Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

An interesting strat run to look at on Berlin in the morning too with split showing at 10/30/50 hpa at least.   

Actually, Nick, funny you should mention that, I’ve noticed some GFS runs showing a brief split at 10/30/50 hPa in FI recently, even today’s 12z shows it at 30/50, here 30 hPa, T228:

So that signal associated with the SSW that wasn’t has not completely gone away, something I think @Eagle Eye alluded to the other day.

[keithlucky]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That was yesterdays 12z run Keith 

let’s hope todays can hold that 

Map confirming with country file latest met forecast in agreement with .

Edited December 31, 2023 by keithlucky

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Actually, Nick, funny you should mention that, I’ve noticed some GFS runs showing a brief split at 10/30/50 hPa in FI recently, even today’s 12z shows it at 30/50, here 30 hPa, T228:

So that signal associated with the SSW that wasn’t has not completely gone away, something I think @Eagle Eye alluded to the other day.

Yes Mike - gfs puts humpty quickly back together again quickly whereas ec op pushes that split further by day 10. 

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Map confirming with country file latest met forecast in agreement with .

Yes I saw that - looked like the raw output from ec 00z 

the seven day chart will still be surface cold though - just not quite as cold as yesterday. 850’s will certainly be less low with the sceuro trough a bit further east and ridging to our west similar 

Edited December 31, 2023 by bluearmy

[The Enforcer]

1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

And this in itself is the problem.. 

Far too many people think the GSDM/MJO can be used for UK specific forecasting, it can’t. It’s a global diagnostic tool for broad scale patterns, macro rather than micro. 

As per Tamara’s post yesterday/the day before, the well advertised south shifted jet & subsequent current -NAO phase has occurred. 

Next week we will see amplification & cold air filtering across the UK, the high now unlikely to be amplified enough to allow for widespread deep cold/snowfall but that has never really been on offer, though granted clearly there has been a shift SE in the placement of high pressure, again. 

Getting a decent synoptic pattern really is like pulling teeth these days, it’s becoming increasingly difficult & frustrating. 

OK, but presumeably the jet has shifted south at the longitude in which the UK resides?

In terms of actual weather I can't say I have seen any difference: rain, wind, overcast when not raining and hardly any sun - the same as last week and the three weeks before that.

Edited December 31, 2023 by The Enforcer

[weathercold]

Happy New Year all! It’s all a bit meh on the model front- no deep freeze - no snow likely and a high sitting over us. This is now peak winter and we are wasting away the days with v mundane, non descript weather. Roll on summer!

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, weathercold said:

Happy New Year all! It’s all a bit meh on the model front- no deep freeze - no snow likely and a high sitting over us. This is now peak winter and we are wasting away the days with v mundane, non descript weather. Roll on summer!

Completely agree.

[Don]

51 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Personally I'm absolutely sick and tired of waiting, delays and pushbacks. A lot of us have been relentlessly watching since the start of Winter for nothing but day 10 charts, pushbacks and downgrades. It is wearing thin and I think what I say about the Hadley cell / Iberian high needs to be taken more seriously going forward.

I do share your (and many others) frustration!

[The Enforcer]

14 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

Has to be said, unfortunately, that as well as the OP (which is still a mild outlier, and at times quite an extreme one), the ensembles are also a slight downgrade on the 12z compared to other recent runs. The good news is that the downgrades mostly come later in the run, we still see the mean getting down to -5C or thereabouts around the 7th.

Definitely the way we'd rather have it to be fair, it's far better that than getting downgrades at day 7 and upgrades at day 14, which is what we see far too often.

As long as the signal around the 7th doesn't collapse we're OK I think. Will be interesting to see the ECM 12z ensembles later for comparison.

Do you know what pattern the orange red/runs on the 8th that reach about +4C are showing at that timeframe?

[Scott Ingham]

15 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Retrogression anyone… what I’m seeing there might be a brief window for wintriness further SE next weekend the high becoming more influential over UK a mid latitude block, but not sinking into Europe, the appetite for prolonged -NAO is strong as Tamara has reflected on.

That retrogression is clear. We definitely need to be patient here. Watch for that ridge up the east side of Greenland on tomorrows ECM 240

[IDO]

Although the ECM op is an outlier in the three primary metrics, and as early as D6 on 850s, synoptically, the mean and op are in unison:

ECM D10 mean:

The D10 mean, thankfully, is of some promise and is not looking like a return to the westerly onslaught of the last few weeks.

[Don]

1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

If we can’t get a favourable synoptic pattern despite favourable background forcing then I’m really at a loss & it’s a concern for future winters. 

Are we really at a point now where the only hope of getting a decent UK cold spell & decent high latitude blocking is to rely on a SSW? If that is a case then this is going to become an incredibly frustrating hobby during the winter months. 

