SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

[SnowBorder]

My iPhone Met office app is predicting heavy snow here from 9am until midday.  

[BLS]

17 minutes ago, SnowBorder said:

My iPhone Met office app is predicting heavy snow here from 9am until midday.  

Between Sevenoaks and Maidstone could be the sweet spot this morning, rain has turned to snow here 

[alexisj9]

Si far it's rain here.

[BLS]

3 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Si far it's rain here.

That’s a shame the radar is showing snow showers over Dover a little heavy as well, must not be enough to make it to ground level  

[dallas]

The colder upper air is not due to around 0900, so it could be that

[Blessed Weather]

Netweather V8 radar showing a sleety mix at 06.30. Looking at the Arome forecast for 2m temps, most of the Region is unfortunately the wrong side of zero and stays that way despite the -10C 850hPa isotherm reaching us by 16.00 this afternoon.

Situation at 16.00 this afternoon:

850 temps  2m temps

[Eagle Eye]

Models only have a small amount being snow yet, the cold hasn't properly got here yet and it's not 2am at the moment so it hasn't fallen to cold enough yet. 

Models don't bring in the good dewpoint till this evening. 

Edited January 8 by Eagle Eye

[Kasim Awan]

10 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Netweather V8 radar showing a sleety mix at 06.30. Looking at the Arome forecast for 2m temps, most of the Region is unfortunately the wrong side of zero and stays that way despite the -10C 850hPa isotherm reaching us by 16.00 this afternoon.

Situation at 16.00 this afternoon:

850 temps  2m temps

In any heavier showers temperatures will hit 0c fairly quickly.

[BLS]

Had a light snow for about 2 minutes here stopped as got on train least seen some snow

Wind has become more easterly it seems as well 

[alexisj9]

Just now, BLS said:

Had a light snow for about 2 minutes here stopped as got on train least seen some snow

Saw some in December which landed, we'll see what this lot does, sounds like by the time conditions are right, it'll be northwest of me.

[Jamie M]

Sleety snow here

 

 

[Kentspur]

Looks promising already

[East Kent Snow Desert]

2 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

Sleety snow here

 

IMG_7963.mov 51.86 MB · 1 download  

 

Looking more promising. Met app has us down for snow at 11am and then again mid afternoon fwiw

[Vortex3929]

Morning. No idea what's happening outside as I don't have a lamppost near enough to see anything. Radar looks wet with whatever it is. I'm just going to wait and see today. Be it rain or snow!

[Tom Montalbano]

1 hour ago, BLS said:

Between Sevenoaks and Maidstone could be the sweet spot this morning, rain has turned to snow here 

Good Morning all.

I hope I find yourselves and your Families well and prepared for what could for some in our Region, the first Snow of Winter.

I tend to agree with BLS above, I think the best locations for any Snowfall could be mid Kent, rather than the Thames Corridor.

I will now post up a charts from the 00z Model runs, in a bid to back that statement up.

But I'll first post up a couple of links to Radar Websites, that are particularly relevant in the current Synoptic set up we find ourselves in

Rain radar & weather forecast | Meteoradar

Buienradar.nl - Buienradar.nl - Weer - Actuele neerslag, weerbericht, weersverwachting, sneeuwradar en satellietbeelden

They are a bit underwhelming at the moment but that is almost certainly doe to the fact that the coldest Upper Air [850hPa], hasn't arrived over the Southern North Sea, yet.

This isn't forecast to arrive, until around 9 A.M., still a couple of hours away.

To illustrate the point, I've chosen a chart from the 00z Arpege Model run, as they show 3 hourly situations: 

As you can see above, a lobe of -11c/-12c Upper Air is expected to enter the Southern North Sea, at 9 A,M. 

With a temperature differential of around +20C, this in theory should kickstart a more potent Streamer.

But I think we could be looking at a mid Kent Streamer, rather than a Thames Streamer.

Below, is a chart of the expected Steering Flow, at 9 A.M.:

To my eyes, that looks more N.E than E.N.E.

Therefore, I expect the "sweet spot" for any appreciable Snowfall to be the higher parts of mid Kent and East Sussex:

Places such as Sevenoaks. the Kentish Downs between Maidstone and Canterbury, and on into the High Weald of West Kent/East Sussex. 

In other words, areas S.E. of London, rather than my location in S.E. London.

But I'll finish with an example of a Thames Snow Streamer that did deliver, for where I was living at the time.

Those of you that can, cast your mind back to this exact date, 21 Years ago.

Below, are a few Synoptic memories of that event.

 / 

If memory serves I was staying with my Parents in Bromley Kent, at the time.

I vividly remember Weatherman Francis Wilson on BBC Breakfast time warning of the likelihood of a Thames type Streamer affecting the Thames Corridor and down into mid-Kent.

The Snowfall started around the early rush hour and by the time I left for work in Croydon [around 11 A.M.], there was around 2 inches of Snow on the ground, at my Parents House, in Bromley.

Below, is a Youtube clip of Peter Gibbs with a very Wintry Forecast for some parts of our Region, back then:

Regards,

Tom Q.  

Edited January 8 by Tom Quintavalle

[Kasim Awan]

6 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Looks promising already

Looking at the cosmo model the current streamer will be replaced by a stronger one further West in a few hours.

[tight isobar]

6 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Looks promising already

Those showers really packing in now. 

[lottiekent]

Despite the radar showing snow, it’s raining lightly. Like Alexis in Dover, I think by the time the proper cold uppers arrive later, it’ll be too late for us with the positioning of the precipitation.
Temp: 2.2c

Dew Point: 0.3c

[Met4Cast]

The dendritic growth layer (DGL) is a zone where snowflakes are efficiently made & can be an indication of heavy snowfall. 

The layer sits above the convective layer today across the SE within much drier air so most snow across the SE will tend to be light as a result. 

It’s a shame heights aren’t a little lower, subsidence aloft really is limiting the convective depth. 

Edited January 8 by Met4Cast

[North Easterly Breeze]

Light snow falling in SE Essex and feeling bitter

[alexisj9]

I can stop moaning now seeing flakes lol.

Now got to hope it's not distruptive, mum and uncle arriving from London today by coach for tomorrow.

Edited January 8 by alexisj9

[Challock Weather]

Moderate snow falling again here. Hope it starts to stick

 Update - it is settling!

Edited January 8 by Challock Weather
Weather report update

[Eagle Eye]

Very weak precipitation here so it's just rain at the moment, maybe a few flakes mixed in as was quite cold on my face but not sharp. 

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Very weak precipitation here so it's just rain at the moment, maybe a few flakes mixed in as was quite cold on my face but not sharp. 

Think that initial trough moving west, is the condition change point, seems colder behind it. Will probably be more later as even colder air moves west 

[danm]

Hopefully the focus shifts a little west, currently looking like a typically Kent affair.