Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Mike Poole]

9 minutes ago, Premiere Neige said:

Looking very much like the charts many of the long range forecast models were churning out through the summer and autumn...

Yes, no wonder we’re getting a bit tired, this chase has been going for months, I joined it in July (I wasn’t the first) on the back of the ‘unusual’ output from the seasonal models back then.  It is coming to the crunch now!

Extended clusters T264+, remember this timeframe quite uncertain on the 0z:

COULD NOT BE BETTER!

Say no more.

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Your post prompted me to look for model output discussion threads from around that time... for some reason the nearest one I could find is this one, from six months later, but it is still interesting to see:

Very interesting some names on here back then which are still around..amazing thanks for that!

[LRD]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks like the signal for retrogression is growing tonight..

EC46 might reveal more...

EC46 headline - consistent.

Positive height anomalies still showing to our north-west throughout most of the run and even appearing over Scandi into Feb. I know pressure anomaly charts can be misleading but it still looks pretty good 

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

I was hoping that the ECM op is on the less cold side of the ens. London 850s/pressure:

It is, as usual, an outlier, so the potential for upgrades, though limited by the nature of the synoptic; a UK high.

 

A mean 3c colder than the op, we can pretty much ignore for now I think. I Expect further upgrades overnight - with the easterly (although just colder and dry mainly, but poss some snow in the south and east) then a quicker transition to a big Arctic high. Then 6 weeks of big freeze off to top the anti freeze up now

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, no wonder we’re getting a bit tired, this chase has been going for months, I joined it in July (I wasn’t the first) on the back of the ‘unusual’ output from the seasonal models back then.  It is coming to the crunch now!

Extended clusters T264+, remember this timeframe quite uncertain on the 0z:

COULD NOT BE BETTER!

Say no more.

 

That’s the best cluster posted this winter and by some distance as well! Absolute classic set up for severe cold!

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, LRD said:

EC46 headline - consistent.

Positive height anomalies still showing to our north-west throughout most of the run and even appearing over Scandi into Feb. I know pressure anomaly charts can be misleading but it still looks pretty good 

I’m glad to see that they are finally showing over scandi for February. This is what I told @Catacol would be my favoured next step from Greenland heights. Greenland/Scandi/Greenland…. Very 196……..? 

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

They don't listen mate uto/utm

 

 

 

 

 

It’s draining but everyone’s entitled to their own opinion! UTM/UTO (both of us improving )

[LRD]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I’m glad to see that they are finally showing over scandi for February. This is what I told @Catacol would be my favoured next step from Greenland heights. Greenland/Scandi/Greenland…. Very 196……..? 

It’s draining but everyone’s entitled to their own opinion! UTM/UTO (both of us improving )

Indeed. It's a weak signal as you'd expect this far out but something to keep an eye on 

[Ali1977]

For fun here is the KMA - to be fair the whole run is good. Better early doors too

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, LRD said:

Indeed. It's a weak signal as you'd expect this far out but something to keep an eye on 

Fits an MJO signal to enter cod and quickly into Phase 6 off the back of a still reasonable GWO Phase and associated Glaam as I don’t expect these to drop a huge amount before being on the way up again 

[Premiere Neige]

4 minutes ago, LRD said:

EC46 headline - consistent.

Positive height anomalies still showing to our north-west throughout most of the run and even appearing over Scandi into Feb. I know pressure anomaly charts can be misleading but it still looks pretty good 

Ties in with Tamara's thoughts from yesterday (I think it was yesterday.....lost track of the days over the festive period). Anyway, she mentioned heights shuffling between Greenland, Iceland and Scandinavia as I recall...

[Duane S.]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, no wonder we’re getting a bit tired, this chase has been going for months, I joined it in July (I wasn’t the first) on the back of the ‘unusual’ output from the seasonal models back then.  It is coming to the crunch now!

Extended clusters T264+, remember this timeframe quite uncertain on the 0z:

COULD NOT BE BETTER!

Say no more.

 

Incredible set .

Thanks for doing these Mike by the way. They are an often overlooked tool when it comes to reading the charts.

There’s a tad more to this than individual Ops and the ens. Taking in the respective clusters should always be included as part of the chart suite analysis 

[Rain All Night]

Today:

Day 3:

Day 7:

Day 10:

Sweet!

Edited January 2 by RainAllNight

[bluearmy]

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks like the signal for retrogression is growing tonight..

EC46 might reveal more...

Anyone else having an  issue  with ec website ?

[northwestsnow]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Anyone else having an  issue  with ec website ?

Yeah..

Not working ..

[Singularity]

Important to view the Sun-Tue ‘might be’ easterly as independent from the -NAO driven one being signalled for mid-month.

By comparison it’s a lot more fragile, so to speak, due to it depending on precisely how the high shapes up and orientates. Still feasible that it could do so in a manner that allows a decent cut-back of low 850s across S UK; we may as well pick options out of a hat regarding such a highly sensitive detail.

As far as I can deduce, the subsequent retrogression signal is connected to a combo of the minor SSW and lagged response to MJO phase 3 coupled with AAM not falling very low due to El Niño.

At this lead time the signals from those will dominate how the modelling behaves so yes, as always, well run the ‘finer details gauntlet’ nearer the time - but it’ll take a more substantial spanner in the works to totally derail it, compared to this coming Sun-Tue.

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Anyone else having an  issue  with ec website ?

Yeah I am mate

[LRD]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Anyone else having an  issue  with ec website ?

Yes. I just managed to catch the latest run before it crashed

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yeah..

Not working ..

 

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Yeah I am mate

@LRD managed to get in there before it went awol 

[That ECM]

14 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I’m glad to see that they are finally showing over scandi for February. This is what I told @Catacol would be my favoured next step from Greenland heights. Greenland/Scandi/Greenland…. Very 196……..? 

It’s draining but everyone’s entitled to their own opinion! UTM/UTO (both of us improving )

The high could do a shuffle?

 

“A shuffling high”. The best term I’ve heard in a long time. @Tamara
 

Edited January 2 by That ECM

[Duane S.]

This fresh in from the EC headquarters…

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

The high could do a shuffle?

 

“A shuffling high”. The best term I’ve heard in a long time. @Tamara
 

yeah the year of the shuffling high! Pretty much the holy grail if the jigsaw pieces fall in the right places! We have an atmosphere ripe for it right into the heart of February!

[feb1991blizzard]

back

29th jan > last chart

Edited January 2 by feb1991blizzard

[LRD]

It's back up. Last 2 weeks

And aside from an unclear week of 22 Jan, it looks pretty good in the shorter term too

Edited January 2 by LRD

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Boom boom boom let me hear say wayo...wayo! I say boom boom boom the cold is coming....coming...

Once again simply sterling.  Me and the dog have loved this roll out...never mind the op, the ens are amazing.

Breath easily you lot....

Seriously folks I need an horlix and an early night...I think me eyes are going as well..was a real struggle seeing the full graphics on those ens.. First ya hair goes then ya eyes...then ya bloody faculties...loved every minute of it though! Always a pleasure though.

Edited January 2 by MATTWOLVES 3

[northwestsnow]

EC 46 !!!!!

BLOCKING GALORE