Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[Gizzy]

1 hour ago, NorthEastSnow said:

So as we edge closer to the cold what are people’s thoughts for this area, 

I think the favoured spots North York Moors will do well from the northerly, people inland like myself I feel will be a fustrating time.

We might also have to sit back and watch the south get buried in snow as I doubt the front will get this far North, it’s a catch 22, we either want to stay in the colder air or get loads of snow. 

Either way it beats the relentless rain. Bring on hopefully lots of snow for us Northeasterners. ️ 

Morning NES, for me there is still so much to be decided and it will be the weekend before we have some kind of 50/50 balance on how it may turn out.

Certainly this cold has been watered down over the past week or so but for us I do believe we will see some heavy snow showers by early next week, after that it will depend how far north that front gets.

After reading the mod thread and the absolute southern bias in there I hope it chucks down with rain for them, let it stall over them for days whilst we keep the cold in place ( I say that tongue in cheek as them areas certainly don't want more rain).

[NorthEastSnow]

17 minutes ago, Gizzy said:

Morning NES, for me there is still so much to be decided and it will be the weekend before we have some kind of 50/50 balance on how it may turn out.

Certainly this cold has been watered down over the past week or so but for us I do believe we will see some heavy snow showers by early next week, after that it will depend how far north that front gets.

After reading the mod thread and the absolute southern bias in there I hope it chucks down with rain for them, let it stall over them for days whilst we keep the cold in place ( I say that tongue in cheek as them areas certainly don't want more rain).

Morning Mate, 

I agree on the point in the mod thread, it's always been the same for as long as ive been a member. It gets so confusing reading it one min its amazing because it looks good for them and the other its winter over when in fact other places looks in a good position. 

Guess we just have to sit back and watch it unfold, Like I said a few days ago history tells you it mostly always gets watered down so expect nothing and hopefully be pleasantly surprised is my take on it.

Edited January 10 by NorthEastSnow

[Chris Smith]

Having lived in the South most of my life, I can confirm that many people down there are wound pretty tight. It's much more chill up here 

[shawty1984]

Originally it went from the 7th, that turned to a UK high which we were told it would still be cold at the surface, yet forecast temperatures are around 7 degrees (I know its been colder elsewhere). Then got told its from the 15th and now that 'seems' to be getting watered down the closer we get. 

I'm not expecting too much from this cold spell unless things change. 

It seems pointless reading weather models unless it's your job. It's just a hobby of leading you down the garden path. How many booms and bins are needed till people realise this.

[Gizzy]

11 minutes ago, shawty1984 said:

Originally it went from the 7th, that turned to a UK high which we were told it would still be cold at the surface, yet forecast temperatures are around 7 degrees (I know its been colder elsewhere). Then got told its from the 15th and now that 'seems' to be getting watered down the closer we get. 

I'm not expecting too much from this cold spell unless things change. 

It seems pointless reading weather models unless it's your job. It's just a hobby of leading you down the garden path. How many booms and bins are needed till people realise this.

I fully agree.

I must say I go in the mod threads and pick up little pieces, take much of it as a pinch of salt but regardless of what is said/ suggested / forecast in the thread I always find my way back to the good old met office outlook and whilst they can, and still do, get things wrong it's probably the best option available.

Oh and PS, the met office outlook is still very promising for our region, early northerly with a North easterly still being touted, albeit a dry one, but yet we all know a north easterly can get some disturbances within it and we are bang in line.

To be honest it is just good to have some interest with still a good chunk of winter still to come.

[NorthEastSnow]

Met office and mod thread suggesting the south getting a lot of snow, only a couple of solutions bring the front this far North. 

A frustrating time next week I feel, we will get snow from a front that you can guarantee turns to rain after. 

From a selfish point of view we want that low way south so we stay in the cold air which is hopefully a North East wind, Never do well in a northerly the winds very rarely straight down bringing showers further inland. 

[Chris Smith]

34 minutes ago, NorthEastSnow said:

From a selfish point of view we want that low way south so we stay in the cold air which is hopefully a North East wind, Never do well in a northerly the winds very rarely straight down bringing showers further inland. 

Yes, I was thinking the same. Another few days coming up where we can stand outside and wave at all the Cbs as they march down the North Sea toward the Netherlands.

Fingers crossed for a Scandi high for our snowman fix.

Edited January 10 by Chris Smith

[Snow-mad-dave]

I see the southerners are loving the latest runs, I'm sure half of them have bi-polar!! 

[gazzac69]

Just copied this from main model thread, This looks good to me for the NE if it comes to fruition - Please happen

 

[seabreeze86]

Two show events on the UKMO tonight for our part of the world 

[Snowmaggedon]

[Snowmaggedon]

Met Weather is already showing snow symbols for next week 

[seabreeze86]

9 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:

Met Weather is already showing snow symbols for next week 

Every chance for us next week but as ever it’s luck of the draw 

[shawty1984]

7 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

Every chance for us next week but as ever it’s luck of the draw 

I doubt it, not with winds turning westerly, anything that makes it past the pennines will be just light. 

[seabreeze86]

4 minutes ago, shawty1984 said:

I doubt it, not with winds turning westerly, anything that makes it past the pennines will be just light. 

Only makes a difference if it’s showers , if that was the case with fronts etc we would be dry as a bone most of the year 

[shawty1984]

Just now, seabreeze86 said:

Only makes a difference if it’s showers , if that was the case with fronts etc we would be dry as a bone most of the year 

We are much drier than the west and the pennies aren't we?

I can't remember a good snow event from North west/west though could be wrong.

[seabreeze86]

Just now, shawty1984 said:

We are much drier than the west and the pennies aren't we?

I can't remember a good snow event from North west/west though could be wrong.

The rain shadow effect definitely exists but can also on other occasions pep up the precipitation. Don’t think it will come into play next week the bigger concern for us on lower levels is the warm sector that is low has 

[Summer Sun]

1 hour ago, seabreeze86 said:

Two show events on the UKMO tonight for our part of the world 

I wonder if one of those is this front the beeb show moving south

Edited January 11 by Summer Sun

[seabreeze86]

14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

I wonder if one of those is this front the beeb show moving south

Yeah it’s on the ECM as well as the UKMO 

One to watch that’s for sure 

[Continental Climate]

Are we due anything from the initial northerly on sun/Monday? Looks to be mainly showers that will stay out to sea. We don't do well from a northerly!!

[seabreeze86]

1 hour ago, Continental Climate said:

Are we due anything from the initial northerly on sun/Monday? Looks to be mainly showers that will stay out to sea. We don't do well from a northerly!!

Not currently, maybe us right on the coast might catch a few. There is a front moving down which gets close but currently all models keep it out in the North Sea 

[Continental Climate]

20 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

Not currently, maybe us right on the coast might catch a few. There is a front moving down which gets close but currently all models keep it out in the North Sea 

Bugger

[NorthEastSnow]

As I thought a frustrating cold spell coming up which looks to be dry as a bone for us.
Even the models and met now don’t expect them fronts mentioning above to cause any issues here.
Guess we just have to enjoy the frosty mornings and dry weather and who knows we might get a few pop up surprises . ️ 

[Summer Sun]

beeb still going for some snow on Tuesday

[Gizzy]

46 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

beeb still going for some snow on Tuesday

Met office also along the same lines, whether that happens or not ???

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Brighter and much colder Sunday and Monday with sharp overnight frosts. Wintry showers fringing coastal areas. Potential for more widespread snowfall on Tuesday. Breezy at times with significant wind chill.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Fri 12 Jan 2024