Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Scott Ingham]

Compared to the GFS 00z yesterday morning when people spoke about Greenland heights diminishing the model has taken a complete u turn to show what was on offer the previous 3 or 4 days. Classic of the models. Project a pattern. Drop it for 48 hours then converge on what all the means were showing.

all is going just fine. Breathe people!

[bradymk]

Nice to see the upgrades for Monday and Monday night. Hopefully ECM moves inline with the others on this.

 Something to watch very loosely for Tuesday / Wednesday too.

The 6z has lower heights to our south for the same time on Tuesday. This is only a possibility but I do wonder whether this system could ‘spin’ northwards rather than south like currently modelled. 

We see it move southwards at the moment into Northern Spain but there have been the odd ENS member and also the GEM 00z op yesterday that take this pool of lower heights northwards. I feel this has happened a lot in summer months where the south ends up getting a soaking.

Something to watch out for if the upgrades for early next week continue. 
 

GFS 0Z

GFS 6Z

Example from GEM yesterday 

[ICE COLD]

Come on GFS T192

[Ali1977]

Get in you beauty 

[AO-]

Great chart.  dont need to say more. Look at the West and the North. The ingredients to get a cold spell. 

[blizzard81]

15 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

@TEITS is correct btw. In 2010 and 2009 the ecm went on one for 48 hours before quickly coming back to its 240 ideas at 120 and the rest is history! 
 

Just to add this latest gfs run is similar to ouput 48 hours ago! Heights are hugely different in a good way around Greenland. First signs of a climb back towards nirvana? 

Yep, it's a fair point about ecm all those years ago. Gfs et all are also guilty of this from time to time - jumping off then back on the wagon. I think it resonates more though when the ecm does this as there is generally more respect for that model. Modelling over the next 72 hours will be critical. 

[MJB]

Great chart and by tomorrow evening it will be on the first page.....pushing out of FI into the medium range 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Brilliant this is what we want a renewed push at 210!

[Day_9]

Is @tight isobar ok???

[Captain Shortwave]

We need that deep low exiting Canada to fully interact with the cut of low to push the ridge northwards again, a cold northerly is guaranteed but upstream is the difference between a toppler and something more significant.

-8c isotherm south of the UK by day 9.

Edited January 6 by Captain Shortwave

[Hatewarmth]

2 hours ago, sheikhy said:

If ecm could be wrong at just 48 hours is there any point in taking the rest of the run seriously!!!!!all other models have upgraded the easterly early on yet ecm is still furthest south!!!!

Exactly. Remember small differences early on can make big differences later on. And at 48 it’s against all the other models. BUT still has to be taken seriously. On the 12z ecm we need to be looking at a shift north at 36. This could make all the difference later on

[Scott Ingham]

7 minutes ago, IDO said:

The modelling of the Pacific high has added uncertainty. 24-36 hours ago we were getting a strong ridge with potential for a cross-flow, but now it has gone flat. Negative with regard to destruction of the tPV but positive is that the Pac/Arctic high should feed the GH:

D1-7 GFS 06z: 

The other thing that the Alaskan ridge did was change orientation of low pressure off the seaboard and weaken heights off eastern North America. Now we have a deeper trough allowing more waa up the west coast of Greenland (like it was before)

[Day 10]

Baltic Northerly!

[frosty ground]

If I had a compliant about this run it’s the high is bottom heavy 

[Ali1977]

I’ve kept saying that throwing teddies was pointless when we are in for a big freeze

[TSNWK]

5 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Brilliant this is what we want a renewed push at 210!

Hope you’re right mate,, I felt the height were fading a little at 204.. I take your point on renewed push at 210 however I’m not it’s made a lot of difference by 222.. nice chart in isolation I’m unsure it will hold might topple

Edited January 6 by TSNWK

[ICE COLD]

Lovely run again from the gfs

[AO-]

-10 over a large part of Britain by the 15th. The energy in the Northwest is bothering me though. 

[frosty ground]

 

im going daft i know it but an easterly looks possible 

[Catacol]

14 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Its not a major warming that will split the Vortex, But it is a strong one that displaces the PV.

Isn't this a fantastic winter for model  viewing, so much going off its hard to keep up with!

Best in years - certainly since 2018.

Technical SSW is perhaps something we get a bit hung up on. We know a downwelling reversal has the most significant impacts, but a speed reduction and split such as is occurring now will also have impacts, even if less severe. The key is we do not have a tight, well formed and above average strat vortex preventing tropospheric drivers from controlling the pattern. Let’s hope we get to make the most of it!

[Ice Day]

So, at lunchtime on the 15th we have a long-fetch northerly with the -8 isotherm well clear of the south coast.

 

Brutal windchill by day 10 nationwide

[ICE COLD]

Heights gaining around Greenland again at day 10

[Lukesluckybunch]

Can we make the next push by day 10..heights curving around to bring in a even colder northeasterly!

[MJB]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Can we make the next push by day 10..heights curving around to bring in a even colder northeasterly!

Is a NEly en route 

[AO-]

The shortwaves are nibbling and the block has difficulties. Hopefully the through over Canada keeps the Greenland hp in store. 

Edited January 6 by AO-