Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Hot?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

Catacol

By Catacol
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share
Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion only.
Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. Or if you just want to moan about the weather or models, or would like to ramp up whatever may be on the way - there is now a dedicated ramp and moans thread.

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

Recommended Posts

E17boy Seasoned

E17boy

Posted
Posted

Looks like things are improving today after GFS getting fired yesterday. What I will be looking for in the coming days

….TO SEE IF THE COLD POOL TO OUR EAST CONTINUES GROWING 

…. WILL BE SEEING IF  THE HIGH IS UNDERCUT. THE MORE UNDERCUT WE GET THE MORE CHANCE THER IS OF THE HIGH NOT SINKING. 
 

…..WATCHING HOW MUCH ENERGY THERE IS TO OUR NORTH OR NORTHWEST AS THIS WILL IMPACT WHETHER THR HIGH CAN PUSH FURTHER NORTH

 

There is still a lot to get through in order for us to reach our final destination. Just maybe today we are finally beginning to move in the right direction. Although still far to early to throw caution out of the window.

Fingers crossed 🤞 

regards 😊😊😊😊

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted
Just now, bluearmy said:

Am I in a parallel universe?

from an Iceland high to a Scotland high and everyone seems v calm about it ! 

Yup looks like a backtrack from the UKMO to me, less of a -NAO (if we go by the metric of Spain - Iceland SLP gradient). 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted
1 minute ago, Derecho said:

image.thumb.png.013c494a40ff3a7fe9cfa738573c1e88.pngimage.thumb.png.9027ae64b3424af52ab130c43c60fe10.png

 

That's a BIG u-turn for the UKMO, bit of a disaster with the model to be honest.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Darren Bett said it may eventually turn a bit more wintry.. 😱.. think he must have been looking 👀 at the CFS! 🤩… keep it up dazza, you may not be a mild lover after all! 🥳..ps.. Happy New Year.. 🥂 

IMG_1948.thumb.png.66779ea6ea933399727712d23a1f2ba9.pngIMG_1949.thumb.png.03dd75ea01e15cc1684d3ff2d185bd32.pngIMG_1950.thumb.png.3be7525ace6e1e0906adb45dc2aa805a.pngIMG_8629.thumb.jpeg.5cac90df6315ff84123ed2f9dcf43ed7.jpeg

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Am I in a parallel universe?

from an Iceland high to a Scotland high and everyone seems v calm about it ! 

Threw some toys out yesterday morning, not going to waste any more on a slight variation within a large zone of uncertainty - still good WAA there for the T168, I think avoiding the UK high in the first place was a ship that had sailed yesterday, although this morning’s UKMO and this evening ICON give the evidence against that.

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Big Gally Aficionado

Big Gally

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow
  • Location: Glasgow
Posted

I think the models are starting to line up more than yesterday. Looks like high pressure building definitely in line with the met office wording. The good news is the met do mention snow. Beats all this rain mild muck we have endured! ❄️❄️⛄️🥶

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
  • Popular Post
Posted
2 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

That's a BIG u-turn for the UKMO, bit of a disaster with the model to be honest.

That's a bit of an over reaction if ever i have heard one ..................Disaster LOL

  • Like 12
Link to comment
Share on other sites
January Snowstorm Accomplished

January Snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted

Worth noting the gfs is feeding quite cold air in to the South of the high. Its quite a bit colder than the 06z run!! Frosty nights for sure down South

image.thumb.png.8f900d284bfce979998d2df498ccc715.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted
Just now, MJB said:

That's a bit of an over reaction if ever i have heard one ..................Disaster LOL

How isn't it? It's been at the top of the pile for a good week, while others have gone for a UK high. Now it's following the others

Link to comment
Share on other sites
winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted
Just now, MJB said:

That's a bit of an over reaction if ever i have heard one ..................Disaster LOL

And will change a few times before next weekend lol

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
Just now, Neilsouth said:

How isn't it? It's been at the top of the pile for a good week, while others have gone for a UK high. Now it's following the others

Hang on a minute GFS went off on one completely whereas UK has stuck to it's guns with a HP close to in or around the UK, the final position was never going to be a given and probably still isn't.

Disaster it most certainly isnt  

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

The saving grace on the UKMO is the arctic heights, much better than the GFS and may give the high the lift it needs to advect cold air to the UK.
 

Not the start to the 12z we wanted, but there is enough uncertainty across the models to allow for improvements. 

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Drifter Rising Star

Drifter

Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
Posted

Do I hang around on here and watch the knee jerk reactions? This won’t be the final outcome. 

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Gem at day 8 sending heights into Greenland - so much more to come I think - in a good way 

IMG_2230.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

Moving on, GEM is already getting the second stage underway at T204, moving the UK high towards Greenland, good run this:

IMG_8239.thumb.png.e8aaaeb612295a94fa8de5da36df15e2.png

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

GEM similar with the UK high but looks to be re-amplifying and retrogressing to GL! Vortex in tatters. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted
5 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

How isn't it? It's been at the top of the pile for a good week, while others have gone for a UK high. Now it's following the others

ECM 144z hardly a disaster and not UKMO like

image.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted

GEM doing ok

image.thumb.png.e086fbb0c10004e3153602c764098232.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

GEM will be AMAZING 

IMG_2231.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
AO- Aficionado

AO-

Posted
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Cold with a lot of snow
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
Posted (edited)

Happy New Year everyone,

Remarkable difference imo already at 72 between GFS and UKMO and EC. both consistent, but very different. GFSOPEU12_72_1.thumb.png.f63a18efe405582ee7b86486f9bed242.png

UKMOPEU12_72_1.thumb.png.51a11d0f998aef9284fb27a278ab70d7.png

 

Edit: different path towards the same outcomes eventually. GFS certainly moving towards the European models. 

Edited by AO-
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Alexis Seasoned

Alexis

Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
Posted
1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

ECM 144z hardly a disaster and not UKMO like

image.png

That's the old run. New one is 6-7pm.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
5 hours ago, Cloud 10 said:

Fantastic EPS this morning for week 2 and well worth a look some of the ENS beyond that.

 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=5&mode=11&ech=360

 

eps_z500a_nhem_47.thumb.png.f1336f87c0e519bba1bdd58606e0189d.png

This is the period I’ve been keen on! Lovely that!

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GEM will be AMAZING 

IMG_2231.png

Indeed - I would love to know if that split up at 50 hPa and 30 hPa is opening up wide on this run - I think that feature might be an integral part of opening the door to high latitudes.  Don’t think we can see those charts for the GEM unfortunately.  

Edited by Mike Poole
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted

Will GFS retrogress

image.thumb.png.e1c9676edc1f5c480f1cedf7c1ef7186.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...