Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Snowman.]

I think it’s good to raise the difference in the radar and what was shown in the models. Certainly a big blob in the SE, which none of the models really went with only showing light scattered showers. 
 

Remember this next time a day 8 GFS chart shows a cold but dry UK! 

[Vikos]

If you  look into the stratosphere, around the 15th/16th January, a significant weakening of the zonal winds in 10 hPa at 60 N is ongoing. 
This can be seen as a clear indicator of an SSW.

However, there is no indication of a polar vortex split, just a “displacement”.
Nevertheless, this process (“minor warming”) could pave the way for cold phases
over Europe because the westerly wind drift (weakening jet stream) is responding
Then about 7 to 14 days later often subsides and blocking highs cold
Air masses could shovel towards the European continent.

Since mid-October due to westerly weather conditions with lots of wind and rain and mostly
which was characterized by mild temperatures, has now been completely changed. The main cause is a
wedge rising far to the north over the northeast Atlantic, located between 2
powerful long-wave troughs (one over the North American continent, one
over Scandinavia) to the south of Greenland and to the Norwegian Sea
could. This Omega pattern proves to be very robust into the medium term.
Although it gradually shifts somewhat retrogradely, it acts as
Blocking into the lower atmosphere and even leaves the Rossby wave number
go back from the current 6 to 7 to 4 to 5. So the wave patterns move
slower, which could increase the persistence of the block.

from German DWD synoptic mid range outlook 

Edited January 8 by Vikos

[danm]

7 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

I think it’s good to raise the difference in the radar and what was shown in the models. Certainly a big blob in the SE, which none of the models really went with only showing light scattered showers. 
 

Remember this next time a day 8 GFS chart shows a cold but dry UK! 

Precisely, it's model related as far as I'm concerned. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

OK folks things are shaping up very nicely indeed.

Think El Nino..think background drivers...think we ain't just in the game we are winning the game!

I know some try to pattern match with past failures.. but if we end up with a flat zonal pattern with all these favourable drivers we wouldn't be just unlucky but CURSED!

Edited January 8 by MATTWOLVES 3

[mfhblue]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Just looking at the sat pic for midday French time and noticed this long almost continuous narrow cloud band . I wonder if it’s a trough . And yes I need to get out more !

I was watching the same earlier. I think it's due to the slight convergence zone along the northern Dutch cost. I am hoping (not expecting) it might fire a few showers in my direction (NW home counties) later on when the steering winds back more from NE to ENE. As I say, hoping, not expecting at all.

[Zero Visibility]

6 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

OK folks things are shaping up very nicely indeed.

Think El Nino..think background drivers...think we ain't just in the game we are winning the game!

Yeah Matt, very interesting read, when Exeter are confident with all the background signals we stand up and take notice. Let's hope we are well into the countdown to witness for ourselves all the jigsaw pieces finally positioning in our favour! 

 

 

[Malarky]

7 minutes ago, mfhblue said:

I was watching the same earlier. I think it's due to the slight convergence zone along the northern Dutch cost. I am hoping (not expecting) it might fire a few showers in my direction (NW home counties) later on when the steering winds back more from NE to ENE. As I say, hoping, not expecting at all.

The convergence zone was on the latest fax I think.

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Control day 8 /9

If only that vortex over Scandi dropped 700/800 miles I'd be proper happy, just feel it's a tad to the north, still time for things to change at that range.

[Alexis]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

We are in unchartered territory I feel..i would say how at this range the models will nearly always revert back to a climatology normal,reform the PV and put it back in its natural home. And they will do this more with a pattern we have now and are struggling with a desired solution. Background drivers could well be giving the pattern another kick at this point also! 

Obviously we don't want to be seeing a strong pv towards the NW at this stage as it can literally rule the roost and override other forcers! But going on what I'm seeing currently and those met updates I've got a feeling the pv could be remaining weak for the duration.

Significant cold clustering out towards mid month on the ens

I think that's Manchester, New Hampshire

[Mcconnor8]

3 minutes ago, Alexis said:

I think that's Manchester, New Hampshire

Wouldn't mind trading for those 850s instead though!

[Jacob]

Looking good in the ensembles and there seems to be a very heavy marginal snow event in my location 

[Zero Visibility]

Interesting, Exeter already updated the extended extended, go take a look.

[Paul_1978]

4 minutes ago, Zero Visibility said:

Interesting, Exeter already updated the extended extended, go take a look.

Says updated at 15:00 today and yet it is only 13:30!?!? 

Regardless, a good update if it is cold/snow you are after.

[mountain shadow]

TV forecasts now also following the models for next week. 

All systems go.

 

[minus10]

Phew !... ...hard to keep pace with the threads and all that is going on..

Nice set of ensembles..

Gfs, Ecm and Gem..

..the amomalies still look solid for Ingham day...(15th)

Gfs, Eps , Gem

..and i saw some snow grains this morning to boot...

..feels proper cold out there..home made soup day for sure..

..right...now ...must check the radar..

 

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

TV forecasts now also following the models for next week. 

All systems go.

 

Seen that and mentioned disruptive snow

[Andy8472]

NMME update

[offerman]

23 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

TV forecasts now also following the models for next week. 

All systems go.

 

Forecasting, cold and snow is extremely difficult in this country so much so that now they’ve decided to employ two presenters at the same time  hopefully this will double our chances

[mountsbaysnow]

22 minutes ago, booferking said:

Seen that and mentioned disruptive snow

Got a feeling we're about to experience something special, even the royal mail have a hunch.  

[Notty]

On 03/01/2024 at 15:55, TSNWK said:

Pint of what @Nottyis drinking please barman!

Did you get a pint after @TSNWK ?

UK weather: Snow hits south-east England as cold snap takes hold https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67911371

Edited January 8 by Notty
Correction

[Mike Poole]

ECM 6z control, T144:

Clean as a whistle, this one!  Wallop!

[booferking]

Ecm upgrade both control and mean compared to 00z.

[sheikhy]

Look at this belter of am ecm06z control at 144 hours!!!.....

 

[PiscesStar]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Look at this belter of am ecm06z control at 144 hours!!!.....

 

This is a beaut

[seabreeze86]

Lovely upgrade from the 6z ECM , expecting fireworks tonight