Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

It’s one chart at day 10, it’ll be different in 6 hours!! The cold is coming , then the snow chances. 

So what happened with the cold coming in December and the snow chances after ? Absolutely zilch and same again this time around.

There is not enough blocking in place for this to deliver.

[January Snowstorm]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

It’s one chart at day 10, it’ll be different in 6 hours!! The cold is coming , then the snow chances. 

Not really the gfs runs four times a day as we know and it hasn't come up with one decent 10 day chart in the last week. That's a fairly solid trend that a cold spell is not counting down

[MJB]

1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

So what happened with the cold coming in December and the snow chances after ? Absolutely zilch and same again this time around.

There is not enough blocking in place for this to deliver.

A reminder of what is being forecast from the 8th onwards, granted it's a forecast and has been on the output for the last 5 days. patience required

[January Snowstorm]

Just now, MJB said:

A reminder of what is being forecast from the 8th onwards, granted it's a forecast and has been on the output for the last 5 days. patience required

Indeed but a few days ago that high was showing over Greenland whereas now it's off the coast of Scotland. That's a significant move in the wrong direction even though on paper it would still be cold

[andy989]

Deleted 

Edited December 29, 2023 by andy989

[MJB]

That beauty has just appeared

[MJB]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Indeed but a few days ago that high was showing over Greenland whereas now it's off the coast of Scotland. That's a significant move in the wrong direction even though on paper it would still be cold

And it might sit over us but it's a block, at least the UK has a chance once it has formed, let's hope if it does reside over the UK it can drift off in a favourable direction eh

[Ali1977]

Some chill pills required, however if no one minds I’ll just stay positive and chase anything I can that points to cold - on to tomorrow  

Edited December 29, 2023 by Ali1977

[Allseasons-Si]

I think everyone has had too many sherry's cos as far as i am concerned the charts was showing height's past day ten if memory serves but now we are seeing this been brought forward before day ten as in heights starting to build in the Atlantic,no model is going to nail a day ten chart just yet so sit tight and see how the next few days pan's out

don't forget that the 12z has been a good upgrade today so don't let one chart (aka the pub run) spoil your evening when it doesn't show what you want it to show

it does have better amp than the 12z as i stated in my post^^ but goes teet's up,...IN FL but hey that's just that fl.

 

[Polar Maritime]

Lots of posts will go missing if this sort of reading continues, please report any posts you may think are against the rules.  Model Discussion only please use the Winter banter moans thread for everything else..  

Edited December 29, 2023 by Polar Maritime

[AO-]

Models are still puzzling. At this moment we can only hope for the Atlantic ridge to be well enough developed to cut off the Atlantic. GFS begins nicely at day 7, but by day 11, it is over. The vortex reinforces and leaves us with a "Bartlett". Let's hope and pray that when 8th of January comes nearer, the details are in our advantage. Too many times the cold had been postponed. 

Edited December 29, 2023 by AO-

[Ali1977]

Just now, fromey said:

I feel there’s a really bad atmosphere here tonight, it seems like every time someone posts  someone’s  putting it down!

 

Fear of not getting the charts to materialise I guess!! 
 

What’s that happening day 6 on the control - around Newfoundland!! Quick route to cold?? 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

US top to bottom in the freezer….very bad for us

 

BFTP

[booferking]

So to recap gfs 18z op brings colder air in quicker early on then turns absolutely crap pathetic going forward all the good work undone hopefully an outlier late on.

 

 

Edited December 29, 2023 by booferking

[Sweatyman]

3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

US top to bottom in the freezer….very bad for us

 

BFTP

well it had to happen didn't it! And it will

[MJB]

4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

US top to bottom in the freezer….very bad for us

 

BFTP

Not really, that wasn't the case in Jan 2010 when we had bitter cold, same time as the US, we can both go cold together 

[Allseasons-Si]

OK guy's let's keep it friendly in here please,do remember this is a public forum that anyone can read

please keep it model thread related with some backup as to what you are explaining with a bit more info,one liners/moaning and off topic post's will get moved or removed

there is a moans thread,there is a meto thread and a historic thread of which you all know about

thank you.

[E17boy]

6 hours ago, E17boy said:

Hi peeps

I know excitement is mounting again but please while charts 7 to 10 days out are beginning to look decent we still need to be cautious. I am only saying this so that if (Hope not) it all gets watered down then there will be a lot of disappointment. My best advice would be to wait for a 3 to 4 days ahead trend , this is more likely to have more weight (although the risk of this time period is still there) . However it is up to individual expectations but hopefully things will fall in the right direction. 
 

regards

I will re-emphasise my post from earlier. I still stay on the same ground, until we get to the reliable anything past that take it with a pinch of salt. The weather will do what it wants we can’t change it with our expectations. We can only live in that hope that it will deliver for us coldies.

On a positive note we have plenty of winter left and plenty of time for the weather to change. 
 

regards

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

16 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

US top to bottom in the freezer….very bad for us

 

BFTP

In other words a very strong Atlantic jet stream with limited blocking ?

[January Snowstorm]

The gfs control is an improvement on its previous run. Potential from here but also worth noting that uppers are very poor for early Jan

A northeasterly feed and still not proper cold yet

Edited December 29, 2023 by January Snowstorm

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

In other words a very strong Atlantic jet stream with limited blocking ?

It can happen like that but it’s not simply a+b=c 

[MJB]

7 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

In other words a very strong Atlantic jet stream with limited blocking ?

15 days away deepest FI and totally unreliable which falls in this time frame

Interesting 

[Bricriu]

The GFS op run is what  I would expect to see due to the major SSW being a bust. We will have a weakened Strat vortex and weaker zonal winds, but it looks like too much residual energy in the wrong place to me. I hope I am wrong but I am getting a feeling this will end up just like the letdown in the run up to Christmas.  

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

2 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

The GFS op run is what  I would expect to see due to the major SSW being a bust. We will have a weakened Strat vortex and weaker zonal winds, but it looks like too much residual energy in the wrong place to me. I hope I am wrong but I am getting a feeling this will end up just like the letdown in the run up to Christmas.  

The only consolation will be the much needed dry weather!

Maybe February could deliver like in 1991 ?

Edited December 29, 2023 by prolongedSnowLover

[The Enforcer]

27 minutes ago, booferking said:

So to recap gfs 18z op brings colder air in quicker early on then turns absolutely crap pathetic going forward all the good work undone hopefully an outlier late on.

T+216 is not what I would define as "early" and therein lies the problem.