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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

Catacol

By Catacol
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion only.
Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. Or if you just want to moan about the weather or models, or would like to ramp up whatever may be on the way - there is now a dedicated ramp and moans thread.

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

Impressive cross polar flow on this run with retrogression brought forward a day or two!

gfsnh-0-210.png

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MattH
MattH

Hi. I just wanted to create a post from an educational perspective and also be a point of reference regarding the importance of the GSDM and the AAM on the medium and long term. Hopefully, anyone

MATTWOLVES 3
MATTWOLVES 3

Good God...its been my dad's funeral today..just a small service for close family as he didn't want a big fuss! This may seen insensitive me posting weather charts at such a time..but I will tell you

snowice
snowice

Premature ecmjulcation.

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

The models now agree on an easterly early next week, but we need heights to be a little lower and the cold air to be a touch colder to develop anything other than a few light wintry flurries and even then the winds look like backing towards the south east which will bring drier and sunnier conditions anyway. Next week does look quite raw for many, especially when the wind picks up early next week.

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

I think we really have lift off at 216!

image.thumb.png.627b582ef133e00aecfc801ad2d9403d.png

Cold uppers flooding south. *Should* be an excellent FI coming up (I'll take the blame when it goes wrong)

image.thumb.png.b4def1e20461e636f6a549dae975d517.png

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NorthYorksWeather Experienced

NorthYorksWeather

Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
Posted

GFS 12z  222hrs looking much cleaner retrogression compared to 6z. 

. IMG_7482.thumb.png.5b1c8e5d7c7ebab4c2cae860fd1c30ae.png

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
5 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Not according to the Extra skew-t for dover?

image.thumb.png.b33d065f394aa52914a77797ff632741.png

 

Do you think people tend to just look at uppers and not the 500-850mb profile enough John?, -8c with 540(ish) dam heights wont cut it in my opinion, and that is assuming its snow that does fall when there is precipitation which is far from certain.

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Drifter Rising Star

Drifter

Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.191a94deb304036d1f1b81470f23bf8b.png

Well....

Sobering 🤣

In all seriousness, excellent run 

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seabreeze86 Accomplished

seabreeze86

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
Posted

GFS looks phenomenal this afternoon . Greenland high now looking odds on

IMG_0185.png

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Shunter Enthusiast

Shunter

Posted
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, Snow in Winter
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
Posted

UK Cold weather alert issued from 6th - 9th January.

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Mcconnor8 Seasoned

Mcconnor8

Posted
  • Location: Lancing, South coast
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing, South coast
Posted
Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

Oh gfs..what are you doing at day 10..this looks perfect!😍

Going to have seriously cold uppers over us in a couple more days of it

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Author
Posted

Jan 9 2024

image.thumb.png.3551157af1cf3fc614cfff0a2847ecd5.png

 

Feb 7 1991

image.thumb.png.331e88a93d3e7fc506739e9e77138a7a.png

Could just do with the models picking up and growing the little kink in the 2024 isobar over the Massif Central....

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Popular Post
Posted

I know the attention is on the quite frankly insane det run but the GEFS mean now has an easterly flow across the UK from the initial high so an improvement across the board. I'd expect to see a much colder ENS suite in general here.

gensnh-31-1-102.thumb.png.5adc4a3feef75d3c341458b5703928f1.png

Boom boom boom.

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
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Posted

Going against my wisdom to look too far ahead, but @Mike Poole analogy of a nice starter next week, but the mains to follow could be even better ...

GFSOPEU12_237_1.thumb.png.b0c1470951b948eab5b061aa98b80d0f.pngGFSOPEU12_237_2.thumb.png.40c3398684fe87065e0a198a9953e98c.png

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted
5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Impressive cross polar flow on this run with retrogression brought forward a day or two!

gfsnh-0-210.png

Brought forward ....to the dungeons with you sir

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Author
Posted
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.191a94deb304036d1f1b81470f23bf8b.png

Well....

Hehe - what did I tell you.....

Now then.....will it????

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Lukesluckybunch Accomplished

Lukesluckybunch

Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted
1 minute ago, Catacol said:

Jan 9 2024

image.thumb.png.3551157af1cf3fc614cfff0a2847ecd5.png

 

Feb 7 1991

image.thumb.png.331e88a93d3e7fc506739e9e77138a7a.png

Could just do with the models picking up and growing the little kink in the 2024 isobar over the Massif Central....

Not quite ..but still pretty good,look at that size of that high 1991!

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NorthYorksWeather Experienced

NorthYorksWeather

Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
Posted

GEM at day 10. Taking a slightly different route but I image it will get there eventually. IMG_7483.thumb.png.51767422e1072bac3c5c2e0cb4355f07.png

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted
1 minute ago, Catacol said:

Jan 9 2024

image.thumb.png.3551157af1cf3fc614cfff0a2847ecd5.png

 

Feb 7 1991

image.thumb.png.331e88a93d3e7fc506739e9e77138a7a.png

Could just do with the models picking up and growing the little kink in the 2024 isobar over the Massif Central....

One of my favourite spells, the powder snow even made it to Merseyside, closing schools for a lovely nice long weekend of sledging!

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Cold Winter Night Accomplished

Cold Winter Night

Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
Posted

GFS 240h

That deep cold over N-Scandinavia heading SW and the pool is growing.
What a run, very clean.

3jan-GFS12-240.thumb.png.0a94495cab9bb35a345c8b14a79d2f47.png3jan-GFS12-T850-240.thumb.png.7bc6f9fc64aefdf6e1625d7cd49b0cfa.png

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Big Gally Aficionado

Big Gally

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow
  • Location: Glasgow
Posted

Seems to be each run getting better and better. We do really well from a straight easterly. Still a lot to be resolved but it’s getting exciting! You can precip already arriving as early as the 7th. Come on!!!

402B5177-94E9-463A-BA89-B119F98CAD58.thumb.png.5e2a3d918775ef9e3c93c999c62e2a88.png

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Author
Posted
2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Hehe - what did I tell you.....

Now then.....will it????

Ha - @northwestsnow - you can come out from behind the sofa now 🙂

image.thumb.png.7072e00b8d33f526e7f027ee5d04a823.png

It's a Bob the Builder run for sure.

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

At day 11, using my best John Motson impression, 'look at that, just look at that'!!!

image.thumb.png.7f7e8a860db2bb17ca7dc08209716f39.pngimage.thumb.png.dfd605637091d54c230f9cb0107fa6a4.png

And a very close match to the GFS and ECM means at the same time from this morning's runs.

My word!

 

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