Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[mountain shadow]

Just now, booferking said:

More runs needed

Short wave drama to the last!

Will delay the cold plunge.

[booferking]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

Short wave drama to the last!

Will delay the cold plunge.

Yet again.

[seabreeze86]

Band of snow moving south on the ECM at 168hrs

[Spah1]

The ECM 168hrs just looks like we will lose the heights over Greenland and low pressure will fill in. 

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Short wave drama to the last!

Will delay the cold plunge.

Think that comes about because the Azores low is very badly positioned and angled on this run, cold running into a block to the south as things stand.

[Cloud 10]

ECM 168 snow event for some.

 

[Day 10]

In order of preference.

GFS has the strongest block followed by the UKMO then ECM.

Day 7

[seabreeze86]

4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Short wave drama to the last!

Will delay the cold plunge.

Big snow event for the north though 

[booferking]

Just now, Cloud 10 said:

ECM 168 snow event for some.

 

Snow event for Scotland & parts of North England.

[Met4Cast]

I'll take a messy evolution if we end up here..

[Sweatyman]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

I'll take a messy evolution if we end up here..

absolutely!  looks ace

[MattStoke]

Can’t believe the cold air has yet again been pushed back from the 15th to the 15th:

[Derecho]

Things are looking a lot messier on these runs, the Azores low remaining stagnant is an issue as we want pressure to start lowering over Spain.

'

Shortwave drama to the NW also complicating things. A step back this evening unfortunately but minor changes and the picture changes completely.

Might just be a temporary thing being picked up by the models or a mere delay in advecting the cold if subsequent frames are to go by. More runs needed.

Edited January 8 by Derecho

[Harsh Climate]

There's no getting away from the ECM looking great for the northern half of the UK and less so for the southern half. Not any bias here just the way I see this run

Edited January 8 by Harsh Climate

[February1978]

Looks like it's getting there but that low to the SW is an issue

[seabreeze86]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

I'll take a messy evolution if we end up here..

All within the envelope as Bluearmy would say 

The main take from the day is heights are almost a certainty in get to Greenland everything after that is up for grabs 

[Nick123]

Sorry if this has already been asked but what is a shortwave?

[IDO]

ECM looks close to the GFS:

[Scott Ingham]

1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

I might have to take a break from this thread, far too many getting emotional over weather charts, nothing has changed. 

GEFS mean is nice. Broad direction of travel remains exactly the same. 

I agree! People are still over analysing individual operational runs. The means are solid all is counting down and will count down in my opinion it’s just how long it will be cold for and how much snow. It’s crazy the amount of over reaction sometimes in here it’s why I go missing for some days!

1 hour ago, Rayth said:

Control off on one for sure 

 

Look at the increase in stragglers between -10 and -15! That’s the most I’ve seen up to yet

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, IDO said:

ECM looks close to the GFS:

But ec ejects the Arctic ridge our side of the NH which will make quite a difference 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Patience folks the ecm will deliver..keep the toys in prams for a while longer.

Folks these ain't your everyday sypnotics and the models do struggle with these set ups..Things are gonna keep changing from to run...like you said to your missus on the big day....for better or worse!!! But we remain ina very encouraging position this evening..

Don't be making me get my El nino charts out again..I can't take it anymore

 

Edited January 8 by MATTWOLVES 3

[Harsh Climate]

Well it gets there by the 17th, great for everywhere here

[sheikhy]

Scrap what i said few mins ago and go with what i said 35 mins ago which was the ecm was gona be a beast of a run!!!thats exactly what is in the end!!what a comeback!!!

[Hatewarmth]

19 minutes ago, JimBob said:

The writing has been on the wall for the south for a few days and after the next couple of coldish days, looks chilly and average for the weekend and possibly turning much milder next week. 

Not too sure why you’re saying this. Your post is very misleading with respect. Can you send charts to support your statement as all the model are saying it will turn colder even in the south from next Monday onwards

 

granted the further north you are the longer it will stay colder but your statement is not an accurate reflection of what the models are showing 

[Snowman.]

She's a slapper!