Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Womble]

2 minutes ago, WinterOf47 said:

It seems like one run of the Euro and this entire forum has a collective orgasm…and all over a few snow showers over Kent! Let’s hope this pans out or there will be a lot of disappointment.

Absolutely. I love the enthusiasm and passion in this forum but a tad OTT with talk of areas being burried and UK shut down.

Still bag this run though. It’s a million miles away from the mild dross we’ve had.

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

ECM op was a cold outlier..but the mean does get down to -6 and lower

No it wasn't..

Colder end of the pack but certainly not an outlier. Best EPS mean of the season with a strong day 10 retrogression signal. 

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, AFCBSNOW said:

I got caught in Gravesend for that. I couldn't get my car out of the Premier Inn car park.

I am not a big expert on the South East streamer but I do know that it is the opposite of the Mersey streamer - E/ENE winds build precipitation Essex / London and a separate feature into North Kent, whilst a straight NE wind becomes more of a central Kent feature and Kent clipper on a NE/NNE wind, also dependent on positioning of core of lowest heights as this will shift the convection on latitudinal plane.

[Gregulator]

I've told the wife now.....

 

[John88B]

Interesting model watching today with some cracking runs for lovers of cold.

The model output along with updates from the met office and BBC weather presenters has me hoping we're on the cusp of a half decent cold spell. The length of the cold and depth of cold still to be nailed down.

In the meantime a respite from the constant wet and mild weather down here as the weather gradually cools.

Plenty to be positive about for those of a cold persuasion as we head through January.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

20cm+ in Kent from ECM12Z.

There’s a lot of water to flow under the bridge first.

Let’s get to Thursday unscathed first!

If the ECM snow charts show decent snowfall come Thursday then we can get excited!

Currently there’s not much widespread snowfall showing.

Edited January 1 by prolongedSnowLover

[AO-]

54 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

I might have to toast the ECM output tonight. Let's hope it's not an outlier.

It is not an outlier. Great run with enough possibilities. Even on the long term... 

Edited January 1 by AO-

[Met4Cast]

2 minutes ago, Gregulator said:

I've told the wife now.....

 

Worthy of a ban from this forum, surely?

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

There’s a lot of water to flow under the bridge first.

Let’s get to Thursday unscathed first!

If the ECM snow charts show snowfall come Thursday then we can get excited!

On that particular run easily 10-20cm localized North Kent. I have spoken to Mr S who agrees.

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

No it wasn't..

Colder end of the pack but certainly not an outlier. Best EPS mean of the season with a strong day 10 retrogression signal. 

I looked on two the weatheroutlook site..and it was an outlier between the 9th and 10th..the location london..but yea the mean is very good!

[Kentspur]

7 minutes ago, AFCBSNOW said:

I got caught in Gravesend for that. I couldn't get my car out of the Premier Inn car park.

Oh better than me- got stuck for 6 hours trying to get to work had to turn around then wait for a tractor to clear the road and then the next day my car head gasket blew up  

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

On that particular run easily 10-20cm localized North Kent. I have spoken to Mr S who agrees.

Most people don’t live in North Kent.

[Kentspur]

1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Most people don’t live in North Kent.

I do lol well NW Kent haha

[Scott Ingham]

4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

No it wasn't..

Colder end of the pack but certainly not an outlier. Best EPS mean of the season with a strong day 10 retrogression signal. 

Without a doubt the best EPS mean this winter so far! 
 

The most pleasing aspect is the retrogression signal as it tentatively shows we’re on the right path as far as deciphering the way forward! 
 

It can test your own confidence in your methods when you stick to your guns but charts aren’t yet responding to what you feel is the most logical way forward!

[KyleHenry]

25 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I think the eps clusters will have some stonkers 

For what it’s worth, final confirmation has to be sealed by the 150hPa otherwise HP will never hold in place. What do you know? it does this time. 
 

If TPV vacates east Asia and turns slack in that area then this episode will be colossal in terms of cold/snow but also brutal.

 

[TSNWK]

11 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I am not a big expert on the South East streamer but I do know that it is the opposite of the Mersey streamer - E/ENE winds build precipitation Essex / London and a separate feature into North Kent, whilst a straight NE wind becomes more of a central Kent feature and Kent clipper on a NE/NNE wind, also dependent on positioning of core of lowest heights as this will shift the convection on latitudinal plane.

I'm a huge expert of South East streaming... Thames Streamer North West Kent....;)

The more northerly component then further south east towards Dover.. 

The holy grail is uppers 15 degree colder than SST for convention and east North east.  The air then converages up the Thames estuary and when forced to lift  by North downs all bets are off... 87 91 97 / 10 / 18 are good examples.. at present I don't see much beyond flurry and grains.. need a bit more on uppers

Edited January 1 by TSNWK

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

I looked on two the weatheroutlook site..and it was an outlier between the 9th and 10th..the location london..but yea the mean is very good!

 

[Metwatch]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

The holy grail is uppers 15 degree colder than SST for convention

Current sea temperatures for reference:

About a degree or 2 above average.

Edited January 1 by Metwatch

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T264+:

Following on from the previous timeframe there isn’t a lot of difference at day 11.  I think we are in a strong position now regarding the interim high between UK and Iceland, and then retrogression to Greenland.

From then on, it gets rather uncertain.  All charts are either -NAO (green) or Atlantic Ridge (purple), you can see the difference in patterns is large within that envelope, but the vortex looks marmalised whichever route we go down.  

Edited January 1 by Mike Poole

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

1 hour ago, Snowmut said:

 If ever there was a chart to get you in the mood to watch the big snow of 47 on channel 5 tonight, that is it!

What time is this on!? 

[Norrance]

1 hour ago, Derecho said:

Steady on.... it's a chilly easterly yes but that is an exaggeration. Remember the February 2021 easterly?

Perhaps there would be a bit more then shown here but SSTs are a bit colder then in December... and you'd need uppers to be a bit colder or a more cyclonic flow to get big amounts from this particular set up.

This is not accurate. Shows no snow in my location but here is what fell in my front garden. 

[WYorksWeather]

Yep, the ECM 12z is a definite upgrade on OP, mean and ensembles compared to the 00z. Even with the limited amount of the ensemble currently on Wetterzentrale, you can see that there are actually no model runs at all now above average when we get to the 7th January. That's a very strong signal for something that is still almost a week away.

[Challock Weather]

10 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I am not a big expert on the South East streamer but I do know that it is the opposite of the Mersey streamer - E/ENE winds build precipitation Essex / London and a separate feature into North Kent, whilst a straight NE wind becomes more of a central Kent feature and Kent clipper on a NE/NNE wind, also dependent on positioning of core of lowest heights as this will shift the convection on latitudinal plane.

The NE streamer set up here early December. Probably no more than a four mile swathe but we did benefit up here on the Downs 

[Met4Cast]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Without a doubt the best EPS mean this winter so far! 
 

The most pleasing aspect is the retrogression signal as it tentatively shows we’re on the right path as far as deciphering the way forward! 
 

It can test your own confidence in your methods when you stick to your guns but charts aren’t yet responding to what you feel is the most logical way forward!

For sure.. 

Definitely had one of those wobbles yesterday & was questioning what the point of spending hours learning about the teleconnections & drivers if the broadscale pattern doesn't end up aligning with them was but the trends today have pushed me back on track 

I think I need to perhaps take a step back at times and watch how things unfold rather than getting sucked in to each days model output, but that's easier said than done..

[TSNWK]

Just now, Metwatch said:

Current sea temperatures for reference:

Thanks.. so -10 uppers will do it.. I prefer a little more to mitigate the modified sea air... but inland with dry air this time of year helps