Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Snowman.]

Nice push of those heights NE of Iceland, trying onto give us a more NE’ly wind direction. 

[offerman]

9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Very nice

Big upgrade 

Morning Ali,

But on this chart the purples and blues have not yet made it to us so can you explain to a novis please why is this a big upgrade?  Thanks 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, weathercold said:

Goodness me - this chase is ageing me! Please be right!!

Depending on the size of your envelope it’s bang on! 

[Battleground Snow]

4 minutes ago, Singularity said:

A nudge toward the UKM 00z by GFS in terms of the NE Pacific. There, the UKM was good from a cold UK perspective because it prevented the linkup, meaning the HLB has nowhere to go & would remain across the Arctic Ocean & Greenland, such that we’d likely see the cold airmass reach the Channel sometime on 15th.

ECM remains more open to the idea of that Pacific linkup, alas I’d need to carry out considerable research to be able to say whether that’s likely down to erroneous bias as opposed to higher model skill versus others.

Yes it's quite a difference by just 144, would be interesting to understand the reasons behind it

[Zero Visibility]

2 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

Yes that’s true but the small improvements in the 6z have had the positive effects I hoped they would

And this is why we keep loving the chase, the ups the downs then the ups again!

[Drifter]

1 minute ago, Drifter said:

What is interesting for me is why do the heights appear to ‘deflate’ in situ in FI, without any obvious atlantic attack. That’s the only word to describe them - they just appear to fizzle. 

delete!

Edited January 7 by Drifter

[weathercold]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Depending on the size of your envelope it’s bang on! 

The difference around Greenland v ecm is a real eye opener, v interesting 

[January Snowstorm]

Deep cold, temperatures would plummet!! Very dry though almost zero ppn for the next 2 weeks. I know it will all change again tonight, but it would be nice to see some snow falling

[Mike Poole]

GFS 6z is a cracker.  Not at all what we would expect to see if it was all going down the swanny.  

What will be interesting, is whether this unravels in FI, or does the fact that the cold gets properly established on this run, insulate us against a prompt return to business as usual.

Edited January 7 by Mike Poole

[Drifter]

I’m still hoping we might find some Scandy heights at some point to keep the cold going. Surprised this hasn’t popped up yet. 

[bluearmy]

Just now, weathercold said:

The difference around Greenland v ecm is a real eye opener, v interesting 

And the reason for not getting over analytical until it’s resolved 

this run is high slp despite the low thicknesses. So v cold and dry apart from the usual suspects prone to an onshore flow.  Not sure we could expect many surprises under a cold ridge. 

[Battleground Snow]

Jff but a scandi surface high is trying to form, and look at the cold in that area.

 

[cheshire snow]

That’s going to feel a bit brisk at day nine.

[Day 10]

I wasn't on here in 2010 and was only looking from afar but didn't the GFS handle the Greenland blocking far better than the others? A bit like now, less wobbling about?

I know nothing has happened yet but just curious.

Lovely chart at 192 - that familiar date of the 15th lol.

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, offerman said:

Morning Ali,

But on this chart the purples and blues have not yet made it to us so can you explain to a novis please why is this a big upgrade?  Thanks 

It was the heights in Greenland - they were much stronger vs the previous run - stoping and collapsing of the direct northerly ! 

[IDO]

At D10, it is a lot better than the 0z with deep cold and the main arm of the jet digging south:

This is the case where we say, "Get the cold in..." and we will see how post-D10 develops with the pockets of wedges.

 

[WINTRY WALES]

I know others have said the same thing and people say there’s no truth in it but it always seems like the early morning runs improve through out the day…may explain the constant down beat moods first thing. Surely it’s a pattern and not just perception 

Edited January 7 by WINTRY WALES

[Guest]

A much needed boost for the Norfolk ski resorts!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The theme remains generally.  There’s no upgrade or downgrade at day 8+, just variations.  Like I said last week, we won’t resolve the detail for midmonth until into next week

 

BFTP

[Anthony Burden]

GFS Nudging towards severe weather,met office update 

[Hullsnow87]

Just now, Anthony Burden said:

GFS Nudging towards severe weather,met office update 

What do you mean?

[terrier]

Much better GFS06Z but I remain sceptical. Until we have the ECM on board I’d be very wary of what the GFS is showing at the moment. 

[pdiddy]

8 minutes ago, offerman said:

Morning Ali,

But on this chart the purples and blues have not yet made it to us so can you explain to a novis please why is this a big upgrade?  Thanks 

That's not temperature... check the 850s and you'll see how cold the air is.

[Zero Visibility]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

The theme remains generally.  There’s no upgrade or downgrade at day 8+, just variations.  Like I said last week, we won’t resolve the detail for midmonth until into next week

 

BFTP

But definitely positive, showing this is far from game over.

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

I wasn't on here in 2010 and was only looking from afar but didn't the GFS handle the Greenland blocking far better than the others? A bit like now, less wobbling about?

I know nothing has happened yet but just curious.

Lovely chart at 192 - that familiar date of the 15th lol.

As I understand it, it is the one area relevant to UK cold setups that the GFS has modelled better than the others in the past.  One possible way to read recent runs is that GFS had its wobble in that area a 24 hours in advance of that of the ECM’s wobble.  But there are many other ways to read things as well, so I’m not saying this is necessarily the case.