early winter fayre, westerly atlantic flow, lots of rain, windy at time and other than tomorrow evening, a mostly mild outlook. Not what some may want, if after cold and snow, but the signal for a return to rain and westerlies has been visible for a while.

Where may we be heading..., GFS sniffing out mid atlantic height rises mid month, ECM also to a degree, but I think we may have to wait a few days before can call with any confidence a change to something more settled and possibly colder.

 

 

Edited December 4, 2023 by damianslaw

[MAF]

3 hours ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

What they mean? Ie the op the det run and the control run are similar..They are 2 runs from a possible 30 runs on gfs and as much as 50 on the ecm. With each run being started from a slightly different variation in initial conditions..the det tending to be higher resolution with the op 2nd..The mean is roughly an average of all ensembles in the run.

eh??? in english for us lesser educated weather folk please. 

Not criticizing you but for the novices here fuller explanations, less abbreviations, more depth in posts would help immensely. I've been here long enough to understand most posts, but i know how hard it is when i first started interpreting posts that for beginners it's a nightmare.  no offence intended

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I think the yanks could quickly lose patience with the way things could be heading..Strong East based EL Nino could bring much warmer conditions moving through the month. Keeping the cold from them can only be better for us longer term in my honest opinion. @MAF i dont think i could have explained it in any easier terms. 

 

Edited December 4, 2023 by MATTWOLVES 3

[bluearmy]

Just now, MAF said:

eh??? in english for us lesser educated weather folk please. 

Not criticizing you but for the novices here fuller explanations, less abbreviations, more depth in posts would help immensely. I've been here long enough to understand most posts, but i know how hard it is when i first started interpreting posts that for beginners it's a nightmare.  no offence intended

I doubt he could be much less technical.  If people are struggling then there are learning areas on the forum and in addition, uncle Google is usually very helpful. 

[MAF]

Just now, bluearmy said:

I doubt he could be much less technical.  If people are struggling then there are learning areas on the forum and in addition, uncle Google is usually very helpful. 

yes mate, i don't disagree. just wish some of the more experienced posters would make reading and thus interpreting posts easier for the lees knowledgeable. I'd much rather read posts where i don't need to wander off to other resources to interpret them, just my opinion. and having been around a few years now i understand the frustrations of seeing things posted and not fully appreciating what the poster is relaying because of the technicalities of the post. as a degree qualified engineer i am not lacking in understanding of things, yet the weather often is so complicated at times.

hey ho, time to stay out of the models thread again ...