Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Aiden2012]

Maybe now the only we go is up hopefully bring on the 12z  

[winterof79]

24 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Their knees tend not to jerk as often as Net Weather posters so hopefully no issues.

Knees are stable and not jerking profusely .....i believe

Edited January 7 by winterof79

[That ECM]

8 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Knees are stable and not jerking profusely .....i believe

Knees are rock solid and resting on a ramp.

[Ali1977]

METO outlook saying chance of unsettled from the west now - on the medium range. Long not updated. I guess that ties In with the latest GFS. Not a done deal and poss some snow chances as it does I guess. 
Still looking like a v cold 4/5 days from next weekend 

Edited January 7 by Ali1977

[MJB]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

METO outlook saying chance of unsettled from the west now - on the medium range. Long not updated. I guess that ties In with the latest GFS. Not a done deal and poss some snow chances as it does I guess. 

Yes if the cold is entrenched breakdown snow a possibility but the extended extended needs updating..............so far out these things can change, longevity of cold now in doubt 

[sheikhy]

Upgrade on ecm 06z at 144 hours!!!!stronger ridge into greenland and cold air inline to hit us from north east a bit earlier maybe!!

[The Enforcer]

From my perspective, there has been little change. The 'stinker' runs have always been there and this is no different for GEFS06z with P29:

Unlike stinkers in recent preceding outputs, which have been pushing a pattern of bringing in mild air from the SW LP before the maritime polar air arrives, this one develops and blows up an LP in the flow around Iceland and then that absorbs the SW LP, which it looks like might otherwise have disrupted.

The other thing about this stinker is it is more isolated and arguably less stinky than its predecessors.

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

Yes if the cold is entrenched breakdown snow a possibility but the extended extended needs updating..............so far out these things can change, longevity of cold now in doubt 

The breakdown if any should be short-lived as background drivers are ripe for re-amplification at any opportunity.

[Lampostwatcher]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

METO outlook saying chance of unsettled from the west now - on the medium range. Long not updated. I guess that ties In with the latest GFS. Not a done deal and poss some snow chances as it does I guess. 
Still looking like a v cold 4/5 days from next weekend 

Lows hitting cold air perfect as long as we get atleast one snow event 

You would think most people would be happy with that 🌨

[Zero Visibility]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

METO outlook saying chance of unsettled from the west now - on the medium range. Long not updated. I guess that ties In with the latest GFS. Not a done deal and poss some snow chances as it does I guess. 
Still looking like a v cold 4/5 days from next weekend 

Important to note their confidence being low toward the end of that period. (For unsettled)

Edited January 7 by Zero Visability

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Zero Visability said:

Important to note their confidence being low toward the end of that period.

Yeah not a done deal - and so far today things are slowly upgrading 

[northwestsnow]

BIG news 06Z EC is  a rather large upgrade mid term.

I do hope we see upgrades this evening..

Edited January 7 by northwestsnow

[Norrance]

Remember that there is a thread dedicated to the Met O and BBC forecasts. Please leave this one for model discussion. Thanks.

[January Snowstorm]

This southeast event tomorrow holds my interest too. That cold pool gives more than a glancing blow to where I live and more of a sea stretch perhaps to boost ppn. Icon slightly upgraded again

[TEITS]

Little chance to post these past 24hrs.

Overall I am happier today compared to yesterday. The swing of the pendulum has gone back towards cold especially with regards to the ECM. The uncertainty with regards to how far S the N,ly penetrates is clearly shown on the GEFS ensembles.

Note for my location on the 16th with the exception of one member they all reach at least -8C.

Now the S coast of England. Note the increased scatter for the 16th of Jan.

Northern parts of France and this scatter is even more noticeable.

 

Like I say the trend today has gone back towards the N,ly extending across most of the UK. Lets hope this shift S continues and who knows we may see a trend towards the N,ly being followed by an even colder E/ENE,ly towards the end of the following week i.e 20th Jan .

 

[SollyOlly]

2 hours ago, jmp223 said:

ATMO 203 Tutorials - The 850 mb Forecasting Technique

SITES.GOOGLE.COM

---

During the day, convective mixing dominates. The ground heats the air from below; as the air warms, it bubbles upward and is replaced by cooler air from above. The cycle continues...

 

This should help

That is a very educational link, thank you.

[jacke]

3 hours ago, markw2680 said:

Omg people get a grip. Wake up look on here to see downgrade, poor charts, egg on face etc etc. come straight out in a mood. Look on the actual models and think its variations which are to be expected when looking5/6/7-10 days away! Come back in here and go to second from last page to see….upgrades, backtracks etc etc. you get the gist, why can’t these certain ones chill out. Every single model run will differ in one way or another and yet WE ALL know this.

the cold is pretty much in our doorstep with possible snow for some. Longer term it’s dryer it’s colder, who knows what’s going to happen later next week, nobody knows certainly not the god damn GFS

Thank you Mark you have saved me a longer post. Shame on some of you early starters, learn some patience.

[Lukesluckybunch]

More of the same..from the icon..no faults early on

20 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

BIG news 06Z EC is  a rather large upgrade mid term.

I do hope we see upgrades this evening..

What period nw..120-168?

[Drifter]

Icon better heights over Greenland at day 4/5

[Ali1977]

What’s going on here - Greeny high strengthening at 120 - looks quicker route to cold too 

[seabreeze86]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

What’s going on here - Greeny high strengthening at 120 - looks quicker route to cold too 

Small ridge from the pacific helping instead of hindering this time perhaps?

[Mcconnor8]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

What’s going on here - Greeny high strengthening at 120 - looks quicker route to cold too 

Greenland heights were stronger on the 0z than this 12z run, just have to hope the Iberian heights don't stop the cold pushing South like they did on that run, think it might be a bit better in that regard.

[Mark wheeler]

And here we go again peeps , lets hope Brian is cheering like this at the end of each run. Lets Go 

 

Northerly setting in quicker to my eyes on this run.

Edited January 7 by Mark wheeler

[Midlands Ice Age]

4 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

Small ridge from the pacific helping instead of hindering this time perhaps?

yep.. small ridges will be useful, its the big round blobby highs (on that side) which transfer the cold back eastwards we do not want. 

MIA

Edited January 7 by Midlands Ice Age

[Ali1977]

Different set up - and that Greeny high appears to be holding so far 

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Different set up - and that Greeny high appears to be holding so far 

Infact this looks really good noting it’s the icon