Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Continental Climate]

7 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

UKMO and GFS at 144

 

Both look great at this point

Almost identical that in itself is very encouraging. Think i prefer the ukmo slightly. 

[TSNWK]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

The GEM 168

Day 7 chart of the season

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Slightly disagree Mike, as I think our high will get sucked north faster due to the better Arctic high, the 06z gfs was an example of having left over heights too near us.

 

Yes, agree, I amended my post when I saw the GEM.

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Gem And GFS quite diff at 168, but both looking great

In fact GEM and GFS illustrate the difference, GEM is going direct, whereas GFS will need help from the next ridge to get round the mess in Greenland at this point.

[frosty ground]

Here it comes 

[Ali1977]

Another ridiculous GFS on the way - what are we in for

[Cold Winter Night]

GFS, GEM and UKMO at 144h

This afternoon I see a tendency to speed up the retrogression signal, with the initial High stronger and rotating that deep cold trough more rapidly towards the SW.

[TSNWK]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Another ridiculous GFS on the way - what are we in for

Any west based concerns to consider???

[ICE COLD]

This place is gonna go mental the gem is going for it big time .

[Continental Climate]

6 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

The GEM at 156 

Holy moly a strong griceland high only 7 days away. We could be looking at -12/14 uppers hitting us in 8/9 days from that vortex approaching scandi. These are truly 80s charts we are looking at. No signs of any bloody shortwaves either....wahoo. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Again the push is weak into Greenland..hope it makes it!

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Any west based concerns to consider???

If you turn the picture 180 you might see some

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Again the push is weak into Greenland..hope it makes it!

It will, just be a couple of days after the gem. Gfs playing catch up again I think

[Winter Hill]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Any west based concerns to consider???

Not on the GFS, GEM, UKMet or the Icon.. 

[booferking]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Again the push is weak into Greenland..hope it makes it!

Nothing weak about that.

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Again the push is weak into Greenland..hope it makes it!

Eh?

[Catacol]

Pfft. This is getting ridiculous. Getting bored of all the constant north easterly charts and anti-zonal flow. I'm hankering after some good old fashioned +NAO and a mild south westerly feed. Someone please find me a chart that shows the Fine Folk of Good Ol' Blighty what the weather round here is really all about. This really sucks. Cross model consensus of continental cold and snow is just so 1980s.

Not.

[Mike Poole]

GEM stalled with northward progression after hitting a roadblock at T192, think I was right the first time, does need the extra impetus from the second ridge to get there.

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Eh?

I thought that low was gonna put too much pressure on the high..but it's got there now!

Edited January 4 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[Winter Hill]

Just now, Catacol said:

Pfft. This is getting ridiculous. Getting bored of all the constant north easterly charts and anti-zonal flow. I'm hankering after some good old fashioned +NAO and a mild south westerly feed. Someone please find me a chart that shows the Fine Folk of Good Ol' Blighty what the weather round here is really all about. This really sucks. Cross model consensus of continental cold and snow is just so 1980s.

Not.

I’m sure one or Two posters will try their best 

[Met4Cast]

Here she comes. Some genuinely cold air to the north and east of the UK on this run.

It's coming home.

[Neilsouth]

Just now, Catacol said:

Pfft. This is getting ridiculous. Getting bored of all the constant north easterly charts and anti-zonal flow. I'm hankering after some good old fashioned +NAO and a mild south westerly feed.

Not.

Well one thing I've noticed which has been different to most winters, is not just the rain but how far south these low pressure systems are! So much so they tend to cross the south and pound so many areas with flooding! Here's to a long dry spell with hopeful winter wonderland in the near future too

[bradymk]

As others have already said, it certainly seems a trend so far on the 12z for a potential quicker route to cold, following the initial easterly.

This may have also been posted earlier, but I was also surprised when looking at the earlier UKV charts for Monday. It has -11 850's widely and even a few -12's. Some uncertainty still to be ironed out for the cold pool early next week and that's before we get to the (hopefully) main event.

A LONG way to go yet as we all know, but not sure we can complain at this stage.

[Lukesluckybunch]

GEM very similar to the 0z run!

[Catacol]

2 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

I’m sure one or Two posters will try their best 

They'll bloody struggle the way NWP has finally cottoned on to the momentum surge!

[northwestsnow]

That is Arctic air incoming on GFS ..