Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Which surprises me,it looks awful to me.

 

Not exactly an Atlantic racing in chart.

[offerman]

Hi Pressure, is too much in control for my liking and always too close to our south-west. That’s not allowing the cold to flood south.

we need that high to go more mid-Atlantic and not elongated, but vertical opening floodgates, and at the moment I can’t see that happening on the latest runs

[Spah1]

High sinking UKMO 168hrs as per NWS comment yesterday. 
 

Where is the amplification coming from

Looks poor. 

[Day 10]

Just sat back reading the pages as they come in as busy with work but what a mad roller coaster once again! What will the ECM do I wonder? Entertaining if nothing else.

[Kasim Awan]

Could just be an unlucky set of ops. GFS 12Z mean is unchanged from 06Z.

[Harsh Climate]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Which surprises me,it looks awful to me.

 

Id say awful is a bartlett, dartboard low or impending Atlantic onslaught, ukmo shows neither.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Id say awful is a bartlett, dartboard low or impending Atlantic onslaught, ukmo shows neither.

I meant awful in the context of what I was hoping for

[Kasim Awan]

This is awful.

[Harsh Climate]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I meant awful in the context of what I was hoping for

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS are fine (within context).

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS are fine (within context).

Yes we might have rogue ops..

It's not impossible ..

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS are fine (within context).

Split 55/45 in favour of ICON. 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Split 55/45 in favour of ICON. 

I'll take it.

UKMO is jumping around,I'll wait for EC before the phone goes flying ..

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Yes we might have rogue ops..

It's not impossible ..

i'd be trusting ens over ops from 23rd onwards (the point at which a good few Ens nosedive and the op climbs).

[Rob 79812010]

15 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

This is awful.

All looks alright for Xmas and maybe cold again towards new year. Keep the faith. Always flips around on GFS and enough cold flips to keep us in the hunt

[northwestsnow]

MOGREPS nagging away though.

Didn't look good earlier..

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

MOGREPS nagging away though.

Didn't look good earlier..

Can you post this.

[Purga]

Appalling post Xmas Op run typified below. Lets hope to *#%* the GEFS & ECM give some hope.

Shorties are OK so far.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Purga

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Can you post this.

i described 00z MOGREPS ,This is 6z its an upgrade from the 00z set.

[BartyHater]

7 minutes ago, Purga said:

Appalling post Xmas Op run typified below. Lets hope to *#%* the GEFS & ECM give some hope.

Shorties are OK so far.

At least the Op isn't the coldest on this run for the 25th, but it is still on the cold side of the cluster.

[Guest]

GEFS look promising if its a Christmas cold snap/spell is what you are after. 

[damianslaw]

As mentioned, won't be until early next week models will settle on the likely lead in to christmas 23-25 Dec, I fully expect short term developments/ features to pop up. The forcing is from a very unstable arctic profile, this to me looks to have the power to fend off the azores/iberian heights.. more runs needed. 

Edited December 16, 2023 by damianslaw

[AO-]

For as far as I can see there is little agreement across models. What is being shown is a representative output of the different EPS. It is hard to say whether the ridge will succeed and all depends on the behaviour of the through near New Foundland. Those are details which may have a large effect. EPS till day 10 are not worse for what I can see. Models clearly "struggle". 

Edited December 16, 2023 by AO-

[BartyHater]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

As mentioned, won't be until early next week models will settle on the likely lead in to christmas 23-25 Dec, I fully expect short term developments/ features to pop up. The forcing is from a very unstable arctic profile, this to me looks to have the power to fend off the azores/iberian heights.. more heights needed. 

Whilst I agree it'll be early next week before we can have any real confidence in the general direction of travel, I think the complete opposite...imo Iberian heights will prevent all but the far north and east seeing anything resembling genuine cold (as opposed to just feeling cold in the wind) both pre and across the Xmas period....though obviously I hope you're correct.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

There’s no reason to concern about super cold and snow during  Christmas.   It’s very early winter, chilly will do for me but I remember the super warm Xmas (in Swansea) in 1985……historic winter month + followed.  Won’t go any further….chances will be there…..and btw I remember more Green Christmas’ than white….a lot more…and i’m no Spring chicken

 

BFTP