Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[mbrothers]

Just now, okidoke said:

It's never a good sign when the models keep pushing the cold back .. we never learn

Do u not think the models are looking good? 

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, okidoke said:

It's never a good sign when the models keep pushing the cold back .. we never learn

We need those mean charts to still be there in 3/4 days time

[Met4Cast]

I'm really not seeing how anything has been pushed back? Quite literally nothing has changed from yesterdays model outputs. This is the issue with constant discussions about Iberian heights and imaginary Atlantic pushes, it just confuses people.

Everything is ticking along nicely.

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

That's ugly and it's a real possibility.

Not really and way out in La la land.I was just replying to those claiming a western based NAO

[Phil Blake]

48 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

The charts are bang on for the 15th nothing is being delayed! Jesus Christ this forum has gone downhill!

I think people need to bang their heads off your drum. It's hard reading this thread sometimes. 

The position of the high is still not nailed and output will reflect this. Left a bit. North a bit. Right a bit. The general theme is the same. High pressure generally over or close to the UK before retrogressing mid month. And again the position of the high as it moves NW will not be nailed. It'll be best to view all outputs including means/ensembles to get a broad view. 

Of course where HP settles is up for grabs and wherever it does could have large ramifications on the surface conditions. 

And in any case mother nature will do whatever she pleases so pointless getting hung up on ever single deterministic run

[TEITS]

I am sure some newcomers must be utterly confused by reading this thread this morning. So here is my assessment of what the models actually show rather than what may go  wrong.

Firstly very good agreement it will turn colder this weekend. Probably not cold enough for snow showers but still uncertain as the mean is at -8C but the ensembles vary between -5 to -10C. Regardless of snow I think many will welcome this change in our weather pattern.

Note the increase in the upper temps for next week. This is the transitional phase before we see blocking develop over Greenland. Much of next week is likely to be settled, cold, frosty but locations such as Wales, W Midlands may struggle to reach much above zero during the day. Freezing fog could be a big issue.

Now onto my favourite part and that is the following weekend 12th Jan. The GEFS/ECM mean is fantastic with regards to blocking over Greenland. A SLP mean of 1030-1035mb in Iceland is incredible and is comparable to what we witnessed prior to the 2010 cold spell.

The error that some are making is by not viewing the models from a N Hemisphere perspective. The greenland high is as a result of what is happening to the PV and pressure increasing over the Arctic. The Greenland HP isn't because of our high pressure over the UK this weekend moving into Greenland.

I shall just add that in 2010 the models made a right drama over the Greenland high and a W based NAO. For many runs they had this too far W with the low sinking S in the Atlantic rather than the UK. Thankfully as we know this was corrected E.

[winterof79]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

I'm really not seeing how anything has been pushed back? Quite literally nothing has changed from yesterdays model outputs. This is the issue with constant discussions about Iberian heights and imaginary Atlantic pushes, it just confuses people.

Everything is ticking along nicely.

Exactly.The post you were replying to is a perfect example of how the Model output discussion is going.

People posting stating as fact with no model evidence.

[Ice Day]

Well, I have just caught up on the overnight musings on this thread, and let's just say that's 20 minutes of my life that I'll never get back!  Perhaps the mods could consider a daily maximum of posts on here during busier times to help it not get clogged up with tit-for-tat arguments etc?  

Anyway, the mods have a difficult enough time on here when potential cold is on the cards so I'll shut up and concentrate on the overnight runs instead.  In a nutshell, they're very good.

ECM day 10 mean has an unusually strong signal

GFS day 11 and 12 means have a very similar profile with again, an unusually strong signal

 

I think the nearer-term UK high with some cold nights and dry days will do me just fine for now, given the deluge we've all had to endure.  Onto the 6z's

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Exactly.The post you were replying to is a perfect example of how the Model output discussion is going.

People posting stating as fact with no model evidence.

To say nothing has changed from yesterday is inaccurate, I have posted clear changes between yesterday and today's ensemble means, minor changes yes but affect the balance of the outlook slightly.

[trickydicky]

Forgive a noob post a minute.

What has struck me recently is that low pressure that is more or less stuck over the Isle of Lewis. If you look through the Weather History thread on here you can see that we used to get genuine cold spells - the type we’d chew our arms off for now - a few times a decade, and a lot of them seemed to start with low pressure diving down into Europe and cold air being dragged west. That cold air is there now. Its cold in European Russia and Scandinavia. But the low pressure just sits there, totally unmoved by our desires. Why, are the mountains in Scotland significantly higher than they were 150 years ago?!
 

[Troubleatmill]

37 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Still a great chart though , and with that amount of blocking it can’t be called west based - more full on arctic destruction

West based -nao = blocking in the Western North Atlantic Ali, so it's certainly possible. I'm as hopeful as you for a memorable event but still very cautious.

Edited January 3 by Troubleatmill

[TEITS]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

To say nothing has changed from yesterday is inaccurate, I have posted clear changes between yesterday and today's ensemble means, minor changes yes but affect the balance of the outlook slightly.

Sorry you are wrong based on the ECM.

Todays ECM mean at +216.

Yesterdays 0Z at +240.

[Yorkshirepudding]

1 hour ago, Harveyslugger said:

Since I was 5 years old in 2010.how long was the chase before the cold spell started?

