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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

Catacol

By Catacol
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion only.
Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. Or if you just want to moan about the weather or models, or would like to ramp up whatever may be on the way - there is now a dedicated ramp and moans thread.

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
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Posted

A quite superb day 7.5 chart

image.thumb.png.23202f54c4adebe51816bc5cae4979c4.png image.thumb.png.2f7b835cb67bf08f63a6413e8684faff.png

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted

GFS 6z looking better to me. Cold air and lower heights moving south over the UK more quickly and cleanly.

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Drifter Rising Star

Drifter

Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

It's very quiet in here terms of posts on it! Might even cut off the high soon 

It’s because we all know what the ECM is showing. Until that’s onboard there’s no point being excited imo. 

Edited by Drifter
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Hatewarmth Contributor

Hatewarmth

Posted
  • Location: Barnsley
  • Location: Barnsley
Posted
14 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Yeah not sure why the downbeat mood, everything still looking very good.

GFS AVG 240H

GFSAVGEU00_240_1(2).thumb.png.3b528c769d1f20c1615862a571c299cc.png

ECM 240H

ECMOPEU00_240_1(6).thumb.png.1580b375caf8cc9e853aeb27dee7a0db.png

UKMO 168H

UKMHDOPEU00_168_1(2).thumb.png.3ab286eca405fdeb9d42a17efb1362e7.png

GEM 240H

GEMOPEU00_240_1(1).thumb.png.2399b04cad0b5f02d96d73fe2a7bfb79.png

JMA 240H

JMAOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.cac2c83dc7250d81b52ab760bf8ab707.png

All very good at 240h, which is already way out the reliable timeframe, forget what some are showing after. Yes these charts aren't the 10/10 FI charts we been spoilt with over the last few days but they are still very good.

Forme we have had the expected model wobble, we have had the wobble with the overly good charts a couple of days ago, now we are seeing kind of the other end of the spectrum. Still very good and packed with snow potential in my opinion.

Once we get the cold in, it should be very stubborn to move! The models usually nearly always overplay any return to a more mild/mobile set-up, with the current northern hemisphere profile and background driver signals at worst I see a battleground scenario setting up next week with milder air to the southwest (with rain/sleet) and colder air to the more NE (with snow showers). Perhaps heavy snow where the boundaries meet.

Again, a lot of water to go under the bridge, no alarm bells ringing for me just yet, far from it. 🥶❄️

Totally agree with this. Remember folks that in this sort of setup the reliable is greatly reduced. Not only that very small differences early on can make a HUGE difference further down the line.

 

i understand that certain models don’t show what they did 48 hours ago but it’s out in FI and should although be noted, also understood that it will very likely change hopefully for the better but yes unfortunately for the worse. Anything after 120 (at the most) should be viewed as trend spotting and not to be taken as gospel.

 

as the above has stated everything in the reliable is still looking good so do not understand the downbeat mood either. It’s just variations of broadly the same pattern and if the SSW does happen it will only reinforce the oattern

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
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Posted (edited)

Very nice 😍


Big upgrade 

IMG_2484.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
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Posted
1 minute ago, Drifter said:

It’s because we all know what the ECM is showing. Until that’s onboard there’s no point being excited imo. 

Considering it got a cold pool wrong at 36 hours I wouldn't be thinking it's correct at 192 to be honest 

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

🤣

IMG_0862.png

IMG_0874.png

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

I suspect the mood is about to lift in here.  

image.thumb.png.e7fe08a8c4f7ad79dacc314c1d9b13c2.png image.thumb.png.358d1f1c572938ae8d61be7b7544c336.png

However, as I said earlier, we're now in the just-for-fun stage, so it's just showing an option that *may* come to fruition.  Nice to look at though.

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
Just now, Ice Day said:

I suspect the mood is about to lift in here.  

image.thumb.png.e7fe08a8c4f7ad79dacc314c1d9b13c2.png image.thumb.png.358d1f1c572938ae8d61be7b7544c336.png

However, as I said earlier, we're now in the just-for-fun stage, so it's just showing an option that *may* come to fruition.  Nice to look at though.

Just need a big ens upgrade now 👌🥶

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Eagle Eye Maestro

Eagle Eye

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
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Posted

Thank you @Catacol I looked at the charts and wondered why everyone is so very down on here. Not every slight downgrade is the end of the world. Models still support the cold and snowy potential solutions and fairly notable cold possible still. 

 

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Drifter Rising Star

Drifter

Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

image.thumb.png.4c4670e7f18d58dcf35eb81bd15a2849.png
no deep cold here.

almost like it’s not yet a done deal.

Looks deep cold to me? 

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

gfseu-0-186.thumb.png.85ecabc9a6d222c0f9362815d7953bec.png

That is why I am not concerned about Iberian Heights. The WAA at D8 is still being pushed to Greenland to pump that GH. It also keeps the Azores low west.

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
4 minutes ago, Drifter said:

It’s because we all know what the ECM is showing. Until that’s onboard there’s no point being excited imo. 

This and eps being poor 

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Drifter Rising Star

Drifter

Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
Posted

The 192 chart is actual perfection. Let’s not worry too much if it falls apart in FI. 

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
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Posted

The GFS is certainly sticking two fingers up at the ECM this morning with better amplification into Greenland. 

It's a good start!

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
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Posted

A nudge toward the UKM 00z by GFS in terms of the NE Pacific. There, the UKM was good from a cold UK perspective because it prevented the linkup, meaning the HLB has nowhere to go & would remain across the Arctic Ocean & Greenland, such that we’d likely see the cold airmass reach the Channel sometime on 15th.

ECM remains more open to the idea of that Pacific linkup, alas I’d need to carry out considerable research to be able to say whether that’s likely down to erroneous bias as opposed to higher model skill versus others.

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

The 850's at 204 are somewhat 'brisk'

image.thumb.png.9b3e3e028131ef0abbc0b34765e8e12a.png

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seabreeze86 Accomplished

seabreeze86

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
Posted
9 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

The issue is the period after this chart though, as most have said the period between 120/168 appear to be going well but then the blocking dramatically weakens and we end up in a damp squib

Yes that’s true but the small improvements in the 6z have had the positive effects I hoped they would

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weathercold Aficionado

weathercold

Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
Posted
6 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

I suspect the mood is about to lift in here.  

image.thumb.png.e7fe08a8c4f7ad79dacc314c1d9b13c2.png image.thumb.png.358d1f1c572938ae8d61be7b7544c336.png

However, as I said earlier, we're now in the just-for-fun stage, so it's just showing an option that *may* come to fruition.  Nice to look at though.

Goodness me - this chase is ageing me! Please be right!!

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Drifter Rising Star

Drifter

Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
Posted (edited)

What is interesting for me is why do the heights appear to ‘deflate’ in situ in FI, without any obvious atlantic attack. That’s the only word to describe them - they just appear to fizzle. 

Hopefully once they get closer the modelled heights will be stronger. 

Edited by Drifter
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seabreeze86 Accomplished

seabreeze86

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
Posted
Just now, frosty ground said:

Due to changes around the globe gaps are opening up in different places

image.thumb.png.56754fe95424096df4ffc1d935116ee6.png

wedge me a kipper 

I think we will begin to see more runs finds these wedges as we get closer to the reliable

If they actually help us or not is another matter 

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