Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[CoventryWeather]

ECM 96

Has that low in the Atlantic further south and much weaker. Still likely to slide as we head towards the new year period. Nice to see it stick with this mornings evolution. 

This is the scenario we would prefer. It would likely lead to a cold snap towards the early start of New Year. 

[blizzard81]

That's an interesting chart. 

[CoventryWeather]

Perhaps a snow maker in the south west at 144. Looks tight, but still shows the wedge of heights over Iceland. Positive run so far. 

Edited December 26, 2023 by CoventryWeather

[Ali1977]

ECM close to a snow event down south again early next week, looks good going forward too. 

 

Precip doesn’t quite engage the cold air on this run 

Edited December 26, 2023 by Ali1977

[tight isobar]

On the bounce- And an illustration of a rapid movement response @ inverted flux around the pacific- and vortex dissolve at point limpit!.. allowance for reasonable mlbs and polar spillage..at reasonably short/ mid range.. we’ll still await the later response also going forward.. 

Edited December 26, 2023 by tight isobar

[Ali1977]

That’s a pretty cold T168

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

That’s a pretty cold T168

Yep, ecm is cold from New Years Eve to the 02nd Jan. Not sure where it will go from there though. 

[Ali1977]

T150 dies have some snow to the far SW, so similar to last run 

[Harsh Climate]

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

Gfs control goes the end of Dec 78 route. I would really bank that right now. 

Check ECM 240h wow

 

Edited December 26, 2023 by Harsh Climate

[tight isobar]

Signals-@ ecm…

[Lukesluckybunch]

Really liking this ECM RUN throughout.cold everywhere and some very cold air ready to pounce from the northeast maybe?

[blizzard81]

Day 8 - Brutal cold other side of the north sea. Plus home grown cold building over the UK. 

[stratty]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

T150 dies have some snow to the far SW, so similar to last run 

Are these produced by ceefax? 

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Check ECM 240h wow

Isn't that the CFS? Nice though

[Harsh Climate]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Isn't that the CFS? Nice though

My mistake ye lovely chart

[Catacol]

I love it when the models struggle for coherence. ECM toward the end of the run is a mess - doesn’t know if it is coming or going. Sure sign that things are becoming more than a little interesting…

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Check ECM 240h wow

 

Ha ha just seen the 2023 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Catacol said:

I love it when the models struggle for coherence. ECM toward the end of the run is a mess - doesn’t know if it is coming or going. Sure sign that things are becoming more than a little interesting…

Exactly what I was thinking. It's an incredibly weird run. This is good news - It's as if the model knows we are going to go cold but doesn't have a clue as to how, why or when. 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

EC 240

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Exactly what I was thinking. It's an incredibly weird run. This is good news - It's as if the model knows we are going to go cold but doesn't have a clue as to how, why or when. 

 

Yes, I was thinking much the same, it is as if the models have worked out that what they had yesterday in the first 10 days wasn’t right, in terms of a mainly zonal solution, but that the actual solution might be a wedge here, ridge there, trough here, slider there, and it is just too difficult to piece together just yet.  

This one ends on an easterly:

[Allseasons-Si]

A long way off but the EC has an easterly by day ten with colder uppers marching SW...

plenty of interest to keep us on our toes up until then

 

WXCharts v1.0.21

WWW.WXCHARTS.COM

---

A new weather forecast model data viewer for Europe and North America. Clickable forecast and ensemble plots, hourly GFS, ECMWF, ARPEGE and GEFS plots

 

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, I was thinking much the same, it is as if the models have worked out that what they had yesterday in the first 10 days wasn’t right, in terms of a mainly zonal solution, but that the actual solution might be a wedge here, ridge there, trough here, slider there, and it is just too difficult to piece together just yet.  

This one ends on an easterly:

Indeed Mike. That's a nice set up after a strange (but good) run. 

[sebastiaan1973]

Incredible cold in Scandinavia and NW-Russia,

[Ali1977]

Just now, sebastiaan1973 said:

Incredible cold in Scandinavia and NW-Russia,

Normally when we get the correct set up for an easterly it takes several days for the real cold to be dragged from Siberia , having -35c in Scandy will certainly speed up that process - now we just need to correct set up

[tight isobar]

The bearing fruits of mlbs and an arctic profile to match… and this a probably cause.. even b4 ramifications on the upper layers…. Winter likely gets going within reasonable time params… over to the supports..