Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[MJB]

13 hours ago, MJB said:

8th -15th 

15th -22nd

22nd - 29th

It might be a bit behind but it's also a bit in front, 22nd - 29th, something Tamara was talking about.

Let's wait and see eh?

Maybe these weren't far off the mark after all ? EC kept a cool head whereas GFS carried on drinking.

What a great run 

[IDO]

Even the bigger picture is on our side this run, with an Arctic high directing the Asian/Scandi trough N/S keeping the circulation simple:

[Vikos]

32 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

@TEITS is correct btw. In 2010 and 2009 the ecm went on one for 48 hours before quickly coming back to its 240 ideas at 120 and the rest is history! 
 

Just to add this latest gfs run is similar to ouput 48 hours ago! Heights are hugely different in a good way around Greenland. First signs of a climb back towards nirvana? 

Yep, this wobbling days before the mighty 2010 from EC is a thing I remember very good. But also have to say, that since then 14 years have passed and EC had some major updates and upgrades, not to mention the capacity of their super computers. 
 

[TSNWK]

If 06z lands then at least we can add 2024 to the likes 2013 at least maybe 2018 as that was late  not yet 1987 / 91.. 

However past 2 ecm  have sobered me up and in particular this mornings ecm going wrong at day 6

 

Edited January 6 by TSNWK

[MJB]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS 06 hrs run is a good illustration in that sometimes smaller is better ! 

A little high centred to the nw n with cold n ne  flow funneling sw can provide what coldies want .

Fair point Nick, I have seen you post a couple of times about not getting too hung up on the size of a Greenland High.

[Ali1977]

Control and mean looking good so far at 144 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Not quite the -16/18 uppers...oh well -10/12 will do!

[Scott Ingham]

7 minutes ago, AO- said:

The Beast from the East. Cold hp at Scandinavia with the shortwave pushing south. 

The route to scandi is what I’m now watching for. A scandi height build a flattening of the pattern and battleground snow is the potential next period of watch if I stick to the methods I’ve done this year. Tamara oscillating wandering high lat block

[Mark wheeler]

Warm outlier

[AO-]

And still there is work to be done by pushing the hp over Greenland more east. Many water under the bridge up untill the 15th. I prefer a more continental flow by then over a northerly in which small shortwaves are able to blow up everything. 

[That ECM]

I think this is the time where the hurdle needs clearing. Gfs could clear two hurdles on top of each other.

[Chesil View]

Just now, Mark wheeler said:

Warm outlier

Let's hope so.  

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Scott Ingham said:

The route to scandi is what I’m now watching for. A scandi height build a flattening of the pattern and battleground snow is the potential next period of watch if I stick to the methods I’ve done this year. Tamara oscillating wandering high lat block

There’s been signs of it on the 46 dayer, Scott.  But I’ve got no real idea at all how that would actually manifest itself because we can’t see the detail of the individual runs on the 46, so it will be fascinating to see if and how it happens.

[MJB]

Control shaping up well 

[That ECM]

Just now, MJB said:

Control shaping up well 

Mean marginally better.

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

There’s been signs of it on the 46 dayer, Scott.  But I’ve got no real idea at all how that would actually manifest itself because we can’t see the detail of the individual runs on the 46, so it will be fascinating to see if and how it happens.

I would imagine it involves a stronger high lat block than what we currently see with models underestimating the block with a topple to Scandi end of Jan into Feb due to the Atlantic waking up from a quick progression of the MJO 3 into 6 off the back of an AAM state that hasn’t fallen a great deal and a GWO orbit still in high Nino phases leading to only a small drop in GLAAM before it begins to rise again. So Scandi then watch for the next round of amplification middle of Feb into Greenland. It’s the holy grail and so much can go wrong to change that but it’s possible just like this period of weather was possible if not likely

[Met4Cast]

A long way off but I am slightly concerned by the EPS, that's a lot of spread with a clustering towards something much milder in the extended, albeit the colder cluster still larger.

Would really like to see this pack tightening across all models on todays runs, we're in a little bit of a limbo at the moment.

[Lukesluckybunch]

lovely mean at 174

[TallPaul]

58 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

It’s the start of a deep cold spell. How long? Not known yet but it will be the first real spell of this winter and one with building blocks in place with the potential to produce a fair amount of snow and ice days.

btw this was a date I threw out there nearly 3 weeks ago due to background signals that many have already gone through numerous times over this period. 
 

It was a best guess based on them with lag for impacts to hit nothing more but it’s a running joke as the models began to converge on this exact date and the chances of getting something like this correct 3 weeks out is low!

The nearer we get to 15th Jan the more we are getting (nervously) excited that you are going to nail this @Scott Ingham... and If you do, I will be the first to ask that the Meto name any future severe wintry episodes as 'SIRO'. .. 

S. cott

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[LetItSnow!]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

A long way off but I am slightly concerned by the EPS, that's a lot of spread with a clustering towards something much milder in the extended, albeit the colder cluster still larger.

Would really like to see this pack tightening across all models on todays runs, we're in a little bit of a limbo at the moment.

14 days away. In that time different ensemble members will no doubt be throwing any pattern that sticks. Bear in mind that graph is also for London which will always be at risk of upper air temperatures coming closer to normal. Some of those members may be less cold uppers coming into surface cold and being surprisingly snowy, some may be mild aloft but still cold at the surface etc. Not worth much concern at the moment IMO. I think I've heard it be said that in the extended range, models will usually toy with ending a cold spell in our locale because it is logistically probable not neccesarily because it's being sniffed out.

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, TallPaul said:

The nearer we get to 15th Jan the more we are getting (nervously) excited that you are going to nail this @Scott Ingham... and If you do, I will be the first to ask that the Meto name any future severe wintry episodes as 'SIRO'. .. 

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I like it! Siro! It sounds menacing! 

[Met4Cast]

Improvement on the 06z GEFS, good start!

[Paul_1978]

2 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The FAX charts look mainly dry unfortunately. Even the Met Office site only shows cloud cover but no precipitation!

Totally expected - there’s never much precipitation associated with high pressure. Interest comes as low pressures potentially starts to encroach into cold air the week after. 

[That ECM]

That’s a strengthening mean. 

[Day 10]

Just now, That ECM said:

That’s a strengthening mean. 

Excellent mate and the long range Meto out to the 3rd Feb looks good too, no real sign of a breakdown stating colder weather likely to dominate.