Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Lukesluckybunch]

That would get really cold after day 10..a northeasterly setting up I think!

[frosty ground]

o look that wedge is getting picked up now and moving into the scandi region

the mild sector will vanish as we count down to the day, I think the pattern is set now

[Cheshire Freeze]

Happy enough with that EC run tbh. Unlike other output I’ve seen over the past couple of days it doesn’t shut the door on cold going forward.

[Ali1977]

Just now, Drifter said:

Well that 240 chart looks a bit implausible. Won’t be worrying about that! 

Still very cold but I agree, ENS will be interesting to see. 

[Purga]

Trust ECM to throw a googly!

[Froze were the Days]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

That would get really cold after day 10..a northeasterly setting up I think!

Closer to slider territory I would think...getting colder.

[Drifter]

Just now, Purga said:

Trust ECM to throw a googly!

A cold googly though. 

[sheikhy]

West based nao at the end but its better than the 00z overall!!keep an eye on that little cold pool northwest greenland in future runs between 144 and 168 hours!!!!could derail everything quite a bit if it dont get absorbed further west or further east!!!!

[northwestsnow]

Just now, frosty ground said:

o look that wedge is getting picked up now and moving into the scandi region

the mild sector will vanish as we count down to the day, I think the pattern is set now

Like the little systems heading into NE Spain too mate..

It's already freezing at day 10 not sure of the wind direction mind

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

Closer to slider territory I would think...getting colder.

They have no low pressure southeast to slide into its high pressure with low pressure to our north for the same time frame 240, 

[Mark wheeler]

14 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Really ?? ECM , GFS and GEM around day 8 

Exciting times Yes and do you know  what!  since the introduction of the Kma I have really grown fond of it  

Edited January 7 by Mark wheeler

[northwestsnow]

TBH EC det looks weird days 9 + 10 ..

It's upgraded days 5 to 8 so that is a big positive for me ..

[seabreeze86]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH EC det looks weird days 9 + 10 ..

It's upgraded days 5 to 8 so that is a big positive for me ..

Yes the ECM day 10 chart would be very cold at the surface but it looks odd almost like it’s ran out of ideas 

[TSNWK]

In summary a good set of 12z.. particularly pleased that ecm op has moved towards ukm / Gfs up to day 7… next big datapoint as I understand it are the eps suite to understand how they are setting the scene days 8 to 15…

off to regionals.. streamer watch.. 

Edited January 7 by TSNWK

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH EC det looks weird days 9 + 10 ..

It's upgraded days 5 to 8 so that is a big positive for me ..

Days 9 and 10 look good - If it's snow you are looking for shortly afterwards. 

[Derecho]

Taken in isolation, I'm happy with the EC 12z this evening. I'm confident now we will get some good blocking to our NW next weekend and a northerly flow of some form.

The questions after that are how cold will the northerly flow be and how long will the blocking last for?

Hopefully the EC ENS give us further optimism but it's been a good evening of model output!

 

[Met4Cast]

The pages in this thread are going by at a rate of knots so I guess the ECM has done a thing..

Fantastic det outputs across the board this evening, would like to see something of a tightening amongst the ensembles before my confidence begins to increase again but much better than yesterday evening!

[Beanz]

1 hour ago, Scott Ingham said:

From an emotional and passion perspective yeah I agree and I’m a cold lover and love the rollercoaster just as much as you do!

But from a scientific perspective and this is a science at the end of the day I’d disagree as it’s harder to maintain a calm rational head and makes it confusing for newbies us who are trying to learn the science. Plus it’s plain wrong to assume every operational run is correct it’s better to start with means and ensembles and look for any change in direction in them. 

All just my opinion of course! You have yours and I respect it.

I’d go one step further, it’s not an opinion it is absolutely correct

[Cambrian]

Looking at the ensemble means is always very valuable. Identifying the similarities and assessing the differences between the leading models allows the establishment of a baseline of expectation based on a more centred range of the wider ensemble envelope, which can’t be a bad thing to take into account, irrespective of any divergence in the longer term. 

The later divergence is also of interest for the same reasons. The models will inevitably diverge over the longer timeframes, but again there will be commonalities in their evolutions, which are worth noting. 

There are also of course the changes that occur between runs of the same model, which are useful to observe for the purpose of identifying trends. 

In addition, over time, with experience, we develop an understanding of the leanings and biases of particular models in certain situations.

 

This is a great example of why it’s very worthwhile keeping an eye on the ensemble means. 

12z GEFS yesterday for day 13 vs 12z GEFS today for day 12. 

 

Yesterday’s loss of Canadian Arctic heights and merged PV - dropped in favour of today’s maintenance of heights, Greenland ridge and well-separated lobes of the PV, and as a result, downstream a deeper Northern European trough, its core low heights held back further west. 

A very different perspective may be derived for the potential longevity of the forthcoming cold spell. 

Over the next few days, keeping an eye on the development of these aspects will inform our expectations for the Northern Hemisphere profile that will underpin our setup for week 2. It doesn’t matter even if the means for later in week 2 are indeed way off the mark right now. 

Studying the way that they gradually converge towards a consensus first with each other and then with the operational runs is valuable not only for the enjoyment of it, but also both as a learning exercise and to hone our interpretation skills, particularly for this specific type of scenario, and of course, precisely because the models are struggling with it in the longer timeframes. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Here is the NAVGEM at 180 @Mark wheeler

another good looking chart.

 

 

[KTtom]

1 hour ago, Scott Ingham said:

He didn’t say they were poor and they are far from poor. There were just a few more runs that went milder but the vast majority show what we’ve expected for over a week now. I really wouldn’t be worrying too much.

Here is what he said.. The poster @TSNWKwas correct.

"There’s no two ways about it really, this is a poor set from the EPS." 

Edited January 7 by KTtom

[TEITS]

10 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

West based nao at the end but its better than the 00z overall!!keep an eye on that little cold pool northwest greenland in future runs between 144 and 168 hours!!!!could derail everything quite a bit if it dont get absorbed further west or further east!!!!

No the ECM doesn't show a W based NAO.

Take a look at the N Hemisphere chart and note the pressure in Svalbard at +168 is 1000mb. By +240 the pressure increases to 1030mb. So the opposite is true if you run the sequence you will see the Arctic HP transfer E.

If ECM went out further I believe you would be looking at a prolonged cold spell with winds veering towards an E,ly.

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, KTtom said:

Here is what he said.. The poster was correct.

"There’s no two ways about it really, this is a poor set from the EPS." 

In your opinion. Not mine

[ScottSnow]

I’ve been out playing golf today and then doing some work this evening so I haven’t really looked at the models until now.

It’s going great as far as I can tell. The general pattern is there across all the models. Obviously the theme varies on each model but that’s to be expected a week away.

I think if we get to Wednesday evening and everything is still intact then we can start to get excited.

Regarding snowfall, there’s no point in even thinking about amounts at this stage. Let’s get the cold in first and opportunities will arise. Take parts of Cumbria in early Dec, heavy snow popped up at very short notice.

Overall though we are definitely heading in the right direction.

Edited January 7 by ScottSnow

[KTtom]

6 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

In your opinion. Not mine

Sorry, I think you misunderstand. You said M4cast didnt say the eps were poor...my quote is what M4cast said this morning, its not my opinion its what he said. Page 239

Edited January 7 by KTtom