Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Froze were the Days]

7 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Would like to think we will be under -8/10 uppers..what's your guess?

I wouldn't like to guess as I'm not sure what D11 would look like but with a long sea track probably -8/10 Scotland -4 Southern England...all conjecture of course.

Edited January 3 by Froze were the Days

[Panayiotis]

23 minutes ago, booferking said:

The link up is perfection doesn't get any better than that really.

Although 10 days away, we just need to be careful with the heights being pulled from Africa (which moves over France then over us). For the real cold pattern this would need to be cut off ASAP otherwise there is a risk for high pressure developing over the UK which would shunt the cold away. 

[The Enforcer]

What are GEFS12z P10 and P19 seeing?

[Met4Cast]

We can add MOGREPS to the list of models deepening the cold. 

[Chesil View]

Excellent set of 12z runs from a coldies perspective. Good agreement from gfs and ecm and ukmo in line with what happens up to 168. As I said last night it's goid to see upgrades as the landing point nears.

[SqueakheartLW]

Come on, we have to get GEM P14 in please

At least it's not +384h away like these sorts of charts usually are but this one is only 10 days away. Can it end this way?

Also wanted to show you this freaky GEM 00z chart for +384h away. The 2m temp min is mind boggling for Scunthorpe and would break our overnight min no doubt

P14 is showing -17.7C as a 2m temp min on P14

However the 500mb and 850mb charts for this member at the same stage are nothing special considering this

Some serious inversion cold going on there I would say

[Purga]

Very encouraging anomaly chart this and consistent as well.

[Midlands Ice Age]

5 minutes ago, Panayiotis said:

Although 10 days away, we just need to be careful with the heights being pulled from Africa (which moves over France then over us). For the real cold pattern this would need to be cut off ASAP otherwise there is a risk for high pressure developing over the UK which would shunt the cold away. 

Unlikely..

The  very cold air to the north moving down would either blow the warm air away OR make it rise producing a massive blizzard.

P29 ? described above is basically that scenario....

MIA

[geordiekev]

37 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Looks like a direct hit coming - but for now I’ll stick to the ENS

Think we will be in unchartered territory IF this comes off. Rare enough to see it modelled but to now see different models honing in on similar solutions. 

Hens teeth do exist. May actually skip the 0z for my sanity

Edited January 3 by geordiekev

[nick sussex]

16 minutes ago, cold snap said:

Without sounding like a bore Nick .

I'm a little bit suprised by the emphasis on the ECM.

Again it's at 240 hours that we see it show it's hand.

Might be June time at this rate by the time  there is push from the North.

 

It’s by no means a done deal . Even if the high turns up exactly where that sets up is still uncertain . 

Coldies do deserve a change of luck . It’s more likely to happen as I’m still in Cyprus and not due to return for a few more weeks .

The snow jinx is out of the country ! 

 

[Chesil View]

Yes we've learnt over the years that when you cross model agreement on what things could look like even at eight to ten days. There is a higher likelihood of something close to that pattern developing.

 

 

Edited January 3 by lorenzo
Quoted post removed

[Bricriu]

Dare I say  reminiscent of late Februrary 2018. When that seem to count down seamlessly.  Let's hope for no wobbles  tomorrow 

Edited January 3 by lorenzo
Quoted post removed

[damianslaw]

Short term, we have a cold upgrade, models showing sub 528 dam air over much of the UK by Saturday and sub -5 uppers, indeed a pool of sub -10 uppers shown to move through southern UK on Monday on UKMO chart as we pull in a cold easterly feed.

Longer term, continued signal for heights to advect NW, pulling in properly cold arctic continental air increasing risk of wintry weather for all especially the north.

[Man With Beard]

15 minutes ago, Panayiotis said:

Although 10 days away, we just need to be careful with the heights being pulled from Africa (which moves over France then over us). For the real cold pattern this would need to be cut off ASAP otherwise there is a risk for high pressure developing over the UK which would shunt the cold away. 

Yes, I think you've spotted the way out of this cold spell. The Greenland High would still verify but a blast from the Azores might create a dividing line between cold/mild - all speculation at the moment.

[johncam]

What we thinking of GEM 240 , a possibility??

[Ali1977]

EC Mean must be out v soon can it upgrade the last run - which was v good as it was!! 

[Continental Climate]

3 hours ago, Ice Day said:

At day 11, using my best John Motson impression, 'look at that, just look at that'!!!

And a very close match to the GFS and ECM means at the same time from this morning's runs.

My word!

 

Those charts would lead to -14/16 uppers crashing into Eastern UK going over a still warm North Sea. We would be measuring snow in the ft not inches. I don't think it will happen mind you but just imagine if this verified. Carnage in here  

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Yes, I think you've spotted the way out of this cold spell. The Greenland High would still verify but a blast from the Azores might create a dividing line between cold/mild - all speculation at the moment.

but hopefully with fun and games! if we can get the cold from the north in before the attack from the SW

[IanT]

2 hours ago, Scott Ingham said:

I can confirm yes. Yes it is the 15th

Good man! I hope you are spot on. But I also hope that the fowle and unruly mob here are prepared and ready to forgive you if not…

[booferking]

Lol 10 out 10 mean winter is coming. 

Edited January 3 by booferking

[Marting]

ECM ensembles show that ECM on warm side near my location 

The 15 day charts showing the lift lift and fall, strong cold runs and northerly

[northwestsnow]

EC mean at 10 is a good 'un..

 

[blizzard81]

Amazingly good continuity now from the ecm suite. 

[mbrothers]

If this comes off it must be known as the Scott ingham cold spell 

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T120-T168:

Single cluster, in this case, I think it is consensus with the representative member the control run.  Ensemble support for the easterly!

T192-T240:

A little like playing spot the difference, but cluster 1 leaves some heights still to drain from Germany T240, control is the representative member again.  The op is in cluster 2.  Cluster 3 is more aggressive with the cold from the NE.  But all in all, full consensus for the third suite running on the Greenland high evolution.