It started in fl beyond D10 then counted down, Chopped and changed a little run by run similar to this current potential cold spell but always came back to a lot of Boom charts. Truly amazing model watching that year as for once something in fl similar to this counted down and actually came off. 
 

Edited January 3 by Yorkshirepudding

[John88B]

3 minutes ago, TEITS said:

I am sure some newcomers must be utterly confused by reading this thread this morning. So here is my assessment of what the models actually show rather than what may go  wrong.

Firstly very good agreement it will turn colder this weekend. Probably not cold enough for snow showers but still uncertain as the mean is at -8C but the ensembles vary between -5 to -10C. Regardless of snow I think many will welcome this change in our weather pattern.

Note the increase in the upper temps for next week. This is the transitional phase before we see blocking develop over Greenland. Much of next week is likely to be settled, cold, frosty but locations such as Wales, W Midlands may struggle to reach much above zero during the day. Freezing fog could be a big issue.

Now onto my favourite part and that is the following weekend 12th Jan. The GEFS/ECM mean is fantastic with regards to blocking over Greenland. A SLP mean of 1030-1035mb in Iceland is incredible and is comparable to what we witnessed prior to the 2010 cold spell.

The error that some are making is by not viewing the models from a N Hemisphere perspective. The greenland high is as a result of what is happening to the PV and pressure increasing over the Arctic. The Greenland HP isn't because of our high pressure over the UK this weekend moving into Greenland.

I shall just add that in 2010 the models made a right drama over the Greenland high and a W based NAO. For many runs they had this too far W with the low sinking S in the Atlantic rather than the UK. Thankfully as we know this was corrected E.

Great Post, thank you Also from what I remember of 2010, the met office were very confident of it turning much colder well in advance of it actually happening despite some model volatility. So similar to now, not saying anything like 2010 is on the cards mind

 

[Flub136]

Oh hello! Is this the awaited warming taking shape??

[Lukesluckybunch]

Slight upgrade on icon..colder uppers coming in

[SnowBorder]

Steady as she goes for this mornings output. Minor changes as to be expected, but certainly not a capitulation to mild SW’s.
More runs needed. 

[Troubleatmill]

3 minutes ago, Yorkshirepudding said:

It started in fl beyond D10 then counted down, Chopped and changed a little run by run similar to this current potential cold spell but always came back to a lot of Boom charts. Truly amazing model watching that year as for once something in fl similar to this actually came off. 
 

Yes spot on YP, I remember it well too! It was one of those very few occasions where the GFS Op picked something up way out and stuck with it until it actually happend

[Kasim Awan]

4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Kasim man go outside and get some air 

It's mild air so wont bother. Only like long walks in the cold.

[BleakMidwinter]

17 minutes ago, TEITS said:

I am sure some newcomers must be utterly confused by reading this thread this morning. So here is my assessment of what the models actually show rather than what may go  wrong.

Firstly very good agreement it will turn colder this weekend. Probably not cold enough for snow showers but still uncertain as the mean is at -8C but the ensembles vary between -5 to -10C. Regardless of snow I think many will welcome this change in our weather pattern.

Note the increase in the upper temps for next week. This is the transitional phase before we see blocking develop over Greenland. Much of next week is likely to be settled, cold, frosty but locations such as Wales, W Midlands may struggle to reach much above zero during the day. Freezing fog could be a big issue.

Now onto my favourite part and that is the following weekend 12th Jan. The GEFS/ECM mean is fantastic with regards to blocking over Greenland. A SLP mean of 1030-1035mb in Iceland is incredible and is comparable to what we witnessed prior to the 2010 cold spell.

The error that some are making is by not viewing the models from a N Hemisphere perspective. The greenland high is as a result of what is happening to the PV and pressure increasing over the Arctic. The Greenland HP isn't because of our high pressure over the UK this weekend moving into Greenland.

I shall just add that in 2010 the models made a right drama over the Greenland high and a W based NAO. For many runs they had this too far W with the low sinking S in the Atlantic rather than the UK. Thankfully as we know this was corrected E.

Thankyou!!!!!!!

 

 

 I have been following these discussions for over a dozen years now and have never had so much difficulty finding reliable information about the interpretation of data. 
 

 

[winterof79]

7 minutes ago, Flub136 said:

Oh hello! Is this the awaited warming taking shape??

Looking good.

The strat having undergone a major warming as we post has a little kick applied whilst down from the warming face of doom

 

[CameronWS]

I’ve seen a lot of Model vs Model comparisons for verification rates… but how much better do Op’s verify compared to their other ensemble members?

[Kentspur]

Remember we were due a white Christmas 2years back then this happened I wonder what effect it may have this time on the models?

Edited January 3 by Kentspur

[northwestsnow]

So..

It's going to dry out ..

It's defo going colder with frosts around..

That much we know, NWP now figuring out if the anticyclone retrogresses ,and the complex fall out from retrogression.

We just got to wait ,and hope...

 

 

[IDO]

 

18 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Sorry you are wrong based on the ECM.

Todays ECM mean at +216.

Yesterdays 0Z at +240.

  I have to agree with Kasim here and if we are talking about cold air, then best to post the 850s for a day-to-day comparison:

Today versus yesterday, a clear delay in colder uppers aligned with a general downgrade with pre-D10 cold. You can even see the 0c therm much further east, which highlights my earlier post where the Asia/Russia trough has edged east.