Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Bricriu]

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

They see some retrogression of sorts

 

"Into the following week, as the high is forecast to build further to the west, there is an increasing likelihood of northerly winds developing, introducing colder air once more. With this comes the risk of snow showers"

It doesn't sound like a Greenland high. Some people will be disappointed by that as it lessens the likelihood  of deep cold, but if a mid latitude  block is far enough away to deliver a decent  northerly, I don't mind so much from an imby perspective. I'd love severe cold, but it's snow I am ultimately after.  Hopefully others could get in on the action in time  too.

[Mark wheeler]

35 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Outside the range of MOGREPS is a little red flag in itself.

The period of interest is actually beginning to show on mogreps . Just look at the 85Os beginning to plummet especially further north where we expect the change to take place , the signs are there further south slightly later . Now lets hope the signal counts down and bolsters .

[That ECM]

5 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

The period of interest is actually beginning to show on mogreps . Just look at the 85Os beginning to plummet especially further north where we expect the change to take place , the signs are there further south slightly later . Now lets hope the signal counts down and bolsters .

Yes and strongly suggests a northerly. 

[Froze were the Days]

3 hours ago, Jason M said:

The good news though is that the day 12 charts that everybody will get depressed about today are just as big a waste of pixels as the day 12 charts people were ramping yesterday .

In other words don't believe anything GFS shows at a certain range!...no point of looking at it past 240z.

As I've mentioned before how little drama there'd be if you only followed the ECM and UKMO most winters but then again I know a number of posters get a buzz out of the chase whatever the outcome even though the success rate must probably be at 20/25% in such scenarios. Still all to play for and I for one would be surprised to see the Atlantic back in the next 2 weeks or so but without trying to sound like the new Ian Brown we are now in the 'large teapot so who knows!.

[frosty ground]

8 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

In other words don't believe anything GFS shows at a certain range!...no point of looking at it past 240z.

As I've mentioned before how little drama there'd be if you only followed the ECM and UKMO most winters but then again I know a number of posters get a buzz out of the chase whatever the outcome even though the success rate must probably be at 20/25% in such scenarios. Still all to play for and I for one would be surprised to see the Atlantic back in the next 2 weeks or so but without trying to sound like the new Ian Brown we are now in the 'large teapot so who knows!.

20-25% success rate would make this an easy hobby

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well deep fi on GFS isn’t following the AAM response posted by Matt Hugo yesterday.  Are we about to it not become as important a driver this time round?

fascinating change in GFS given what may be on the table.  Wobble or right….only the next 7 days will tell us the answer for midmonth

One expects a wax and wane even with nirvana…..but today GFS isn’t really waxing before it wanes.  The main thing currently is there’s a lot of runs to come by all models….but next week will likely confirm the way forward….not today, tomorrow or yesterday 

 

BFTP

Edited January 5 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Froze were the Days]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

20-25% success rate would make this an easy hobby

All guess work! I think I might have overplayed that... 

[MattStoke]

Today's Met Office updates may calm some in here - 

 

[ICE COLD]

ECM and ECM mean/eps still look brilliant 

UKMO 168 looks brilliant 

GFS please just jump ship back to the ECM solution

Met update- Upgrade

Edited January 5 by ICE COLD

[winterof79]

42 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Let's keep on model discussion please all.

Any further discussions on the Met O or BBC outlooks please post over to here where the last few have gone.

Thanks.

 

I'd suggest a look on the thread

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Quick one from me while the 12s get ready..I think things are moving into place slowly but surely.. Next week obviously colder with Frost.. then hints of less cold for a short time..which is hinted at by mogreps 6z ens..we then see the clusters start to head down again which probably hints at the ntly...we also have a current strat warming which won't be picked out by the models just yet...this could serve too boost the blocking forces..keep in mind El Nino winter is very often backloaded and ENSO is also favourable.

And just to say that met have updated the 2nd part of forecast to now include risk of potentially big snow events as systems try to push in from the West or South West..with cold air being in place.

There's a hell of a lot going on..some heads may fall off in the process but I urge you to remain positive and keep a cool head...a cool head will deal with this so much better.

Enjoy the experience folks.

OK it wasn't a quick one from me..I got carried away

Edited January 5 by MATTWOLVES 3

[Mcconnor8]

ICON 12z looks like it is decent so far, amplification starting towards Greenland already at T+132

Edited January 5 by Mcconnor8

[Battleground Snow]

High Res starting to find the precipitation more widely now,and even these may well be underselling it at that range.

12z arpege.

A dusting for some is a nice starter, especially for areas that usually miss out.

[nick sussex]

So far the coldest 850 value moving west into the east se in relation to the easterly .

Arpege -10 

ICON -8

 

Edited January 5 by nick sussex

[Mcconnor8]

Icon 12z goes from this to this in the last 24 hours of the run, cold beginning to head South.

[TSNWK]

Just now, nick sussex said:

So far coldest 850 value moving west .

Arpege -10 

ICON -8

 

Good idea.. evens! gfs is no better than -6

[TSNWK]

yes its ICON - but its a model and I'm posting this day 7.5 beauty....

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

yes its ICON - but its a model and I'm posting this day 7.5 beauty....

If now the GFS and UKMO follow that , this place will melt down - speeding things up and with a great METO update to go with it. 

Edited January 5 by Ali1977

[nick sussex]

The shape of the block on the ICON 12 hrs run is similar to the ECM , also a similar set up towards the ne with the low .

Edited January 5 by nick sussex

[TSNWK]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

If now the GFS and UKMO follow that , this place will melt down - speeding things up and with a great METO update to go with it. 

It's picture perfect to my eyes. Energy going under heights robust into Greenland and vortex heading south

[That ECM]

1 looking good 3 to go.

[Drifter]

Stonking Icon, that’s a great start to the 12z’s

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

yes its ICON - but its a model and I'm posting this day 7.5 beauty....

Yes, good start to the 12z runs, and the best thing is it is nothing like the GFS runs earlier today at the same time.  

[Ali1977]

Slight upgrade on colder air at T48, poss a dusting Sunday night for some too 

[frosty ground]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The shape of the block on the ICON 12 hrs run is similar to the ECM , also a similar set up towards the ne with the low .

Is it not quicker than the ECM?