Shame. Definitely seeing shifts in the outlook now, there’s no real denying that. 

It's an incredibly frustrating hobby already during the winter months!!  Moving forward, an SSW could well be the answer for sustained cold, which I think has been alluded to for some time now?

[Djdazzle]

Why are people so disappointed- there was never anything significant going going for a deep freeze.

A UK high isn’t a bad starting point. Let’s see where the models suggest we may go next.

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Why are people so disappointed- there was never anything significant going going for a deep freeze.

A UK high isn’t a bad starting point. Let’s see where the models suggest we may go next.

It is better than most of December yes.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

Although the ECM op is an outlier in the three primary metrics, and as early as D6 on 850s, synoptically, the mean and op are in unison:

ECM D10 mean:

The D10 mean, thankfully, is of some promise and is not looking like a return to the westerly onslaught of the last few weeks.

Yes that's a blessing there and something to look forward to.

I knew the ECM would succumb to the GFES. Got knocked down consistently but when you've been round the block like me you get to know your models.

[Harsh Climate]

7 minutes ago, Don said:

It's an incredibly frustrating hobby already during the winter months!!  Moving forward, an SSW could well be the answer for sustained cold, which I think has been alluded to for some time now?

I think let's get a nice blocking high like the ecm, plenty of frosts and low minima to lower the ground temps, then when El nino winter kicks in we should be fully primed!

A lot of people in here with no patience, let's just get the ground work in first and enjoy the ride, rather than wanting all the honey straight away!

Edited December 31, 2023 by Harsh Climate

[Nick2373]

12z I know where this is going no prolonged spell brief cold interludes with mild nothing spectacular about this output not surprised to be honest it was written on the cards this morning 

[Don]

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

It is better than most of December yes.

Just taking a step back for a moment and thinking back to the LRM's in the run up to winter.  Wasn't the overall consensus towards a back ended winter, with a mild December, transitional January, followed by a blocked February?  

Perhaps patience is a virtue on this occasion after all? 

Edited December 31, 2023 by Don

[weathercold]

15 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

That retrogression is clear. We definitely need to be patient here. Watch for that ridge up the east side of Greenland on tomorrows ECM 240

Chasing rainbows sadly - it’s fairly evident where we are ending up here. No wintry nirvana than many are after. 

[WYorksWeather]

9 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Do you know what pattern the orange red/runs on the 8th that reach about +4C are showing at that timeframe?

Those are P15 and P17.

 

Interestingly they get to mild 850s by different routes. P15 goes for the high sinking downwards, dragging in milder air around the top, so still quite cold at the surface further south but milder actually the further north you go.

P17 is just a very odd one, the UK high fails almost entirely. We then have high pressure to the NW over Greenland, and moderately high pressure over Iberia and North Africa, which creates a gap for Atlantic weather patterns to just continue streaming in.

Even P15 is not that bad from a cold perspective as there'd still be frosty nights with it. P17 is vile though.

Of course, this is just two ensemble members, so it's a low probability event in any case, colder options are now very well favoured at least from the 5th-10th or so.

For comparison, the mean at this point looks like this. Big area of high pressure centred over the top of the UK, cold and frosty for all.

[Jason M]

Maybe just wait until the morning runs to put this chase out of its misery. It does look like our old friend the 'UK High' is about to make an appearance though. Was always the form horse tbh.

If anyone is thinking of a City Break over the next few weeks, Athens is usually good at this time of year under a UK high scenario .

I do think its worth just waiting until the morning though before the last nail goes in!

Edited December 31, 2023 by Jason M

[January Snowstorm]

1 minute ago, weathercold said:

Chasing rainbows sadly - it’s fairly evident where we are ending up here. No wintry nirvana than many are after. 

Yes writing was on the wall three days ago for those who wanted to look...same as last ten years...Winter is always 10 days away....

BUT, Storm Emma hit here back in 2018 on 28th February and delivered the most prolonged snowfall I've seen in 50 years. Indeed Ireland shut down for 2 days under red snow warnings!! So on that thought I bid you a happy new year  

[WYorksWeather]

9 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

12z I know where this is going no prolonged spell brief cold interludes with mild nothing spectacular about this output not surprised to be honest it was written on the cards this morning 

To be fair, I've been keeping an eye on the ensembles, and I think Cardiff is just a bad location for this kind of setup. Areas in the north and/or east will do better out of it, with means still well below average. In terms of your location this one might well be a bust, but I think there's still interest elsewhere.

[Ali1977]

The pub run will do a great run and everyone will realise they need to collect their teddies

[Battleground Snow]

There are perhaps 10% of the EPS that broadly show a similar setup to the UKMO.

It's not totally without support, but looks unlikely.

One example attached.

Edited December 31, 2023 by Battleground Snow