Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[Craigers]

1 hour ago, cowdog said:

Warnings issued for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Only covers the Pennines as expected, but that could well change.

 

I'm just on the edge too!

[DevinW]

Met office wording: 

Snow showers will continue to feed inland early on Tuesday morning across northern and western Scotland, parts of Wales and northwest England where 2-5 cm of snow is possible over a few hours in some places. During the day, an area of more organised rain, sleet and snow is likely to move east with further showers following. There is still some uncertainty in the track of more prolonged snow, and it is possible that at lower elevations across Wales and northern England, this could turn to rain for a time. However, there is a chance some places could see 5-10 cm perhaps 20 cm of snow, particularly across the northern half of Scotland and over higher ground elsewhere.

Edited January 14 by DevinW

[Matt Jones]

Not looking too good for us east of the A1, needed less westerly component to the winds, it was concerning when the initial northerly got watered down, key thing missing here was when the push from the north became less apparent and LP to the SW nudged the pattern a little.

Edited January 14 by Matt Jones

[York-snow]

Any chance of that band north of Newcastle making it to us later?

[Empire Of Snow]

6 minutes ago, York-snow said:

Any chance of that band north of Newcastle making it to us later?

Nope, absolutely 0% chance. 

[SouthYorks]

14 minutes ago, York-snow said:

Any chance of that band north of Newcastle making it to us later?

Looks to be fizzling out to me, so highly unlikely.

[MIKE LEVITT]

Whatever happened to the potent northerlies we used to get down the east coast with frequent heavy snowshowers.seems to be a thing of the past

[Wold Topper]

Took this pic about 3.30 of the showers heading this way, sat under them now but unfortunately its mostly graupel

[Aiden2012]

That little band of precipitation is interesting but not getting excited usually dies after the north York moors 

[Empire Of Snow]

25 minutes ago, MIKE LEVITT said:

Whatever happened to the potent northerlies we used to get down the east coast with frequent heavy snowshowers.seems to be a thing of the past

It depends on other factors also. Many believe the North Sea is like the Big Lakes in Michigan. The sad truth is it isn't a snow machine. 

[Light Without Heat]

1 hour ago, MIKE LEVITT said:

Whatever happened to the potent northerlies we used to get down the east coast with frequent heavy snowshowers.seems to be a thing of the past

Always need a slight NE tilt to them. Northerly winds cause the Xmas tree effect in this country. 

[winterof79]

North westerly will sort it mid week

[SouthYorks]

1 hour ago, MIKE LEVITT said:

Whatever happened to the potent northerlies we used to get down the east coast with frequent heavy snowshowers.seems to be a thing of the past

Agree!  Northerlies always seem to be diluted when they actually arrive, often switching to North Westerlies.   Although to be honest Northerlies rarely deliver for anyone other than those on the coast and maybe NYM (wishbone effect).  Personally, I prefer a strong East North Easterly as that benefits a wider area and can often generate streamers.

[mike57]

Snow showers now at the coast arfter the earlier graupel and rain, not quite cold enough to settle, but whipped by a strong NW wind its certainly quite unpleasant out. Here forecast for tomorrow morning is more showers, could be quite tricky, but given wind direction they are not getting far inland.

[winterof79]

47 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

North westerly will sort it mid week

[Hatewarmth]

25 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

What do the think the chances are of the rain forecast at the weekend could be snow. Model look to be extending the cold a tad but not sure

[cheese]

2 hours ago, Empire Of Snow said:

It depends on other factors also. Many believe the North Sea is like the Big Lakes in Michigan. The sad truth is it isn't a snow machine. 

It can produce some very good sea effect snow occasionally though, just needs a cold enough air mass. Feb/March 2018 had brilliant sea effect snow. 
 

This radar image was from February 28th 2018. Heavy snow showers all day. Low visibility and drifting. 

Edited January 14 by cheese

[Wold Topper]

1 hour ago, mike57 said:

Snow showers now at the coast arfter the earlier graupel and rain, not quite cold enough to settle, but whipped by a strong NW wind its certainly quite unpleasant out. Here forecast for tomorrow morning is more showers, could be quite tricky, but given wind direction they are not getting far inland.

Freezing like a gudden out now after the graupel showers earlier, will be a 'Slape' drive to work in the morning, any early morning showers will make it even trickier.

Edited January 14 by Wold Topper

[Aiden2012]

Just looked on brid harbour cam and it’s fully snow now so if they get some showers may be good  

[Aaron Roberts]

Well, i’m looking forward to some snow on Tuesday! Fingers crossed.

[Harsh Climate]

Gotta say I am not that confident of snow IMBY, maybe dusting - 1 cm as the front clears Tuesday evening/night.

Had I still lived in Otley I would have been licking my lips at the chance of a surprise snowfall, nothing more satisfying than that! Otley I am going 3-5cm Tuesday - Thursday with 20% of up to 10cm.  Otley always had a special nack of showers feeding in at night from gaps in the high ground to the west and northwest. 

[Harsh Climate]

57 minutes ago, cheese said:

It can produce some very good sea effect snow occasionally though, just needs a cold enough air mass. Feb/March 2018 had brilliant sea effect snow. 
 

This radar image was from February 28th 2018. Heavy snow showers all day. Low visibility and drifting. 

Oh how I miss the rain today radar, had many a good night following snow showers in from the E or NE (well maybe not many.)

The north sea would be better than the great lakes with its higher temperatures, The only problem is we don't have -25 uppers going across it like Buffalo or Oswego get!

[Tim A]

Not really very hopefully for Tuesday, either, yet to see a recent model run that shows snowfall over us or most of the region. Only hope is models are underestimating like the weekend of the 26th Nov 21 (Storm Arwen) that was unexpected from the NW. But that is hopecasting really.   Some models such as UKMO HD show heavy snow NW Dales but not really further SE. 

Met office text forecasts are lazy so whilst they say chance of disruptive snow , they say they same thing for NW England, Yorks and NE England, they are often way off the mark so wouldn't rely on them.

[Harsh Climate]

1 minute ago, Tim A said:

Not really very hopefully for Tuesday, either, yet to see a recent model run that shows snowfall over us or most of the region. Only hope is models are underestimating like the weekend of the 26th Nov 21 (Storm Arwen) that was unexpected from the NW. But that is hopecasting really.   Some models such as UKMO HD show heavy snow NW Dales but not really further SE. 

Met office text forecasts are lazy so whilst they say chance of disruptive snow , they say they same thing for NW England, Yorks and NE England, they are often way off the mark so wouldn't rely on them.

You will get a good stream of snow showers at some point between Tue - Thu. At your elevation will be cold enough for 100% settling snow for the most part, as you know doesn't take long for heavy snow showers to quickly accumulate in those conditions. I'm going 5-10cm for you.

[Empire Of Snow]

1 hour ago, Harsh Climate said:

Oh how I miss the rain today radar, had many a good night following snow showers in from the E or NE (well maybe not many.)

The north sea would be better than the great lakes with its higher temperatures, The only problem is we don't have -25 uppers going across it like Buffalo or Oswego get!

It's not only the T difference between the water and 850hpa. This can range from 13c-25c for lake effect and it's not the problem. There are other factors like winds direction at 3km, winds speed etc. North Sea can rarely produce a proper lake effect and if it happens it should be early December imo. I'm not an expert though, if someone has some records and examples would be great.