SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

[TSNWK]

Just now, Mcconnor8 said:

Current radar of rainfall looks pretty in line with most the models to me, West and roughly in line with South Cornwall

Agree.. I'm not seeing anything at present to suggest the models have got this too far south

[snowblind]

3 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Current radar of rainfall looks pretty in line with most the models to me, West and roughly in line with South Cornwall

Yeah you watch all the model runs it looks like it's heading on a collision course then changes its mind and makes a sharp right and starts it's love affair with the channel.

[Mcconnor8]

3 minutes ago, snowblind said:

Yeah you watch all the model runs it looks like it's heading on a collision course then changes its mind and makes a sharp right and starts it's love affair with the channel.

Latest Arome doesn't make it, I would say Radar is currently slightly further North than what Arome has for the current time however.

Edited January 16 by Mcconnor8

[steveinsussex]

19 minutes ago, throwoff said:

.... does that look waaay further north than it should be to anyone else...

Don’t do it to yourself 

[snowblind]

2 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Latest Arome doesn't make it

Nor Arpege

[snowblind]

The models aren't going help us out. I think the only hope is if we all stand on the south coast and breathe in at the same time.

[Shaunado]

Met office text  forecast going for light snow flurries in southern counties later on tonight and first thing tomorrow.

[snowrye]

2 minutes ago, snowblind said:

The models aren't going help us out. I think the only hope is if we all stand on the south coast and breathe in at the same time.

What time shall we meet 

[snowrye]

38 minutes ago, PiscesStar said:

Alexis do you think Kent will see anything? 

Yes, those gits in France are not deserving of the good stuff, so it's going to be sent to the south east in large quantities, where it will be thoroughly enjoyed

[lottiekent]

6 minutes ago, snowblind said:

The models aren't going help us out. I think the only hope is if we all stand on the south coast and breathe in at the same time.

Or stood along the coast with our hoovers?

Currently 2.1c and falling, DP is -2.7c and rising. Still frost in all the shady areas the sun didn’t get to today so the ground temp is still below freezing.

[Gowon]

24 minutes ago, Darkcloud said:

Erm.....met app now has snow symbols for me from 7am?? First and only time it's showed ANY precipitation...

Dare we hope?

 

5 minutes ago, Shaunado said:

Met office text  forecast going for light snow flurries in southern counties later on tonight and first thing tomorrow.

That's probably the ppn coming down from the north, not the band from the south.

[snowrye]

Just now, lottiekent said:

Or stood along the coast with our hoovers?

Currently 2.1c and falling, DP is -2.7c and rising. Still frost in all the shady areas the sun didn’t get to today so the ground temp is still below freezing.

I've only got a Tesco hoover, shall I upgrade to a shark or dyson

[snowblind]

4 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

Or stood along the coast with our hoovers?

Currently 2.1c and falling, DP is -2.7c and rising. Still frost in all the shady areas the sun didn’t get to today so the ground temp is still below freezing.

Just need the snow to go with it.

[lawrenk]

Subtle change on the long range MO forecast, now talking about the possibility of “winds from the east” rather than the “north or east”. Perhaps indicating a Scandi High is more likely than a Greenland one?

Mark your card for around the 8th Feb onwards, as I’m away for a week in the Peak District, so you can guarantee snow showers piling in to the SE whilst it’s dry as a bone up there!

[Jan 87]

Check out the GFS 12z. Where the hell did this come from?

[Gowon]

14 minutes ago, Jan 87 said:

Check out the GFS 12z. Where the hell did this come from?

Read the post above.

[Donna3397]

I just looked at the radar, ummmmm. Might be a bit daft and it’s definitely ok for you all to say Sao but, it looks like the rain is just about to collide into the south ummmmmmm

[Mcconnor8]

Got to say it does seem to be moving in quicker than the UKMO 12z model has it for this time, whether that will lead to it being further North later on who knows!

Seeing as models seem to be quite a way out at a 5 hour lead time there definitely is scope for surprises tomorrow!

The Arome 12z seems even further out with precipitation barely reaching Brest which isn't close to reality.

Edited January 16 by Mcconnor8

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Donna3397 said:

I just looked at the radar, ummmmm. Might be a bit daft and it’s definitely ok for you all to say Sao but, it looks like the rain is just about to collide into the south ummmmmmm

Aye. If I were you (I'm not) I'd take no notice; non-existent snowfall is not at all unusual! 

[snowray]

UKMO 12z.

Here are our snow flurries right along the SE coastline.

 

[Challock Weather]

12 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Got to say it does seem to be moving in quicker than the UKMO 12z model has it for this time, whether that will lead to it being further North later on who knows!

Seeing as models seem to be quite a way out at a 5 hour lead time there definitely is scope for surprises tomorrow!

The Arome 12z seems even further out with precipitation barely reaching Brest which isn't close to reality.

There is already snow sweeping across the Finistere region into Brittany. Watching brief on northern extent...

[Mcconnor8]

3 minutes ago, Challock Weather said:

There is already snow sweeping across the Finistere region into Brittany. Watching brief on northern extent...

Certainly looking good for the South Coast at least currently given UKV did have snow just breaching it later on the run.

Edited January 16 by Mcconnor8

[Challock Weather]

Just now, Mcconnor8 said:

 

 

Yes that was the area of interest I was seeing on sat24. Has been some development south of Cork and Bantry

[Methuselah]

The lack of snow has finally got to me. . . the snowman came out of the freezer: 

[nick sussex]

The T24 hrs fax chart shows the occlusion further north than the earlier T36 hrs this morning .

T36 hrs to midday tomorrow .

T24 hrs to midday tomorrow .

Puzzling as the models so far look very underwhelming for any snow in the far s and se .

The precip ahead of that occlusion is likely to be further north than any of the models I’ve seen so far .

Very strange .

Edited January 16 by nick sussex